Blair Andrews

Managing Editor, Author of The Wrong Read, Occasional Fantasy Football League Winner. All opinions are someone else's.

Author Archive

In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

Ultimate Zero RB Watch List: AFC Week 3 – Devin Singletary Will Not Be Denied

The Ultimate Zero RB Watch List provides analysis for Zero RB and RB-heavy owners alike. Blair Andrews examines the running back workloads for every NFC backfield from Week 1. Almost every fantasy team can use a breakout RB, whether they were drafted as a Zero-RB squad or not. The Ultimate Zero RB Watch List helps to find these breakout stars before they hit. But it also helps you understand which of the high-profile backs you should be buying and selling based on workload shifts. We’ll use the RotoViz tools to dive deep into the Week 1 advanced stats for every…...

The Rise of the Tight End and the Eclipse of the One-Dimensional Running Back: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 2

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can look out how players actually perform with their opportunity — how many points they actually score — and arrive at a player’s fantasy points over expectation (FPOE). FPOE turns out to be a catch-all efficiency…...

Ultimate Zero RB Watch List: NFC Week 2 – It’s Time to Admit Raheem Mostert Might Just Be That Good

The Ultimate Zero RB Watch List provides analysis for Zero RB and RB-heavy owners alike. Blair Andrews examines the running back workloads for every NFC backfield from Week 1. Check out Shawn Siegele’s companion piece on AFC backfields. Almost every fantasy team can use a breakout RB, whether they were drafted as a Zero-RB squad or not. The Ultimate Zero RB Watch List helps to find these breakout stars before they hit. But it also helps you understand which of the high-profile backs you should be buying and selling based on workload shifts. We’ll use the RotoViz tools to dive…...

2 Rookies Look Like Stars, Just Not the One You Were Hoping: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 1

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can look out how players actually perform with their opportunity — how many points they actually score — and arrive at a player’s fantasy points over expectation (FPOE). FPOE turns out to be a catch-all efficiency…...

When and How to Draft Running Backs in Extreme Zero RB Builds

Our writers are drafting in real events and breaking down the player picks and draft tactics for readers. In this edition, Shawn Siegele and Blair Andrews get to Round 11 of their Main Event draft without a single running back on the roster. Where will they go from here? It’s an unfortunate reality of most fantasy football leagues that running backs are a requirement. As the Win the Flex tool shows, in FFPC scoring, there is never an ADP level at which wide receivers do not outscore their RB counterparts. Points Implied by ADP in FFPC Leagues – 2017-2019 If…...

Bludgeoning Your Draft With Barkley: When to Attack the RB2 in Single-Elite RB Builds

Our writers are drafting in real events and breaking down the player picks and draft tactics for readers. In this edition, Blair Andrews and Dave Caban co-draft an FFPC team. They look to answer the key question for 2020: How long can you wait for your second RB in single-elite RB builds? When you get the second pick this season, you have two options: (1) hope that the guy or gal picking first prefers someone else over Christian McCaffrey1 or (2) take Saquon Barkley. When Dave and I got the second pick, we went with Option 2. In either case,…...

Isaiah Coulter Is Houston’s Darius Slayton

In The Blitz, RotoViz writers react to the latest news and help you place it within the context of our 2020 research and recommendations. The Houston Texans enter their first season since 2012 without DeAndre Hopkins. One unheralded rookie is looking to fill the gap, according to the RotoViz News Feed. Houston Texans rookie wide receiver Isaiah Coulter’s “speed and fluidity” have stood out during training camp, says Aaron Reiss of The Athletic. Though not expected to have much of a role in 2020, the Rhode Island product could be looking at a key role in 2021, as Houston has

You Can’t Run Scared from the 12 Slot: Extreme Zero-RB Tactics in the FFPC Main Event

Blair Andrews and Shawn Siegele execute an extreme Zero-RB start in their FFPC Main Event draft. Can they pull it off? Shawn Siegele and I recently participated in an FFPC Main Event draft. We got the 12th pick. Although there wasn’t quite as much excitement around that pick as in the quad draft Shawn did with Ben Gretch, Pat Kerrane, and Peter Overzet on Ship Chasing, getting the 12th pick does lead you toward a very clear and very on-brand strategy. Needless to say, we both like the teams you can build with a Zero-RB approach. But Zero RB is…...

