Derrick Henry hits the market having led the 2023 free-agent RB class in PPR points, rushing attempts (ruATTS), rushing touchdowns (ruTDS), rushing expected points (ruEP), and rushing fantasy points over expectation (ruFPOE) last season.
It took a while for the shock to wear off. It won’t be as strange as seeing Tom Brady switch to pewter and crimson, but picturing Henry in any other uniform will throw off the balance of the universe at least a little. Nevertheless, once the fantasy community came to terms with the breakup, the next question – where will he end up? – offered up one apparent mouthwatering option: the Baltimore Ravens.
THE RUNNING GAME HAS LONG BEEN THE CROWN JEWEL OF THE RAVENS’ OFFENSE
Henry—all grass, little pass—aligning with the Ravens, who have historically played smashmouth football, feels like a perfect marriage. Since the Ray Rice era unceremoniously ended, the things the Ravens have been able to do on the ground have come mainly at a discount, with cheap veterans like Mark Ingram, Justin Forsett, Devonta Freeman, Latavius Murray, and Gus Edwards getting most of the run and an occasional rookie sweetheart like J.K. Dobbins becoming icons of untapped potential.
Since committing to Lamar Jackson as their QB in 2019, the Ravens have maintained the No.1 rush rate in the NFL, running on 50% of their total snaps. From a neutral script, the rate is even higher at 52%. In 2023, under new OC Todd Monken, despite throwing more out of a neutral script, Baltimore still led the league with a 49% rush rate. This is because they spent 2023 slaughtering everyone, leading the NFL in snaps while ahead by seven or more points, prompting them to shift to run-heavier game plans.
IS IT NEVERMORE FOR HENRY’S HIGH-VALUE TOUCHES?
Since 2019, all Ravens RBs combined rank dead last in the NFL in targets (reTRGS), receptions (reRECS), and receiving expected points (reEP), and 31st in receiving yards (reYDS). Extensive studies have demonstrated a strong negative correlation between passing statistics for RBs playing with rushing QBs, so this is somewhat expected.
| reRECS | reTRGS | reYDS | reEP | reFPOE | |
| Ravens RBs | 223 | 282 | 1772 | 415.8 | 40.4 |
| Rank | 32 | 32 | 31 | 32 | 13 |
| Difference, Ravens Against League AVG | -159.41 | -215.03 | -1088.5 | -313.48 | 15.031 |
But it doesn’t stop there; it’s generally an all-out assault when it comes to High-Value Touches (HVT) and a team is led by a rushing QB because they typically eat up several ground opportunities from in close. However, that has not been the case in Baltimore, as the Ravens rank fourth in RB rush scores since Jackson took over full-time in 2019. Under the new Monken regime in 2023, Edwards was preferred in the Green Zone, leading the team with 30 GZ rushing attempts, which was good for 7th in the NFL. Edwards tied for third in ruTDS among RBs last year, behind only Raheem Mostert and Christian McCaffrey.
