Late-Round Quarterback has been a staple of value-based drafting strategy for nearly a decade. Are we seeing the tides turn as many are advocating for drafting early-round dual-threat QBs?
The two primary ways to measure the success of fantasy football draft picks are production and value, with production largely measured by fantasy points and value accounting for the cost to acquire (aka draft capital).
Earlier this offseason, Dave Caban wrote a fantastic article: The Quarterback Position Has Changed And This Is How To Exploit It In Fantasy. The key takeaway is:
Rushing production is reshaping the QB position, and its value relative to other positions has increased across the last decade.
After reading Dave’s article, you will be convinced that the fantasy football production of elite QBs has increased in recent years. But what about the cost?
THE DE-FLATTENING OF THE QB POSITION
At running back and wide receiver, the elites tend to dominate the position, as there is an exponential increase in production for the earlier draft picks. On the other hand, scoring at the QB position has traditionally been relatively flat. The top QBs haven’t provided nearly as much value over replacement as the top RBs and WRs. Positional value is made apparent with the Win The Flex App. The WTF is able to convert positional ADP into expected fantasy points.
Win The Flex, PPR Scoring, 2015-2019
From 2015 to 2019, the top of the QB position was extremely flat with virtually no change in expected fantasy points from the most coveted QBs until the point of inflection around Pick 100.
But in 2020, we saw the elite QBs separate themselves from the rest of the pack.