In case you missed everything else that RotoViz has ever done, production metrics matter when it comes to predicting future NFL success for wide receivers. However, finding what really matters, and how much it matters is tough. So, last year I took a look at some of the most impactful production variables and combined them to create what I call the Adjusted Production Index. It’s simple. It combines just three production variables to tell a more complete story of a player’s overall production profile.
We’re all (for the most part) familiar with Dominator Rating; the simple combination of receiving yardage and touchdown market share.
But then there’s Yards Per Team Pass Attempt. It’s exactly what it sounds like. This speaks to a player’s efficiency within the scope of his team’s offense, not just volume potential.
And lastly, we have Touchdowns Per Team Pass Attempt. It’s certainly the least sticky variable of the three, but don’t let that fool you. Players scoring touchdowns at a high rate don’t always score the most fantasy points at the next level, but there is a strong correlation to draft capital.
When you combine the three you get a pretty good look at who a player is, and when you mix it with draft capital things get pretty fun. But where does the “adjusted” part come into the name?
Each variable only assesses the games in which the players played. And it’s also looking at “peak” production for each. This allows us to properly adjust for small windows of injury where a player could not produce. It also shows us what a player’s “best” looks like. Various external factors like quarterback play, offensive scheme change, among many other things can often lead to at least one down year in a player’s profile that can slightly affect their career numbers.
If you want to further discuss the analytical and anecdotal reasons for this, find me on Twitter @FF_TravisM. I’d be glad to dive into it with you. And if you want to dig into the historical impact of the metric, feel free to dig more into last year’s introduction to the Adjusted Production Index. But for now, let’s check out the top receivers in the 2020 rookie class!
Firstly, this isn’t a “Top 30 Rookie WR Rankings” chart. It is sorted by Adjusted Production Index and draft capital. Why? Meeting both a 60th% API and top-100 draft capital (typically Day 2 cutoff) thresholds renders an incredible hit rate. So use those as your preliminary guide to likely hit rate before we tackle individual receivers.