The FFPC Command Center and Controversial Early Picks: Why We Almost Went Even Wilder in Our Co-Owned FFPC Draft

Dave Caban and Blair Andrews put the RotoViz tools and research to the test, drafting a single-elite-RB FFPC team for a chance at $500,000. While I always relish an excuse to draft a Zero-Running-Back team, it is a good idea to diversify sometimes. Drafting a team with a pick in the early first round makes such diversification a possibility. It’s hard to recommend an RB-heavy build unless you get some RB targets much later than they’re currently going. Drafting non-elite RB targets in the early part of a draft is a good way to put your team at an immediate…...

Rookie RBs Are the Key To Fantasy Titles, But Not in the Way You Might Think – The Wrong Read No. 64

We know that rookie running backs have long been a central part of successful Zero-RB teams. Is this still the case after a number of our favorite rookie RBs disappointed in 2019? The answer is, of course, more complicated than you thought. Two seasons ago I found that rookie RBs tend to outperform in certain key spots in fantasy drafts. They just happened to be the exact parts of the draft where Zero-RB enthusiasts typically start looking to fill out their RB corps. Unfortunately, 2019 was a year to forget for many of our favorite rookie RBs. Darrell Henderson was…...

Can Atlanta’s Offense Support a Pair of 300-Point Scorers? The Many Worlds of the Projection Machine

Blair Andrews uses the projection machine to explore a few of the many possible futures for the Atlanta Falcons offense. Only once since 2000 has a team produced two 300-point wide receivers — Denver did it in 2014 with both Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders reaching that threshold while catching passes from Peyton Manning. If 2020 ADP is any indication, there are probably only two teams who have a remote shot at doing that again this year. One of those teams is the Atlanta Falcons.1 Julio Jones is going off the board as the WR4, while Calvin Ridley is not far…...

It’s Kind of Crazy What the Right Kicker Strategy Does for You in Superflex Best Ball

Blair Andrews continues his look at FFPC Superflex best ball strategy. In this installment, we turn our attention to the all-important kicker position. It’s not quite right to say that kicker is the forgotten position in fantasy football. But that’s only because kicker is increasingly not a position in fantasy football. The FFPC is becoming a rarity in the fantasy industry as a format that still requires kicker selections in most of their leagues.1 In some ways, it’s a shame that the kicker position is no longer a staple of most best ball contests, because the proper kicker strategy is…...

How to Split Half a Million Dollars 4 Ways: Drafting a Championship-Winning Quad Squad in the FFPC

A few days ago, my Fantasy Football Report cohost Hasan Rahim and I joined Pat Kerrane and Peter Overzet on Ship Chasing to run back our quad-managed FFPC draft. Last year, we went through most of the season taking near zeroes at our second running back slot, and we scrambled to fill our tight end slot from the waiver wire almost every week (in a TE-premium format). Our first-round pick, JuJu Smith-Schuster, missed four games, and finished the week outside of the top-24 wide receivers in nine of the 12 games he did appear in. Our fourth-round pick, Brandin Cooks,…...

The Exploitable Relationship Between WR Age and Opportunity Is One of the Biggest Edges in Fantasy – The Wrong Read, No. 63

Much of the research that happens in this space suggests our fantasy teams should nearly always be younger than we tend to think. Breakouts and busts both happen earlier in players’ careers than the traditional age curves would lead you to believe. Although it’s true that many of best WRs in the NFL last year were somewhere between 25 and 30 years old,1 it’s a mistake to think that we should generally be targeting players in this age range. The main reason this is a mistake is that we want to target players who are likely to be better than…...

