Blair Andrews explores the metrics that best predict running back outperformance. The RB fantasy market is exploitable, if we know where to look.
My last article detailed the key wide receiver metrics you need to chase to beat ADP — that is, to return an above-average win rate. In a 12-team league, every team can expect to win about 8.3% of the time, as a baseline. So what does it take to give yourself a better than 1-in-12 chance to win your league? What kind of players should we be drafting to boost our win rates past (sometimes well past) 8.3%?
At WR, the answer was clear: chase past efficiency. No other metric offered such a clear advantage in future win rates as past FPOE. FPOE has, for a long time, been one of our favorite metrics for evaluating player talent. Not only does it tend to persist from one year to the next, and not only does it tend to signal more future opportunity; it is also one of the most undervalued metrics in fantasy.
Many drafters see a high touchdown rate or a high yards-per-target average and assume that variance will ensure these numbers regress to the mean and the player in question will underperform our lofty expectations. In many cases, this is partly true. But this attitude either overestimates the amount of mean regression or underestimates the amount of additional earned opportunity, or both. Indeed, it is the most efficient players from last year who so often seem to blow past our already lofty expectations. If you’re fading a player because he was uber-efficient last year and you don’t think he can keep it up, you’re probably missing out on one of the most explosive fantasy assets. These are the players you should be overweight on, not underweight.
But does this same strategy hold for RBs?
Looking for more RB content? Don’t miss the first installment of Shawn’s Zero-RB Countdown.
