Blair Andrews

Managing Editor, Author of The Wrong Read, Occasional Fantasy Football League Winner. All opinions are someone else's.

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In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

The Paradox of Jalen Reagor and the Problem of WR Speed: A 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile

The 2020 wide receiver class is famous for its glut of elite prospects, with seven different receivers expected to be first rounders, according to Grinding the Mocks. One of those outside the first round is Jalen Reagor. Yet many aspects of Reagor’s profile make him look like he deserves to be at the top of the rankings. Is it possible to be sleeping on a player who will probably garner a top-40 pick? Should the red flags in Reagor’s profile push his draft stock down further? Jalen Reagor Is Both the Most and the Least Productive Top WR By some accounts,

Does Hand Size Matter for Wide Receivers? The Wrong Read, No. 61

Welcome to the 61st installment of The Wrong Read. Shawn Siegele’s recent article on 2020 Freak Scores linked to some classic work by Fantasy Douche that renewed my interest in wide receiver hand size. We know, on the one hand, that production is all that matters for WRs. But on the other hand, that last sentence can’t possibly be literally true. So the question is, how do we best measure a metric’s real impact? In a surprise to no one, Henry Ruggs ran a 4.27 forty at the NFL combine. If you’re moving Ruggs up your board after he showed

Justin Jefferson Is the Only Rookie WR Who Checks Every Box: A 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile

Coming off a national title win, Justin Jefferson chose to declare for the NFL Draft instead of returning for his senior season. He enters after a true junior season that saw him catch 111 passes for over 1,500 receiving yards and 18 receiving touchdowns. He’s not the top WR in nearly anyone’s rankings, but if we put his production in some context, he’s got a good case for the top spot in the class. College Production Jefferson was a three-star recruit from Destrehan, Louisiana — about a 1.5-hour drive from LSU’s stadium. His home state university was by far the

Which WR Prospect Metrics Tell Us Something Unique? The Wrong Read, No. 60

I seem to have become obsessed with correlation matrices, so I’m just going to lean into it. Below you’ll find a correlation matrix with many of our favorite WR prospect evaluation metrics. This is admittedly a simplistic way to look at the predictiveness of various metrics. But there are a number of interesting things going on here, which I’ll point out below. Keep in mind that negative numbers are good for age and draft position. You want a player to be younger and drafted earlier. First, let me explain what some of these metrics are. Many are self-explanatory, but some

How to Use Expected Points in the Offseason: 4 More Correlation Matrices

Last week I looked at a variety of Expected-Points-based metrics to determine which were the most stable from one week to the next and which were the most predictive of fantasy scoring in future weeks. However, fantasy football is not only a weekly game — in most formats your lineup won’t vary much from one week to the next. Also, for most of our fantasy teams, 2019 is already in the books. So this week I want to do the same thing as last week, only with a longer time horizon. Which metrics are the most stable and most predictive

Zero RB Watch List: NFC Week 16 – Miles Sanders Is a “Buy High” Candidate

Blair Andrews examines the running back workloads for the most contentious NFC backfields ahead of Week 16. Every fantasy team can use a breakout RB, whether their owners drafted them as Zero-RB squads or not. The Zero RB Watch List helps to find these breakout stars before they hit. But it also helps you understand which of the high-profile backs you should be buying and selling based on workload shifts. We’ll use the RotoViz Screener and the NFL Stat Explorer to dive into the advanced stats for the NFC backfields where battles still rage, focusing on expected points (EP), fantasy

Why Do We Care About Expected Points? An Explanation in 4 Correlation Matrices

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can look at how players actually perform with their opportunity — how many points they actually score — and arrive at a player’s fantasy points over expectation (FPOE). FPOE turns out to be a catch-all efficiency

Zero RB Watch List: AFC Week 15 – He’s No Austin Ekeler, But Can Darwin Thompson Be the Guy for KC?

Blair Andrews examines the running back workloads for the most contentious AFC backfields ahead of Week 15. Almost every fantasy team can use a breakout RB, whether they were drafted as a Zero-RB squad or not. The Zero RB Watch List helps to find these breakout stars before they hit. But it also helps you understand which of the high-profile backs you should be buying and selling based on workload shifts. We’ll use the RotoViz Screener and the NFL Stat Explorer to dive into the Week 14 advanced stats for the AFC backfields that still feature committees and competitions, focusing

3 Rookies Become Year 2 Breakout Candidates: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 14

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can look at how players actually perform with their opportunity — how many points they actually score — and arrive at a player’s fantasy points over expectation (FPOE). FPOE turns out to be a catch-all efficiency

Zero RB Watch List: NFC Week 14 – Derrius Guice Gives Washington Hope, and Other NFC Battles to Watch

Blair Andrews examines the running back workloads for the most contentious NFC backfields ahead of Week 14. Every fantasy team can use a breakout RB, whether their owners drafted them as Zero-RB squads or not. The Zero RB Watch List helps to find these breakout stars before they hit. But it also helps you understand which of the high-profile backs you should be buying and selling based on workload shifts. We’ll use the RotoViz Screener and the NFL Stat Explorer to dive into the advanced stats for the NFC backfields where battles still rage, focusing on expected points (EP), fantasy

The Paradox of Jalen Reagor and the Problem of WR Speed: A 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile

The 2020 wide receiver class is famous for its glut of elite prospects, with seven different receivers expected to be first rounders, according to Grinding the Mocks. One of those outside the first round is Jalen Reagor. Yet many aspects of Reagor’s profile make him look like he deserves to be at the top of the rankings. Is it possible to be sleeping on a player who will probably garner a top-40 pick? Should the red flags in Reagor’s profile push his draft stock down further? Jalen Reagor Is Both the Most and the Least Productive Top WR By some accounts,