Tight End Is the New Running Back: How to Benefit from Injury Risk in the Scott Fish Bowl (and Elsewhere)

Last week I published an article recommending a TEx5 start to your Scott Fish Bowl drafts. This week we added SFBX scoring settings to the Win the Flex app, and it disagreed with my take in no uncertain terms. According to the Win the Flex numbers (using SFBX scoring and FFPC Superflex ADP), tight ends don’t become the best pick until about the eighth round. In fact, picking a tight end anywhere in the first three rounds appears to be the worst pick you can make. Come on, Win the Flex, why would you do this to me? How Win…...

Zero Everything But Tight End: Using the Scott Fish Bowl Points Explorer to Find the Optimal Superflex Strategy

The Scott Fish Bowl is one of my favorite leagues every year. Not only does it help raise money for Fantasy Cares to support various charities, but it also always has among the most interesting scoring and roster settings. The league has typical 1-QB, 2-RB, 3-WR, 1-TE starting lineup requirements, but the addition of four flex spots, including one Superflex, adds several wrinkles. Tight-end-premium scoring means your flex spots don’t come down to a simple “running back vs. wide receiver” decision. Quarterback scoring — with mild penalties for incomplete passes and sacks taken, and extreme penalties for interceptions and pick-sixes…...

Drafters Are Still Chasing the Wrong Things When Targeting Second-Year Running Backs – The Wrong Read, No. 62

Players entering Year 2 are among the best investments you can make in your fantasy drafts. So how do you predict who will be the top second-year RBs? Last offseason, I wrote that, contrary to what you may have heard, we want to chase efficiency at the RB position. Specifically, rookie-year efficiency appears to be a sign of good things to come. It turns out filling your team with good players — players who outperform their opportunity — is smart. More recently, Jack Miller looked at the same issue from a fresh angle, asking whether we undervalue efficient rookies in…...

Onesie Position Tactics Are Even More Important in Superflex Best Ball Leagues: Tight Ends Will Determine Your Fate

Last time we looked at how to approach the quarterback position in FFPC Superflex best ball leagues. We used the FFPC Roster Construction Explorer to uncover a near cheat code that returned a 16% win rate (albeit on a relatively small sample). QB is certainly one of the most important positions to get right in Superflex leagues. But there’s another position that might be almost as important in FFPC Superflex leagues. The right tight end strategy can make a dramatic difference, as all FFPC leagues involve TE-premium scoring. So what is the best way to play the TE position in…...

How You Draft Quarterbacks Can Determine Your Fate in Superflex Best Ball Leagues

Getting the quarterback position right in best ball leagues is one of the easiest and most effective ways to gain an advantage. Simply picking the right number of QBs in the right rounds gives you an immediate edge, before we even get to the problem of individual player selection. But what if you’re in a Superflex best ball draft? The FFPC has offered Superflex best ball drafts for a couple years. It’s a format that deserves to be way more popular than it is. If you’re going to dip your toes in, several questions arise quickly: When should I start…...

5 Veterans Who Won the 2020 NFL Draft

The NFL Draft shook up a number of depth charts. Many veterans whose roles looked secure now have questionable futures. But on the flip side, many veterans whose futures were in doubt leading up to the draft dodged a bullet. Several teams were expected to add to their depth charts at various positions, but many chose not to. Which players had the biggest wins because of who their teams did not draft early last weekend? Gardner Minshew A number of mocks had Tua Tagovailoa falling to Jacksonville at No. 9. Although the Jaguars did eventually draft a QB, it wasn’t…...

Ultimate Zero RB Watch List: AFC Week 3 – Devin Singletary Will Not Be Denied

The Ultimate Zero RB Watch List provides analysis for Zero RB and RB-heavy owners alike. Blair Andrews examines the running back workloads for every NFC backfield from Week 1. Almost every fantasy team can use a breakout RB, whether they were drafted as a Zero-RB squad or not. The Ultimate Zero RB Watch List helps to find these breakout stars before they hit. But it also helps you understand which of the high-profile backs you should be buying and selling based on workload shifts. We’ll use the RotoViz tools to dive deep into the Week 1 advanced stats for every…...

