Blair Andrews
Managing Editor, Author of The Wrong Read, Occasional Fantasy Football League Winner. All opinions are someone else's.

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In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

The Best Rookie Running Back Landing Spots: Vacated RB Expected Points

Blair Andrews April 23, 2020

The early portions of 2020 rookie drafts are expected to be filled with exciting running backs. But the outlooks for our favorite backs depend a lot on which teams draft them. One straightforward way to determine which landing spots are best is to look at which teams have the most available opportunity. In what follows, I’ll explore vacated RB expected points (EP) to find the best landing spots for the top 2020 RB prospects. Several NFL teams made big moves in their backfields, trading for or signing stars. Others let their top RBs from last season walk in free agency,…...

Could We Be Underestimating the 2020 Running Back Class? The Backfield Dominator Rating Finds 4 Steals Beyond the 5 Flashy Names

Blair Andrews April 21, 2020

The 2020 class of running backs has several prospects that excite fantasy owners. Surprisingly, the scouting community is less enthusiastic. Many mock drafts do not have a single RB being picked in the first round. Many of our favorite backs figure to be Day 3 selections. However, we know the NFL Draft is not an efficient market for extrapolating fantasy value. In the first volume of the Dynasty Command Center Rookie Guide, I explained how focusing on RB production and giving less weight to RB athleticism could help us beat the NFL Draft. One of the metrics I didn’t touch…...

The Paradox of Jalen Reagor and the Problem of WR Speed: A 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile

Blair Andrews March 24, 2020

The 2020 wide receiver class is famous for its glut of elite prospects, with seven different receivers expected to be first rounders, according to Grinding the Mocks. One of those outside the first round is Jalen Reagor. Yet many aspects of Reagor’s profile make him look like he deserves to be at the top of the rankings. Is it possible to be sleeping on a player who will probably garner a top-40 pick? Should the red flags in Reagor’s profile push his draft stock down further? Jalen Reagor Is Both the Most and the Least Productive Top WR By some accounts,…...

Does Hand Size Matter for Wide Receivers? The Wrong Read, No. 61

Blair Andrews March 6, 2020

Welcome to the 61st installment of The Wrong Read. Shawn Siegele’s recent article on 2020 Freak Scores linked to some classic work by Fantasy Douche that renewed my interest in wide receiver hand size. We know, on the one hand, that production is all that matters for WRs. But on the other hand, that last sentence can’t possibly be literally true. So the question is, how do we best measure a metric’s real impact? In a surprise to no one, Henry Ruggs ran a 4.27 forty at the NFL combine. If you’re moving Ruggs up your board after he showed…...

Justin Jefferson Is the Only Rookie WR Who Checks Every Box: A 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile

Blair Andrews February 19, 2020

Coming off a national title win, Justin Jefferson chose to declare for the NFL Draft instead of returning for his senior season. He enters after a true junior season that saw him catch 111 passes for over 1,500 receiving yards and 18 receiving touchdowns. He’s not the top WR in nearly anyone’s rankings, but if we put his production in some context, he’s got a good case for the top spot in the class. College Production Jefferson was a three-star recruit from Destrehan, Louisiana — about a 1.5-hour drive from LSU’s stadium. His home state university was by far the…...

Which WR Prospect Metrics Tell Us Something Unique? The Wrong Read, No. 60

Blair Andrews January 9, 2020

I seem to have become obsessed with correlation matrices, so I’m just going to lean into it. Below you’ll find a correlation matrix with many of our favorite WR prospect evaluation metrics. This is admittedly a simplistic way to look at the predictiveness of various metrics. But there are a number of interesting things going on here, which I’ll point out below. Keep in mind that negative numbers are good for age and draft position. You want a player to be younger and drafted earlier. First, let me explain what some of these metrics are. Many are self-explanatory, but some…...

How to Use Expected Points in the Offseason: 4 More Correlation Matrices

Blair Andrews December 24, 2019

Last week I looked at a variety of Expected-Points-based metrics to determine which were the most stable from one week to the next and which were the most predictive of fantasy scoring in future weeks. However, fantasy football is not only a weekly game — in most formats your lineup won’t vary much from one week to the next. Also, for most of our fantasy teams, 2019 is already in the books. So this week I want to do the same thing as last week, only with a longer time horizon. Which metrics are the most stable and most predictive…...

