Can We Find the Next Michael Thomas in the 2023 Rookie Class?
Image Credit: Jordon Kelly/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Michael Thomas.

Michael Thomas immediately earned target volume as a rookie with the Saints. In Thomas’ rookie season, the Saints had three receivers with over 100 targets, including Thomas (121), Brandin Cooks (117), and Willie Snead (104). As a rookie, Thomas ranked 21st in EP/G and third in FPOE/G with a 19% target share.

After Year 1, Thomas posted three consecutive seasons with 145 or more targets. Since 2010, a receiver has earned 145-plus targets in three straight seasons only 12 times. (Larry Fitzgerald landed on that list twice.) Thomas’ rookie season ranks 13th among rookie receivers with at least 100 targets, but there’s a 2023 rookie who garnered the most opportunities by all Year 1 players since 2010. Can this rookie become the next Thomas?

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Corbin Young

A Dominant Veteran and Some Breakout Backs: 2 Big Gap Backfields and Offenses To Target

Corbin Young July 18, 2024

Last time we looked at small gap running backs and identified some undervalued veterans and young backs based on their ADP. Today we’ll cover two big gap backfields, including a veteran joining a new high-powered offense and a breakout running back valued similarly to last season. The idea of small gap and big gap RBs comes from Jack Miller’s research on the win and hit rates…...

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Veterans and Young Running Backs: 2 Small Gap Backfields Offer Opportunities for a Variety of Strategic Approaches

Corbin Young July 8, 2024

Last time, we looked at small gap running backs on two teams with new offensive coordinators to identify undervalued players based on their ADP. Today we’ll cover two more small gap running backs, including a veteran and a younger option. The idea of small gap and big gap RBs comes from Jack Miller’s research on the win and hit rates for big or small gap backs,…...

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Is Najee Harris Finally a Bargain? 2 Small Gap Backfields With New Offensive Coordinators

Corbin Young June 26, 2024

In the past, we’ve looked at big gap and small gap running backs to identify undervalued players based on their ADP. The idea comes from Jack Miller’s research on the win and hit rates for big or small gap backs, and from similar research by Charlie Kleinheksel before that. First, let’s define our terms: B1 and B2 running backs refer to a team’s RB1 and…...

Already a member? Log in here

A Dominant Veteran and Some Breakout Backs: 2 Big Gap Backfields and Offenses To Target

Corbin Young July 18, 2024

Last time we looked at small gap running backs and identified some undervalued veterans and young backs based on their ADP. Today we’ll cover two big gap backfields, including a veteran joining a new high-powered offense and a breakout running back valued similarly to last season. The idea of small gap and big gap RBs comes from Jack Miller’s research on the win and hit rates…...

Already a member? Log in here

Veterans and Young Running Backs: 2 Small Gap Backfields Offer Opportunities for a Variety of Strategic Approaches

Corbin Young July 8, 2024

Last time, we looked at small gap running backs on two teams with new offensive coordinators to identify undervalued players based on their ADP. Today we’ll cover two more small gap running backs, including a veteran and a younger option. The idea of small gap and big gap RBs comes from Jack Miller’s research on the win and hit rates for big or small gap backs,…...

Already a member? Log in here

Is Najee Harris Finally a Bargain? 2 Small Gap Backfields With New Offensive Coordinators

Corbin Young June 26, 2024

In the past, we’ve looked at big gap and small gap running backs to identify undervalued players based on their ADP. The idea comes from Jack Miller’s research on the win and hit rates for big or small gap backs, and from similar research by Charlie Kleinheksel before that. First, let’s define our terms: B1 and B2 running backs refer to a team’s RB1 and…...

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