The Rise of the Tight End and the Eclipse of the One-Dimensional Running Back: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 2

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can look out how players actually perform with their opportunity — how many points they actually score — and arrive at a player’s fantasy points over expectation (FPOE). FPOE turns out to be a catch-all efficiency…...

Ultimate Zero RB Watch List: NFC Week 2 – It’s Time to Admit Raheem Mostert Might Just Be That Good

The Ultimate Zero RB Watch List provides analysis for Zero RB and RB-heavy owners alike. Blair Andrews examines the running back workloads for every NFC backfield from Week 1. Check out Shawn Siegele’s companion piece on AFC backfields. Almost every fantasy team can use a breakout RB, whether they were drafted as a Zero-RB squad or not. The Ultimate Zero RB Watch List helps to find these breakout stars before they hit. But it also helps you understand which of the high-profile backs you should be buying and selling based on workload shifts. We’ll use the RotoViz tools to dive…...

2 Rookies Look Like Stars, Just Not the One You Were Hoping: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 1

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can look out how players actually perform with their opportunity — how many points they actually score — and arrive at a player’s fantasy points over expectation (FPOE). FPOE turns out to be a catch-all efficiency…...

When and How to Draft Running Backs in Extreme Zero RB Builds

Our writers are drafting in real events and breaking down the player picks and draft tactics for readers. In this edition, Shawn Siegele and Blair Andrews get to Round 11 of their Main Event draft without a single running back on the roster. Where will they go from here? It’s an unfortunate reality of most fantasy football leagues that running backs are a requirement. As the Win the Flex tool shows, in FFPC scoring, there is never an ADP level at which wide receivers do not outscore their RB counterparts. Points Implied by ADP in FFPC Leagues – 2017-2019 If…...

Bludgeoning Your Draft With Barkley: When to Attack the RB2 in Single-Elite RB Builds

Our writers are drafting in real events and breaking down the player picks and draft tactics for readers. In this edition, Blair Andrews and Dave Caban co-draft an FFPC team. They look to answer the key question for 2020: How long can you wait for your second RB in single-elite RB builds? When you get the second pick this season, you have two options: (1) hope that the guy or gal picking first prefers someone else over Christian McCaffrey1 or (2) take Saquon Barkley. When Dave and I got the second pick, we went with Option 2. In either case,…...

Isaiah Coulter Is Houston’s Darius Slayton

In The Blitz, RotoViz writers react to the latest news and help you place it within the context of our 2020 research and recommendations. The Houston Texans enter their first season since 2012 without DeAndre Hopkins. One unheralded rookie is looking to fill the gap, according to the RotoViz News Feed. Houston Texans rookie wide receiver Isaiah Coulter’s “speed and fluidity” have stood out during training camp, says Aaron Reiss of The Athletic. Though not expected to have much of a role in 2020, the Rhode Island product could be looking at a key role in 2021, as Houston has

You Can’t Run Scared from the 12 Slot: Extreme Zero-RB Tactics in the FFPC Main Event

Blair Andrews and Shawn Siegele execute an extreme Zero-RB start in their FFPC Main Event draft. Can they pull it off? Shawn Siegele and I recently participated in an FFPC Main Event draft. We got the 12th pick. Although there wasn’t quite as much excitement around that pick as in the quad draft Shawn did with Ben Gretch, Pat Kerrane, and Peter Overzet on Ship Chasing, getting the 12th pick does lead you toward a very clear and very on-brand strategy. Needless to say, we both like the teams you can build with a Zero-RB approach. But Zero RB is…...

The FFPC Command Center and Controversial Early Picks: Why We Almost Went Even Wilder in Our Co-Owned FFPC Draft

Dave Caban and Blair Andrews put the RotoViz tools and research to the test, drafting a single-elite-RB FFPC team for a chance at $500,000. While I always relish an excuse to draft a Zero-Running-Back team, it is a good idea to diversify sometimes. Drafting a team with a pick in the early first round makes such diversification a possibility. It’s hard to recommend an RB-heavy build unless you get some RB targets much later than they’re currently going. Drafting non-elite RB targets in the early part of a draft is a good way to put your team at an immediate…...