Zero RB Watch List: NFC Week 16 – Miles Sanders Is a “Buy High” Candidate

Blair Andrews December 18, 2019

Blair Andrews examines the running back workloads for the most contentious NFC backfields ahead of Week 16. Every fantasy team can use a breakout RB, whether their owners drafted them as Zero-RB squads or not. The Zero RB Watch List helps to find these breakout stars before they hit. But it also helps you understand which of the high-profile backs you should be buying and selling based on workload shifts. We’ll use the RotoViz Screener and the NFL Stat Explorer to dive into the advanced stats for the NFC backfields where battles still rage, focusing on expected points (EP), fantasy…...

Why Do We Care About Expected Points? An Explanation in 4 Correlation Matrices

Blair Andrews December 17, 2019

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can look at how players actually perform with their opportunity — how many points they actually score — and arrive at a player’s fantasy points over expectation (FPOE). FPOE turns out to be a catch-all efficiency…...

Zero RB Watch List: AFC Week 15 – He’s No Austin Ekeler, But Can Darwin Thompson Be the Guy for KC?

Blair Andrews December 11, 2019

Blair Andrews examines the running back workloads for the most contentious AFC backfields ahead of Week 15. Almost every fantasy team can use a breakout RB, whether they were drafted as a Zero-RB squad or not. The Zero RB Watch List helps to find these breakout stars before they hit. But it also helps you understand which of the high-profile backs you should be buying and selling based on workload shifts. We’ll use the RotoViz Screener and the NFL Stat Explorer to dive into the Week 14 advanced stats for the AFC backfields that still feature committees and competitions, focusing…...

The Best Rookie Running Back Landing Spots: Vacated RB Expected Points

Blair Andrews April 23, 2020

The early portions of 2020 rookie drafts are expected to be filled with exciting running backs. But the outlooks for our favorite backs depend a lot on which teams draft them. One straightforward way to determine which landing spots are best is to look at which teams have the most available opportunity. In what follows, I’ll explore vacated RB expected points (EP) to find the best landing spots for the top 2020 RB prospects. Several NFL teams made big moves in their backfields, trading for or signing stars. Others let their top RBs from last season walk in free agency,…...

Could We Be Underestimating the 2020 Running Back Class? The Backfield Dominator Rating Finds 4 Steals Beyond the 5 Flashy Names

Blair Andrews April 21, 2020

The 2020 class of running backs has several prospects that excite fantasy owners. Surprisingly, the scouting community is less enthusiastic. Many mock drafts do not have a single RB being picked in the first round. Many of our favorite backs figure to be Day 3 selections. However, we know the NFL Draft is not an efficient market for extrapolating fantasy value. In the first volume of the Dynasty Command Center Rookie Guide, I explained how focusing on RB production and giving less weight to RB athleticism could help us beat the NFL Draft. One of the metrics I didn’t touch…...

The Paradox of Jalen Reagor and the Problem of WR Speed: A 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile

Blair Andrews March 24, 2020

The 2020 wide receiver class is famous for its glut of elite prospects, with seven different receivers expected to be first rounders, according to Grinding the Mocks. One of those outside the first round is Jalen Reagor. Yet many aspects of Reagor’s profile make him look like he deserves to be at the top of the rankings. Is it possible to be sleeping on a player who will probably garner a top-40 pick? Should the red flags in Reagor’s profile push his draft stock down further? Jalen Reagor Is Both the Most and the Least Productive Top WR By some accounts,…...

Does Hand Size Matter for Wide Receivers? The Wrong Read, No. 61

Blair Andrews March 6, 2020

Welcome to the 61st installment of The Wrong Read. Shawn Siegele’s recent article on 2020 Freak Scores linked to some classic work by Fantasy Douche that renewed my interest in wide receiver hand size. We know, on the one hand, that production is all that matters for WRs. But on the other hand, that last sentence can’t possibly be literally true. So the question is, how do we best measure a metric’s real impact? In a surprise to no one, Henry Ruggs ran a 4.27 forty at the NFL combine. If you’re moving Ruggs up your board after he showed…...

Justin Jefferson Is the Only Rookie WR Who Checks Every Box: A 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile

Blair Andrews February 19, 2020

Coming off a national title win, Justin Jefferson chose to declare for the NFL Draft instead of returning for his senior season. He enters after a true junior season that saw him catch 111 passes for over 1,500 receiving yards and 18 receiving touchdowns. He’s not the top WR in nearly anyone’s rankings, but if we put his production in some context, he’s got a good case for the top spot in the class. College Production Jefferson was a three-star recruit from Destrehan, Louisiana — about a 1.5-hour drive from LSU’s stadium. His home state university was by far the…...