Does Hand Size Matter for Wide Receivers? The Wrong Read, No. 61

Welcome to the 61st installment of The Wrong Read. Shawn Siegele’s recent article on 2020 Freak Scores linked to some classic work by Fantasy Douche that renewed my interest in wide receiver hand size. We know, on the one hand, that production is all that matters for WRs. But on the other hand, that last sentence can’t possibly be literally true. So the question is, how do we best measure a metric’s real impact? In a surprise to no one, Henry Ruggs ran a 4.27 forty at the NFL combine. If you’re moving Ruggs up your board after he showed

Justin Jefferson Is the Only Rookie WR Who Checks Every Box: A 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile

Coming off a national title win, Justin Jefferson chose to declare for the NFL Draft instead of returning for his senior season. He enters after a true junior season that saw him catch 111 passes for over 1,500 receiving yards and 18 receiving touchdowns. He’s not the top WR in nearly anyone’s rankings, but if we put his production in some context, he’s got a good case for the top spot in the class. College Production Jefferson was a three-star recruit from Destrehan, Louisiana — about a 1.5-hour drive from LSU’s stadium. His home state university was by far the

Which WR Prospect Metrics Tell Us Something Unique? The Wrong Read, No. 60

I seem to have become obsessed with correlation matrices, so I’m just going to lean into it. Below you’ll find a correlation matrix with many of our favorite WR prospect evaluation metrics. This is admittedly a simplistic way to look at the predictiveness of various metrics. But there are a number of interesting things going on here, which I’ll point out below. Keep in mind that negative numbers are good for age and draft position. You want a player to be younger and drafted earlier. First, let me explain what some of these metrics are. Many are self-explanatory, but some

How to Use Expected Points in the Offseason: 4 More Correlation Matrices

Last week I looked at a variety of Expected-Points-based metrics to determine which were the most stable from one week to the next and which were the most predictive of fantasy scoring in future weeks. However, fantasy football is not only a weekly game — in most formats your lineup won’t vary much from one week to the next. Also, for most of our fantasy teams, 2019 is already in the books. So this week I want to do the same thing as last week, only with a longer time horizon. Which metrics are the most stable and most predictive

Zero RB Watch List: NFC Week 16 – Miles Sanders Is a “Buy High” Candidate

Blair Andrews examines the running back workloads for the most contentious NFC backfields ahead of Week 16. Every fantasy team can use a breakout RB, whether their owners drafted them as Zero-RB squads or not. The Zero RB Watch List helps to find these breakout stars before they hit. But it also helps you understand which of the high-profile backs you should be buying and selling based on workload shifts. We’ll use the RotoViz Screener and the NFL Stat Explorer to dive into the advanced stats for the NFC backfields where battles still rage, focusing on expected points (EP), fantasy

Why Do We Care About Expected Points? An Explanation in 4 Correlation Matrices

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can look at how players actually perform with their opportunity — how many points they actually score — and arrive at a player’s fantasy points over expectation (FPOE). FPOE turns out to be a catch-all efficiency

Zero RB Watch List: AFC Week 15 – He’s No Austin Ekeler, But Can Darwin Thompson Be the Guy for KC?

Blair Andrews examines the running back workloads for the most contentious AFC backfields ahead of Week 15. Almost every fantasy team can use a breakout RB, whether they were drafted as a Zero-RB squad or not. The Zero RB Watch List helps to find these breakout stars before they hit. But it also helps you understand which of the high-profile backs you should be buying and selling based on workload shifts. We’ll use the RotoViz Screener and the NFL Stat Explorer to dive into the Week 14 advanced stats for the AFC backfields that still feature committees and competitions, focusing

3 Rookies Become Year 2 Breakout Candidates: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 14

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can look at how players actually perform with their opportunity — how many points they actually score — and arrive at a player’s fantasy points over expectation (FPOE). FPOE turns out to be a catch-all efficiency

Zero RB Watch List: NFC Week 14 – Derrius Guice Gives Washington Hope, and Other NFC Battles to Watch

Blair Andrews examines the running back workloads for the most contentious NFC backfields ahead of Week 14. Every fantasy team can use a breakout RB, whether their owners drafted them as Zero-RB squads or not. The Zero RB Watch List helps to find these breakout stars before they hit. But it also helps you understand which of the high-profile backs you should be buying and selling based on workload shifts. We’ll use the RotoViz Screener and the NFL Stat Explorer to dive into the advanced stats for the NFC backfields where battles still rage, focusing on expected points (EP), fantasy

Does Hand Size Matter for Wide Receivers? The Wrong Read, No. 61

Welcome to the 61st installment of The Wrong Read. Shawn Siegele’s recent article on 2020 Freak Scores linked to some classic work by Fantasy Douche that renewed my interest in wide receiver hand size. We know, on the one hand, that production is all that matters for WRs. But on

Which WR Prospect Metrics Tell Us Something Unique? The Wrong Read, No. 60

I seem to have become obsessed with correlation matrices, so I’m just going to lean into it. Below you’ll find a correlation matrix with many of our favorite WR prospect evaluation metrics. This is admittedly a simplistic way to look at the predictiveness of various metrics. But there are a

How to Use Expected Points in the Offseason: 4 More Correlation Matrices

Last week I looked at a variety of Expected-Points-based metrics to determine which were the most stable from one week to the next and which were the most predictive of fantasy scoring in future weeks. However, fantasy football is not only a weekly game — in most formats your lineup

Why Do We Care About Expected Points? An Explanation in 4 Correlation Matrices

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform

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