Rookie RBs Are the Key To Fantasy Titles, But Not in the Way You Might Think – The Wrong Read No. 64

We know that rookie running backs have long been a central part of successful Zero-RB teams. Is this still the case after a number of our favorite rookie RBs disappointed in 2019? The answer is, of course, more complicated than you thought. Two seasons ago I found that rookie RBs tend to outperform in certain key spots in fantasy drafts. They just happened to be the exact parts of the draft where Zero-RB enthusiasts typically start looking to fill out their RB corps. Unfortunately, 2019 was a year to forget for many of our favorite rookie RBs. Darrell Henderson was…...

Can Atlanta’s Offense Support a Pair of 300-Point Scorers? The Many Worlds of the Projection Machine

Blair Andrews uses the projection machine to explore a few of the many possible futures for the Atlanta Falcons offense. Only once since 2000 has a team produced two 300-point wide receivers — Denver did it in 2014 with both Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders reaching that threshold while catching passes from Peyton Manning. If 2020 ADP is any indication, there are probably only two teams who have a remote shot at doing that again this year. One of those teams is the Atlanta Falcons.1 Julio Jones is going off the board as the WR4, while Calvin Ridley is not far…...

It’s Kind of Crazy What the Right Kicker Strategy Does for You in Superflex Best Ball

Blair Andrews continues his look at FFPC Superflex best ball strategy. In this installment, we turn our attention to the all-important kicker position. It’s not quite right to say that kicker is the forgotten position in fantasy football. But that’s only because kicker is increasingly not a position in fantasy football. The FFPC is becoming a rarity in the fantasy industry as a format that still requires kicker selections in most of their leagues.1 In some ways, it’s a shame that the kicker position is no longer a staple of most best ball contests, because the proper kicker strategy is…...

How to Split Half a Million Dollars 4 Ways: Drafting a Championship-Winning Quad Squad in the FFPC

A few days ago, my Fantasy Football Report cohost Hasan Rahim and I joined Pat Kerrane and Peter Overzet on Ship Chasing to run back our quad-managed FFPC draft. Last year, we went through most of the season taking near zeroes at our second running back slot, and we scrambled to fill our tight end slot from the waiver wire almost every week (in a TE-premium format). Our first-round pick, JuJu Smith-Schuster, missed four games, and finished the week outside of the top-24 wide receivers in nine of the 12 games he did appear in. Our fourth-round pick, Brandin Cooks,…...

The Exploitable Relationship Between WR Age and Opportunity Is One of the Biggest Edges in Fantasy – The Wrong Read, No. 63

Much of the research that happens in this space suggests our fantasy teams should nearly always be younger than we tend to think. Breakouts and busts both happen earlier in players’ careers than the traditional age curves would lead you to believe. Although it’s true that many of best WRs in the NFL last year were somewhere between 25 and 30 years old,1 it’s a mistake to think that we should generally be targeting players in this age range. The main reason this is a mistake is that we want to target players who are likely to be better than…...

Tight End Is the New Running Back: How to Benefit from Injury Risk in the Scott Fish Bowl (and Elsewhere)

Last week I published an article recommending a TEx5 start to your Scott Fish Bowl drafts. This week we added SFBX scoring settings to the Win the Flex app, and it disagreed with my take in no uncertain terms. According to the Win the Flex numbers (using SFBX scoring and FFPC Superflex ADP), tight ends don’t become the best pick until about the eighth round. In fact, picking a tight end anywhere in the first three rounds appears to be the worst pick you can make. Come on, Win the Flex, why would you do this to me? How Win…...