Which WR Prospect Metrics Tell Us Something Unique? The Wrong Read, No. 60

Blair Andrews January 9, 2020

I seem to have become obsessed with correlation matrices, so I’m just going to lean into it. Below you’ll find a correlation matrix with many of our favorite WR prospect evaluation metrics. This is admittedly a simplistic way to look at the predictiveness of various metrics. But there are a number of interesting things going on here, which I’ll point out below. Keep in mind that negative numbers are good for age and draft position. You want a player to be younger and drafted earlier. First, let me explain what some of these metrics are. Many are self-explanatory, but some…...

How to Use Expected Points in the Offseason: 4 More Correlation Matrices

Blair Andrews December 24, 2019

Last week I looked at a variety of Expected-Points-based metrics to determine which were the most stable from one week to the next and which were the most predictive of fantasy scoring in future weeks. However, fantasy football is not only a weekly game — in most formats your lineup won’t vary much from one week to the next. Also, for most of our fantasy teams, 2019 is already in the books. So this week I want to do the same thing as last week, only with a longer time horizon. Which metrics are the most stable and most predictive…...

Zero RB Watch List: NFC Week 16 – Miles Sanders Is a “Buy High” Candidate

Blair Andrews December 18, 2019

Blair Andrews examines the running back workloads for the most contentious NFC backfields ahead of Week 16. Every fantasy team can use a breakout RB, whether their owners drafted them as Zero-RB squads or not. The Zero RB Watch List helps to find these breakout stars before they hit. But it also helps you understand which of the high-profile backs you should be buying and selling based on workload shifts. We’ll use the RotoViz Screener and the NFL Stat Explorer to dive into the advanced stats for the NFC backfields where battles still rage, focusing on expected points (EP), fantasy…...

Why Do We Care About Expected Points? An Explanation in 4 Correlation Matrices

Blair Andrews December 17, 2019

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can look at how players actually perform with their opportunity — how many points they actually score — and arrive at a player’s fantasy points over expectation (FPOE). FPOE turns out to be a catch-all efficiency…...

Zero RB Watch List: AFC Week 15 – He’s No Austin Ekeler, But Can Darwin Thompson Be the Guy for KC?

Blair Andrews December 11, 2019

Blair Andrews examines the running back workloads for the most contentious AFC backfields ahead of Week 15. Almost every fantasy team can use a breakout RB, whether they were drafted as a Zero-RB squad or not. The Zero RB Watch List helps to find these breakout stars before they hit. But it also helps you understand which of the high-profile backs you should be buying and selling based on workload shifts. We’ll use the RotoViz Screener and the NFL Stat Explorer to dive into the Week 14 advanced stats for the AFC backfields that still feature committees and competitions, focusing…...

The Best Rookie Running Back Landing Spots: Vacated RB Expected Points

Blair Andrews April 23, 2020

The early portions of 2020 rookie drafts are expected to be filled with exciting running backs. But the outlooks for our favorite backs depend a lot on which teams draft them. One straightforward way to determine which landing spots are best is to look at which teams have the most…...

Does Hand Size Matter for Wide Receivers? The Wrong Read, No. 61

Blair Andrews March 6, 2020

Welcome to the 61st installment of The Wrong Read. Shawn Siegele’s recent article on 2020 Freak Scores linked to some classic work by Fantasy Douche that renewed my interest in wide receiver hand size. We know, on the one hand, that production is all that matters for WRs. But on…...

Which WR Prospect Metrics Tell Us Something Unique? The Wrong Read, No. 60

Blair Andrews January 9, 2020

I seem to have become obsessed with correlation matrices, so I’m just going to lean into it. Below you’ll find a correlation matrix with many of our favorite WR prospect evaluation metrics. This is admittedly a simplistic way to look at the predictiveness of various metrics. But there are a…...

How to Use Expected Points in the Offseason: 4 More Correlation Matrices

Blair Andrews December 24, 2019

Last week I looked at a variety of Expected-Points-based metrics to determine which were the most stable from one week to the next and which were the most predictive of fantasy scoring in future weeks. However, fantasy football is not only a weekly game — in most formats your lineup…...

Why Do We Care About Expected Points? An Explanation in 4 Correlation Matrices

Blair Andrews December 17, 2019

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform…...

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