Kevin Szafraniec analyzes the past six years of best ball ADP data in the Win Rate Explorer and compares it against running back PPR scoring to find out how accurately drafters are predicting team depth charts prior to the season.
While I was researching best ball stacks recently, a few interesting trends emerged that caused me to question how accurately preseason positional ADPs align with end-of-season PPR scoring on a team level. After combing through all of the data at the wide receiver position, now it’s time to tackle the running backs.
For this exercise, we will be using the past six years of ADP data from the Best Ball Win Rate Explorer (WRE) and combining it with the PPR data from the RotoViz Screener for Weeks 1-17 of the 2020-2025 seasons. In total, we have a sample that consists of 192 NFL teams and 925 RBs — 510 who carried an ADP in FFPC best ball slim leagues and 415 who went undrafted.
There are a couple of very important details that we must take into account when it comes to the Screener. First, the tool assigns players to the teams they were on when they finished the season, so there will be some discrepancies for players who switched teams during the year. Second, the tool includes fullbacks in its RB data. However, no fullbacks in the sample carried an ADP into the season.
Before we get into the data, it is important to note that not all of the results come down to pure talent. Obviously, injuries will always play a part in any discussion. Additionally, best ball drafts aren’t always about projecting depth charts as much as they are about searching for upside and late-season breakouts. But the information is still actionable and should provide signal as to our ability as a community to properly predict how each season will shake out.
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