The Wrong Read has had many lives — first as a reflection on insights from the RotoViz podcasts; then as a freeform space for exploring a variety of metrics and strategies. It will likely continue in that latter function, but at least for now — in season — it’s an in-depth matchup lookahead article.
Each week I’ll gather advanced stats from our tools — mainly the Advanced Team Stat Explorer — to paint a picture of the upcoming week and offer some thoughts on how the games might unfold. My interest is in how the games will impact fantasy teams, and as such I’m looking mainly at the metrics that I think can help us predict how different teams and players will (or won’t) score fantasy points.
Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts
- Josh Jacobs is apparently a game-time decision, but is listed as doubtful. Zamir White rushed for 145 yards against Kansas City last week, so the Raiders may not feel a sense of urgency to get Jacobs back on the field.
- Indianapolis presents a soft matchup for opposing runners, which makes White nearly a must start if Jacobs sits.
- Zack Moss will also sit, which leaves Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson to back up Jonathan Taylor. Neither saw much action in last week’s game, though Goodson turned his two touches into 30 total yards. The Raiders are strong against the run, so Goodson’s receiving talent could be useful.
- With Michael Pittman questionable, this also sets up as a good opportunity for Josh Downs. That said, the Raiders have been the third toughest team against wide receivers over the last six weeks.
Atlanta Falcons at Chicago Bears
- The Bears’ run defense is susceptible to big plays, and Atlanta will certainly test them. Only one team averages more rushing attempts than the Falcons.
- That team is the Chicago Bears. In part this ranking comes from Justin Fields’ ability to pick up yards and first downs with his legs. But the Bears are an effective running team in any case, especially compared to their ability to throw the ball.
- While Atlanta is solid on defense in both phases of the game, Chicago also prefers to keep the ball on the ground. This game has an over/under of just 38.
