With the Tennessee Titans hoping to spring the big upset this weekend at Baltimore, Shawn Siegele goes under the hood with the Games Splits app to analyze the impact of Ryan Tannehill.
The Game Splits app is one of our most popular offerings. It allows users to create splits based on teammates, defenses, game situations, and much more. While we want to keep in mind that some of these results are merely coincidental, it’s fun to dive into the tool and see how players have performed in different situations.
Offensive Impact of Ryan Tannehill
We’ll start by using the our sibling tool, the Team Splits app, to look at Tannehill’s impact on the entire offense.
The numbers here are staggering. While the Titans’ run/pass split and total plays remained almost identical, they increased by 0.8 points per drive. That per-drive efficiency added eight 8.0 points per game.
We can see Tannehill’s impact directly in the passing game. He increased yards per attempt by over a yard and a half (8.0 to 9.6), an increase in efficiency that pushed their passing game over a 4,000-yard pace.
This improved competency in the passing game made Derrick Henry almost impossible to defend.
Ryan Tannehill’s Insertion Led to an Epic Run from Henry
Henry averaged over 22 PPG with Tannehill. These are crazy numbers when you consider that his volume was essentially stagnant from a touch perspective. If we use the NFL Stat Explorer to evaluate the quality of the touches, those didn’t change dramatically either, rising from 11.8 rushing Expected Points (ruEP) over the first month to 12.3 thereafter.
But in a more efficient offense, Henry’s generational size/speed combo steamrolled opposing defenses.
Over the second half of the season, Henry posted four separate games with double digits in fantasy points over expectation (ruFPOE).
Tannehill’s Presence Helped A.J. Brown Join the History Books
Brown did see a jump in volume with Tannehill, although much of that was likely due to normal rookie development. He was on the field much more frequently after the first month.
Buoyed by his connection with Tannehill, Brown finished his rookie season with the second most fantasy points over expectation (FPOE) of any rookie receiver in the last 20 years. He trailed only Odell Beckham.
The Strange Case of Corey Davis
We examined the bounceback potential for Davis in Reloading in Dynasty: 6 Bounceback WRs to Target in 2020. In that article, I noted the strange splits for the former top-five pick.
It’s reasonable to assume Davis had been marginalized after the quarterback change. What actually happened is bizarre. Davis’ 16-game target pace dropped from only 76 to 73, but his yardage pace dropped from 804 to 582. His catch percentage dropped and his TDs declined.
Of course, if we take a longer view, his volume also declined over his 2018 numbers. It’s just that the decline was already in place over the first month of the season.
As you get ready to enjoy the playoff games this weekend, make sure to check out the Game Splits app for the Titans and other teams. While you’re there, you may get pulled in by a few of our other offerings.1
Image Credit: Steve Roberts/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Ryan Tannehill.
- For those interested in dynasty, prospects, and best ball, we also have a wide variety of tools in these areas. (back)