Blair Andrews

Managing Editor, Author of The Wrong Read, Occasional Fantasy Football League Winner. All opinions are someone else's.

Author Archive

In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

Tight End Is the New Running Back: How to Benefit from Injury Risk in the Scott Fish Bowl (and Elsewhere)

Last week I published an article recommending a TEx5 start to your Scott Fish Bowl drafts. This week we added SFBX scoring settings to the Win the Flex app, and it disagreed with my take in no uncertain terms. According to the Win the Flex numbers (using SFBX scoring and FFPC Superflex ADP), tight ends don’t become the best pick until about the eighth round. In fact, picking a tight end anywhere in the first three rounds appears to be the worst pick you can make. Come on, Win the Flex, why would you do this to me? How Win…...

Zero Everything But Tight End: Using the Scott Fish Bowl Points Explorer to Find the Optimal Superflex Strategy

The Scott Fish Bowl is one of my favorite leagues every year. Not only does it help raise money for Fantasy Cares to support various charities, but it also always has among the most interesting scoring and roster settings. The league has typical 1-QB, 2-RB, 3-WR, 1-TE starting lineup requirements, but the addition of four flex spots, including one Superflex, adds several wrinkles. Tight-end-premium scoring means your flex spots don’t come down to a simple “running back vs. wide receiver” decision. Quarterback scoring — with mild penalties for incomplete passes and sacks taken, and extreme penalties for interceptions and pick-sixes…...

Drafters Are Still Chasing the Wrong Things When Targeting Second-Year Running Backs – The Wrong Read, No. 62

Players entering Year 2 are among the best investments you can make in your fantasy drafts. So how do you predict who will be the top second-year RBs? Last offseason, I wrote that, contrary to what you may have heard, we want to chase efficiency at the RB position. Specifically, rookie-year efficiency appears to be a sign of good things to come. It turns out filling your team with good players — players who outperform their opportunity — is smart. More recently, Jack Miller looked at the same issue from a fresh angle, asking whether we undervalue efficient rookies in…...

Onesie Position Tactics Are Even More Important in Superflex Best Ball Leagues: Tight Ends Will Determine Your Fate

Last time we looked at how to approach the quarterback position in FFPC Superflex best ball leagues. We used the FFPC Roster Construction Explorer to uncover a near cheat code that returned a 16% win rate (albeit on a relatively small sample). QB is certainly one of the most important positions to get right in Superflex leagues. But there’s another position that might be almost as important in FFPC Superflex leagues. The right tight end strategy can make a dramatic difference, as all FFPC leagues involve TE-premium scoring. So what is the best way to play the TE position in…...

How You Draft Quarterbacks Can Determine Your Fate in Superflex Best Ball Leagues

Getting the quarterback position right in best ball leagues is one of the easiest and most effective ways to gain an advantage. Simply picking the right number of QBs in the right rounds gives you an immediate edge, before we even get to the problem of individual player selection. But what if you’re in a Superflex best ball draft? The FFPC has offered Superflex best ball drafts for a couple years. It’s a format that deserves to be way more popular than it is. If you’re going to dip your toes in, several questions arise quickly: When should I start…...

5 Veterans Who Won the 2020 NFL Draft

The NFL Draft shook up a number of depth charts. Many veterans whose roles looked secure now have questionable futures. But on the flip side, many veterans whose futures were in doubt leading up to the draft dodged a bullet. Several teams were expected to add to their depth charts at various positions, but many chose not to. Which players had the biggest wins because of who their teams did not draft early last weekend? Gardner Minshew A number of mocks had Tua Tagovailoa falling to Jacksonville at No. 9. Although the Jaguars did eventually draft a QB, it wasn’t…...

The Best Rookie Running Back Landing Spots: Vacated RB Expected Points

The early portions of 2020 rookie drafts are expected to be filled with exciting running backs. But the outlooks for our favorite backs depend a lot on which teams draft them. One straightforward way to determine which landing spots are best is to look at which teams have the most available opportunity. In what follows, I’ll explore vacated RB expected points (EP) to find the best landing spots for the top 2020 RB prospects. Several NFL teams made big moves in their backfields, trading for or signing stars. Others let their top RBs from last season walk in free agency,…...