Zero Everything But Tight End: Using the Scott Fish Bowl Points Explorer to Find the Optimal Superflex Strategy

The Scott Fish Bowl is one of my favorite leagues every year. Not only does it help raise money for Fantasy Cares to support various charities, but it also always has among the most interesting scoring and roster settings. The league has typical 1-QB, 2-RB, 3-WR, 1-TE starting lineup requirements, but the addition of four flex spots, including one Superflex, adds several wrinkles. Tight-end-premium scoring means your flex spots don’t come down to a simple “running back vs. wide receiver” decision. Quarterback scoring — with mild penalties for incomplete passes and sacks taken, and extreme penalties for interceptions and pick-sixes…...

Drafters Are Still Chasing the Wrong Things When Targeting Second-Year Running Backs – The Wrong Read, No. 62

Players entering Year 2 are among the best investments you can make in your fantasy drafts. So how do you predict who will be the top second-year RBs? Last offseason, I wrote that, contrary to what you may have heard, we want to chase efficiency at the RB position. Specifically, rookie-year efficiency appears to be a sign of good things to come. It turns out filling your team with good players — players who outperform their opportunity — is smart. More recently, Jack Miller looked at the same issue from a fresh angle, asking whether we undervalue efficient rookies in…...

Onesie Position Tactics Are Even More Important in Superflex Best Ball Leagues: Tight Ends Will Determine Your Fate

Last time we looked at how to approach the quarterback position in FFPC Superflex best ball leagues. We used the FFPC Roster Construction Explorer to uncover a near cheat code that returned a 16% win rate (albeit on a relatively small sample). QB is certainly one of the most important positions to get right in Superflex leagues. But there’s another position that might be almost as important in FFPC Superflex leagues. The right tight end strategy can make a dramatic difference, as all FFPC leagues involve TE-premium scoring. So what is the best way to play the TE position in…...

How You Draft Quarterbacks Can Determine Your Fate in Superflex Best Ball Leagues

Getting the quarterback position right in best ball leagues is one of the easiest and most effective ways to gain an advantage. Simply picking the right number of QBs in the right rounds gives you an immediate edge, before we even get to the problem of individual player selection. But what if you’re in a Superflex best ball draft? The FFPC has offered Superflex best ball drafts for a couple years. It’s a format that deserves to be way more popular than it is. If you’re going to dip your toes in, several questions arise quickly: When should I start…...

5 Veterans Who Won the 2020 NFL Draft

The NFL Draft shook up a number of depth charts. Many veterans whose roles looked secure now have questionable futures. But on the flip side, many veterans whose futures were in doubt leading up to the draft dodged a bullet. Several teams were expected to add to their depth charts at various positions, but many chose not to. Which players had the biggest wins because of who their teams did not draft early last weekend? Gardner Minshew A number of mocks had Tua Tagovailoa falling to Jacksonville at No. 9. Although the Jaguars did eventually draft a QB, it wasn’t…...

Ultimate Zero RB Watch List: AFC Week 3 – Devin Singletary Will Not Be Denied

The Ultimate Zero RB Watch List provides analysis for Zero RB and RB-heavy owners alike. Blair Andrews examines the running back workloads for every NFC backfield from Week 1. Almost every fantasy team can use a breakout RB, whether they were drafted as a Zero-RB squad or not. The Ultimate…...

When and How to Draft Running Backs in Extreme Zero RB Builds

Our writers are drafting in real events and breaking down the player picks and draft tactics for readers. In this edition, Shawn Siegele and Blair Andrews get to Round 11 of their Main Event draft without a single running back on the roster. Where will they go from here? It’s…...

Isaiah Coulter Is Houston’s Darius Slayton

In The Blitz, RotoViz writers react to the latest news and help you place it within the context of our 2020 research and recommendations. The Houston Texans enter their first season since 2012 without DeAndre Hopkins. One unheralded rookie is looking to fill the gap, according to the RotoViz News

5 Veterans Who Won the 2020 NFL Draft

The NFL Draft shook up a number of depth charts. Many veterans whose roles looked secure now have questionable futures. But on the flip side, many veterans whose futures were in doubt leading up to the draft dodged a bullet. Several teams were expected to add to their depth charts…...

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