The frenzied search for quantifiable edges in best ball tournaments is heating up this offseason with average draft position (ADP) value emerging as one of the most promising. ADP value is a metric that quantifies the extent to which a drafter is reaching or scooping falling players throughout the draft. Preliminary findings have shown correlation between higher ADP value (less reaching, more scooping) and higher regular season points totals, but does that tell the full story? What about week-to-week scoring ceiling? Can scooping ADP value go too far? Let’s dive into one of the most talked about best ball strategies!
The Distribution of ADP Value
ADP value is calculated by subtracting the ADP at the time of the draft from the overall pick number that each player on a team was selected and adding it up. Positive values mean a drafter scooped more falling players; negative values mean a player reached more.
Let’s begin our investigation by orienting ourselves with the distribution of ADP value across all teams in Underdog’s Best Ball Mania 2 (BBM2) and Best Ball Mania 3 (BBM3) tournaments. ADP value takes the shape of a classic normal distribution with the overwhelming majority of teams falling within -100 and +100 ADP value.