Could We Be Underestimating the 2020 Running Back Class? The Backfield Dominator Rating Finds 4 Steals Beyond the 5 Flashy Names

The 2020 class of running backs has several prospects that excite fantasy owners. Surprisingly, the scouting community is less enthusiastic. Many mock drafts do not have a single RB being picked in the first round. Many of our favorite backs figure to be Day 3 selections. However, we know the NFL Draft is not an efficient market for extrapolating fantasy value. In the first volume of the Dynasty Command Center Rookie Guide, I explained how focusing on RB production and giving less weight to RB athleticism could help us beat the NFL Draft. One of the metrics I didn’t touch…...

The Paradox of Jalen Reagor and the Problem of WR Speed: A 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile

The 2020 wide receiver class is famous for its glut of elite prospects, with seven different receivers expected to be first rounders, according to Grinding the Mocks. One of those outside the first round is Jalen Reagor. Yet many aspects of Reagor’s profile make him look like he deserves to be at the top of the rankings. Is it possible to be sleeping on a player who will probably garner a top-40 pick? Should the red flags in Reagor’s profile push his draft stock down further? Jalen Reagor Is Both the Most and the Least Productive Top WR By some accounts,…...

Does Hand Size Matter for Wide Receivers? The Wrong Read, No. 61

Welcome to the 61st installment of The Wrong Read. Shawn Siegele’s recent article on 2020 Freak Scores linked to some classic work by Fantasy Douche that renewed my interest in wide receiver hand size. We know, on the one hand, that production is all that matters for WRs. But on the other hand, that last sentence can’t possibly be literally true. So the question is, how do we best measure a metric’s real impact? In a surprise to no one, Henry Ruggs ran a 4.27 forty at the NFL combine. If you’re moving Ruggs up your board after he showed…...

Tight End Is the New Running Back: How to Benefit from Injury Risk in the Scott Fish Bowl (and Elsewhere)

Last week I published an article recommending a TEx5 start to your Scott Fish Bowl drafts. This week we added SFBX scoring settings to the Win the Flex app, and it disagreed with my take in no uncertain terms. According to the Win the Flex numbers (using SFBX scoring and FFPC Superflex ADP), tight ends don’t become the best pick until about the eighth round. In fact, picking a tight end anywhere in the first three rounds appears to be the worst pick you can make. Come on, Win the Flex, why would you do this to me? How Win…...

Zero Everything But Tight End: Using the Scott Fish Bowl Points Explorer to Find the Optimal Superflex Strategy

The Scott Fish Bowl is one of my favorite leagues every year. Not only does it help raise money for Fantasy Cares to support various charities, but it also always has among the most interesting scoring and roster settings. The league has typical 1-QB, 2-RB, 3-WR, 1-TE starting lineup requirements, but the addition of four flex spots, including one Superflex, adds several wrinkles. Tight-end-premium scoring means your flex spots don’t come down to a simple “running back vs. wide receiver” decision. Quarterback scoring — with mild penalties for incomplete passes and sacks taken, and extreme penalties for interceptions and pick-sixes…...

Drafters Are Still Chasing the Wrong Things When Targeting Second-Year Running Backs – The Wrong Read, No. 62

Players entering Year 2 are among the best investments you can make in your fantasy drafts. So how do you predict who will be the top second-year RBs? Last offseason, I wrote that, contrary to what you may have heard, we want to chase efficiency at the RB position. Specifically, rookie-year efficiency appears to be a sign of good things to come. It turns out filling your team with good players — players who outperform their opportunity — is smart. More recently, Jack Miller looked at the same issue from a fresh angle, asking whether we undervalue efficient rookies in…...

Onesie Position Tactics Are Even More Important in Superflex Best Ball Leagues: Tight Ends Will Determine Your Fate

Last time we looked at how to approach the quarterback position in FFPC Superflex best ball leagues. We used the FFPC Roster Construction Explorer to uncover a near cheat code that returned a 16% win rate (albeit on a relatively small sample). QB is certainly one of the most important positions to get right in Superflex leagues. But there’s another position that might be almost as important in FFPC Superflex leagues. The right tight end strategy can make a dramatic difference, as all FFPC leagues involve TE-premium scoring. So what is the best way to play the TE position in…...

