The Fantasy Fallout from Aaron Jones’ Decision Offers Big Opportunities for Fantasy Owners
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Image Credit: Lawrence Iles/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Aaron Jones.

Aaron Jones re-signed with the Packers on a four-year, $48 million contract with a $13 million signing bonus. The move keeps Jones in Green Bay and causes headaches for A.J. Dillon owners.

Over the past two seasons, only Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry, and Alvin Kamara have scored more fantasy points than Jones. Only Henry has generated more than Jones’ 106.3 fantasy points over expectation (FPOE), numbers that reflect his explosive 5.0 yards per carry average and 30 total touchdowns.

Jones has averaged 19.2 PPG over this stretch with RB1 finishes in 43% of the contests. He’s a potential league-crushing weapon on any given Sunday with five 30-plus outings in that span.

Despite belonging to the elite group of RBs, fantasy owners are once again split on his prospects. He enters the week at RB12 in FFPC drafts, well below the tier that includes his peers in scoring and talent.

With the selection of Dillon in the second round of the 2020 NFL draft and with the Packers opting against the franchise tag, fantasy owners were anticipating a move to somewhere like Miami, where Jones would have been projected to earn a larger share of the team’s opportunities.

Will Jones’ ADP take another hit as a result of the Green Bay return? He was already giving away enough points to Jamaal Williams that his backfield mate returned RB2 numbers 35% of the time. It could get even worse as Dillon moves into his second year. Owners are justifiably reluctant about Jones splitting time with a size/speed specimen who looks like the second coming of Derrick Henry. Dillon’s 26-point game in Week 15 and gaudy 5.3 yards per carry on 43 rookie totes did little to discourage that comparison.

Dillon owners are even more distraught. A back who had already ascended out of Zero RB range at RB25 now faces the prospect of spending his peak years as a backup.

Aaron Jones, Advanced Stats, and Big Opportunities

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Shawn Siegele

Author of the original Zero RB article and 2013 NFFC Primetime Grand Champion. 11-time main event league winner. 2015, 2017, 2018 titles in MFL10 of Death.

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