Curtis Patrick reviews the performance of key 2023 rookie quarterbacks and tight ends and provides strategic notes for dynasty fantasy football application.
Dynasty Command Center 2023: Week 4 – Rookie Synopsis
Many rookies from the 2023 NFL Draft class have outperformed fantasy football expectations after just three weeks of action. Others seem to be just existing, and some are still lying dormant. Breakouts occur on different schedules for every player not only based on their own skills and adjustment to the NFL, but also based on team environment.
With 19% of the fantasy season available to study, it’s time to check-in on this year’s class and assign a dynasty outlook. As I’ve focused quite a bit on running backs and wide receivers in previous pieces and on the Dynasty Command Center Podcast, I’m honing in on quarterbacks and tight ends this week.
For an overview of what’s going on in the NFL from a macro perspective, which also serves as foundational discussion for this week’s Dynasty Command Center, be sure to check out the work below as well.
Stroud is pretty clearly going to be a star. He’s performing as a QB1 in most passing and fantasy metrics in our NFL Stat Explorer. He’s averaging 302 passing yards per game and still hasn’t thrown an interception. Stroud’s play is also elevating the likes of Nico Collins and Tank Dell, to the delight of dynasty managers everywhere. None of this should really be a surprise, other than how quickly it’s happened.
CJ Stroud percentile ranks among all QBs since 2005
Comp % – 97th percentile
TD/INT ratio – 99th percentile
Total Yds/GM – 98th percentile
Total TDs/GM – 99th percentile
*min 100 career passes
— Curtis Patrick (@CPatrickNFL) March 8, 2023
Both Shawn Siegele and I have moved Stroud inside our top 13 in RotoViz TriFlex dynasty rankings.
How to Play It
From a dynasty perspective, it’s important to also factor in that Houston will probably add another major wide receiver prospect in the 2024 NFL Draft. Trading for Stroud will probably be difficult unless you’re willing to move a top-tier QB and take the calculated risk on his continued ascension. As a guideline, consider moving off Joe Burrow or Trevor Lawrence for Stroud and a future second.