How You Draft Quarterbacks Can Determine Your Fate in Superflex Best Ball Leagues

Getting the quarterback position right in best ball leagues is one of the easiest and most effective ways to gain an advantage. Simply picking the right number of QBs in the right rounds gives you an immediate edge, before we even get to the problem of individual player selection. But what if you’re in a Superflex best ball draft? The FFPC has offered Superflex best ball drafts for a couple years. It’s a format that deserves to be way more popular than it is. If you’re going to dip your toes in, several questions arise quickly: When should I start…...

5 Veterans Who Won the 2020 NFL Draft

The NFL Draft shook up a number of depth charts. Many veterans whose roles looked secure now have questionable futures. But on the flip side, many veterans whose futures were in doubt leading up to the draft dodged a bullet. Several teams were expected to add to their depth charts at various positions, but many chose not to. Which players had the biggest wins because of who their teams did not draft early last weekend? Gardner Minshew A number of mocks had Tua Tagovailoa falling to Jacksonville at No. 9. Although the Jaguars did eventually draft a QB, it wasn’t…...

The Best Rookie Running Back Landing Spots: Vacated RB Expected Points

The early portions of 2020 rookie drafts are expected to be filled with exciting running backs. But the outlooks for our favorite backs depend a lot on which teams draft them. One straightforward way to determine which landing spots are best is to look at which teams have the most available opportunity. In what follows, I’ll explore vacated RB expected points (EP) to find the best landing spots for the top 2020 RB prospects. Several NFL teams made big moves in their backfields, trading for or signing stars. Others let their top RBs from last season walk in free agency,…...

Could We Be Underestimating the 2020 Running Back Class? The Backfield Dominator Rating Finds 4 Steals Beyond the 5 Flashy Names

The 2020 class of running backs has several prospects that excite fantasy owners. Surprisingly, the scouting community is less enthusiastic. Many mock drafts do not have a single RB being picked in the first round. Many of our favorite backs figure to be Day 3 selections. However, we know the NFL Draft is not an efficient market for extrapolating fantasy value. In the first volume of the Dynasty Command Center Rookie Guide, I explained how focusing on RB production and giving less weight to RB athleticism could help us beat the NFL Draft. One of the metrics I didn’t touch…...

The Paradox of Jalen Reagor and the Problem of WR Speed: A 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile

The 2020 wide receiver class is famous for its glut of elite prospects, with seven different receivers expected to be first rounders, according to Grinding the Mocks. One of those outside the first round is Jalen Reagor. Yet many aspects of Reagor’s profile make him look like he deserves to be at the top of the rankings. Is it possible to be sleeping on a player who will probably garner a top-40 pick? Should the red flags in Reagor’s profile push his draft stock down further? Jalen Reagor Is Both the Most and the Least Productive Top WR By some accounts,…...

Does Hand Size Matter for Wide Receivers? The Wrong Read, No. 61

Welcome to the 61st installment of The Wrong Read. Shawn Siegele’s recent article on 2020 Freak Scores linked to some classic work by Fantasy Douche that renewed my interest in wide receiver hand size. We know, on the one hand, that production is all that matters for WRs. But on the other hand, that last sentence can’t possibly be literally true. So the question is, how do we best measure a metric’s real impact? In a surprise to no one, Henry Ruggs ran a 4.27 forty at the NFL combine. If you’re moving Ruggs up your board after he showed…...

5 Veterans Who Won the 2020 NFL Draft

The NFL Draft shook up a number of depth charts. Many veterans whose roles looked secure now have questionable futures. But on the flip side, many veterans whose futures were in doubt leading up to the draft dodged a bullet. Several teams were expected to add to their depth charts…...

The Best Rookie Running Back Landing Spots: Vacated RB Expected Points

The early portions of 2020 rookie drafts are expected to be filled with exciting running backs. But the outlooks for our favorite backs depend a lot on which teams draft them. One straightforward way to determine which landing spots are best is to look at which teams have the most…...

Does Hand Size Matter for Wide Receivers? The Wrong Read, No. 61

Welcome to the 61st installment of The Wrong Read. Shawn Siegele’s recent article on 2020 Freak Scores linked to some classic work by Fantasy Douche that renewed my interest in wide receiver hand size. We know, on the one hand, that production is all that matters for WRs. But on…...

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