Go From Novice to Expert With the Best Ball Workshop – Lesson 1 Shows How to Boost Your Win Rate With a Rare QB Hack
Image Credit: Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Lamar Jackson.

The RotoViz Best Ball Workshop uses intelligence from the Roster Construction Explorer to beat your competitors at every position.

Did the lessons lead to success last year? Why are drafters still not utilizing one of the three key pillars to QB selection? Just how much can you boost your win rate with a counterintuitive hack? Shawn Siegele has the answers in the debut of the 2020 workshop.

The Roster Construction Explorer is nothing short of revelatory. Every time I open Mike Beers’ signature creation, I lose hours out of my day. From a fantasy perspective, those have been some of the best hours I’ve ever spent.

With the ability to test a wide variety of constructions and time frames, it lets us pull back the curtain and build a plan to dominate our leagues.

In the 2019 version of the Workshop we used the RCE to examine trends from 2015 to 2018. Did our 2019 recommendations pay off?

When I entered all of our lessons into the RCE, I was ready for solid results. The actual results blew me away. Lineups that followed all of the recommendations in the Workshop returned a 14.7% win rate with a whopping 68.4% finishing in the top six.

Win Rates by Lesson

Of course, it’s unusual for drafters to follow all of the lessons. In any given draft you may need to maintain flexibility and be alert for any serious values at the individual player level. Let’s look at how the individual lessons performed.

 
Win Rate Top Six
RB Lesson 12.4 55.6
WR Lesson 8.9 50.7
QB Lesson 9.3 53.3
TE Lesson 11.4 58.9
DEF Lesson 9.9 56.0

All of our individual lessons earned a win rate of at least 8.9%. Of course, these win rates include owners who are making big mistakes in other areas of the draft. We can see the value of executing multiple lessons when we look at some of the combinations.

 
Win Rate Top Six
All Flex Lessons 18.8 69.7
QB/DEF Lessons 10.5 58.3

If you executed the lessons for all of the flex-eligible positions (RB, WR, TE), your win rate jumped to almost 19%. If you simply made easy choices at QB and DEF, top-six finishes came in at a healthy 58%.

If you’re new to the best ball world, you can vault most experienced players simply by executing the lessons from the Workshop. If you’re already an expert, you’ll discover a few counterintuitive moves to supercharge your stellar results. The best ball tools will pay back your subscription many times over.

Today we start with Lesson 1 from the 2020 workshop. We’ll focus on the QB position, including one controversial move that combines safety and upside in a single, underutilized tactic.

Want to dive into RB and WR analysis? Jack Miller examines the biggest development from 2019 and explains why it might be exploitable in 2020.

Best Ball Workshop: Lesson 1 – How to Execute at QB

2-QB vs. 3-QB

From 2015 to 2018, 2-QB constructions held an 8.8% to 8.1% advantage in win percentage. The 2019 results were similar.

Owners also prefer the stronger construction by a little more than 3-2. There’s a little more to this story, though, as we’ll get to in a minute.

Don’t Reach for the Stars

From 2015 to 2018, drafters who selected a QB in the first five rounds only won 6.5% of the time. Despite the presence of Patrick Mahomes as a generational QB, that win percentage fell in 2019.

Owners generally know not to select a QB early. The popularity of this construction declined in 2019 even with a transcendent talent like Mahomes in play.

While owners have these basics right, they’re not implementing the third key element of a winning QB approach.

The QB Window

While you need to wait until Round 6 to take your QB1, you also don’t want to wait beyond R12 to select your QB2. From 2015 to 2018, owners who selected their QB2 by Round 12 held a 9.7% to 7.7% advantage in win rate. It remained a key in 2019.

2-QB in Window (2019)

The 2019 results are fueled by Lamar Jackson and his 20.8% win rate, but that’s exactly the point. The longer you wait in your draft for a QB2, the less exposure you’ll have to QBs with league-winning upside.

Selecting both QBs in the window has returned a win rate above 9% in every season from 2015 to 2019, but that method remained under 50% adoption in 2019. Even if you select your QB1 in Round 6 or later, selecting your QB2 after Round 12 has provided a win rate above 9% only once during this time period.

The 3-QB Hack

We know 3-QB constructions have trailed by a wide margin. After learning about the QB Window, we might suspect that the failure of 3-QB has more to do with selections outside the window than it does using an extra roster spot at QB.

What if we opt for a 3-QB construction and select our third QB by Round 12?

3-QB in the Window (2019)

Our win percentage skyrockets to 10.9, the top-six percentage jumps to almost 58.6%, and the average score vaults to 2276.

This isn’t a one-year fluke. We recommended it as a secret hack to dominating your draft last season. “3-QB in the window” averaged a 10.5% win rate over the previous four years and has been above 10% in every year except for the RB Apocalypse of 2015.

This 2019 result is even more impressive when you consider that 3-DEF was more powerful than it has been in any individual year prior to this point.

2-DEF vs 3-DEF (2019)

Drafters are reluctant to deploy these two techniques together. Only 418 of the more than 2,500 3-QB owners also used 3-DEF. Despite losing out on the 3-DEF bump, 3-QB in the window was still dominant.

We’ll take a closer look at how to approach your defensive choices in an upcoming lesson.

FFPC Roster Construction Explorer and Other Tools

Don’t forget to check out the FFPC Roster Construction Explorer and our full suite of FFPC Best Ball tools. The Exposures and ADP tool allows you to track the latest ADP developments and monitor your person player portfolio. The Best Ball Command Center is the ultimate in-draft tool.

Image Credit: Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Lamar Jackson.

Shawn Siegele

Author of the original Zero RB article and 2013 NFFC Primetime Grand Champion. 11-time main event league winner. 2015, 2017, 2018 titles in MFL10 of Death.
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