The Wrong Read has had many lives — first as a reflection on insights from the RotoViz podcasts; then as a freeform space for exploring a variety of metrics and strategies. It will likely continue in that latter function, but at least for now — in season — it’s an in-depth matchup lookahead article.

Each week I’ll gather advanced stats from our tools — mainly the Advanced Team Stat Explorer — to paint a picture of the upcoming week and offer some thoughts on how the games might unfold. My interest is in how the games will impact fantasy teams, and as such I’m looking mainly at the metrics that I think can help us predict how different teams and players will (or won’t) score fantasy points.

This is an early week preview featuring the Thursday night and Saturday games. Stay tuned for the full version later in the week.

New York Jets at Cleveland Browns

• The Jets and the Browns are No. 1 and No. 2 in dropbacks per game over the last eight weeks. This figures to be a game with a lot of pass attempts.
• Trevor Siemian is making his second start as Zach Wilson has not yet cleared the concussion protocol. Although Siemian played well enough to lead the Jets to a win against Washington, things will be much tougher against Cleveland. The Browns are No. 1 in every EPA-based pass defense metric, and No. 2 in passing game FPOE allowed.
• Cleveland is more beatable on the ground, suggesting the Jets would do well to lean on their running game. Breece Hall is coming off the best game of his career, though it’s worth noting that much of his production came as a receiver. Israel Abanikanda also played well against the Commanders, but is questionable for Week 17 with an ankle injury.
• Perhaps no duo has been better in recent weeks than Joe Flacco and Amari Cooper. The two aging veterans have helped each other revive their careers, along with the Browns’ playoff hopes. Cleveland is now all but certain to make the playoffs — even two losses to close out the regular season still gives them a 99% chance to play on Wild Card weekend. Cooper is listed as questionable with a heel injury, and if it turns out he won’t play or is limited, David Njoku has also been one of Flacco’s favorite targets.
• That said, the Jets’ passing defense is strong. From a fantasy perspective they are much more forgiving in the running game. While the Browns haven’t been particularly good at evading tackles, Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt might have an opportunity to make some of the Jets’ defenders miss and break off big plays.

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys

• Dallas has been almost unstoppable at home, and Detroit’s league-worst pass defense won’t put up much resistance. The Lions are dead last in every EPA metric relating to pass defense.
• Considering that the Lions have a much stronger run defense, this is unlikely to be a game in which we see Tony Pollard do much on the ground. His involvement in the passing game has been inconsistent — he saw only one target against Miami last week — but with Rico Dowdle already ruled out, Pollard should get most of the backfield work to himself.
• Regardless, the way to attack Detroit is through the air, and CeeDee Lamb figures to be the focal point of that attack. Jake Ferguson is in play for some red zone looks, but Detroit has been better against TEs than WRs.
• The Lions also enter with an explosive offense against a Cowboys defense that is susceptible through the air. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta are both players you need to keep in your fantasy lineup, and Jameson Williams is quickly making his case to be on fantasy radars. That said, the Passing Matchup Rater is less optimistic.

• Dallas does give up a high rate of successful plays on the ground, which is potentially good news for Jahmyr Gibbs. The rookie was in the game for nearly every important play a week ago while David Montgomery watched from the sideline. Gibbs’ talent as both a rusher and a receiver likely keeps this trend going — not only does he offer more flexibility, but he also doesn’t tip Detroit’s hand.