In The Blitz, RotoViz writers react to the latest news and help you place it within the context of our 2020 research and recommendations.
I’ve spoken about patience in several articles over the past year. In dynasty leagues, patience is paramount. There’s a time for reacting and a time for holding. Perceptions of value change each week. Dynasty owners, if they are not careful, can find themselves chasing those changing perceptions and giving up value in the process. For a young, athletic tight end, patience seems to be paying off.
Miami Dolphins tight end Mike Gesicki was able to score a touchdown for the second time in two weeks during the Thursday night victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Gesicki hauled in one of three targets for 15 yards and one touchdown. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick only had 20 passing attempts in this one, so it was a bit of an odd game. Regardless, Gesicki carries TE1 value into a favorable matchup versus the Seattle Seahawks’ shaky pass defense in Week 4.
The Game of Patience
It’s no secret that tight ends tend to take a bit longer to acclimate to the professional level compared to other offensive skill positions. We expect running backs with early draft capital to produce right away, and wide receivers to be a part of the game plan even if it takes them a season to get comfortable.
Through his first 23 games, Gesicki averaged just over three points/game. In his last 12 games, he’s averaged 12.4 points/game.
Gesicki’s athletic profile is well known.
He’s also beginning to see more consistent usage in the offense. It remains to be seen how long Gesicki will have Fitzpatrick throwing him the ball. Still, he should remain an integral part of the game plan even after Tua Tagovailoa takes over.
Dating back to Week 9 of last season, when Gesicki started breaking out, he’s seen a bump in both targets and air yards. Both are excellent indicators that a player is not only getting attention from his quarterback but that he’s getting valuable looks down the field.
Almost seven targets/game is a wonderful floor of opportunity for a tight end. Gesicki can operate as a downfield option in the passing game, which shows up in his air yards.
Over his last 12 games, Gesicki is averaging over 73 air yards/game (16 game pace of over 1,100 air yards). He has a 20% target share through the first three games of the season. For reference, here are all the tight ends that topped 700 total air yards in 2019:
Here are all the tight ends who posted a target share of at least 16% last season:
It’s only been three games, but that’s enough to start identifying trends. If Gesicki can maintain his heavy involvement in the passing game, he has the potential to be a top-six TE this season. The positive game script in their Week 3 victory allowed Fitzpatrick to attempt only 20 passes. I wouldn’t count on that every week, which should bode well for Gesicki.