Groupthink can run rampant through the fantasy football grapevines and cause DFSers to concentrate on just one scenario in a player’s possible range of outcomes. What was once a good play in a vacuum can become sub-optimal as chalk. What may feel thin at first may be plus-EV at low ownership.
Because of the salary cap, DFS is about opportunity costs — finding a combination of players that will optimize the points in your lineup. Rostering player X has ripple effects throughout the rest of your lineup. We will run through some of these most important if/then roster construction decisions.
I’m primarily a small-field tournament player and will use this space to discuss specific players and roster constructions that I’m targeting this week.
SCENARIO 1: IF YOU NORMALLY WORRY ABOUT CHALK, WEEK 4 OWNERSHIP IS SPREAD OUT
With the number of expected high-scoring games (10 games with a total over 47), ownership is largely spread out this week. For GPPs that means we can be less worried about falling into extremely chalky plays, making it easier to differentiate our rosters.
But with so many good plays, that also means we may need to take a stand on some players.
SCENARIO 2: IF NOT PAYING $8K FOR QB, THEN DESHAUN WATSON.