Bypassing the 2024 NFL Draft to transfer to the University of Miami paid off huge for Cam Ward, as he went from being a potential Day 2 selection last season to the top overall pick one year later. Ward’s arm talent is evident. At times, he almost makes things look too easy, displaying a calm demeanor in the pocket while throwing from a multitude of platforms and arm angles. Making the exceptional look commonplace is part of Ward’s allure, but he is more than just highlight-reel throws, and he should have plenty of chances to prove it early in his career.
Tennessee has struggled at the quarterback position since Ryan Tannehill left Nashville. After two seasons of trying to make it work with Will Levis, the Titans have conceded that it is time to move on. The Titans’ needs are not limited to the QB position, and the team is unlikely to turn things around entirely in one season. With Tennessee once again likely to be playing from behind for much of the 2025 season, exactly how much passing volume should we be expecting Ward to get in his debut season, and more importantly, will he be able to deliver on his potential as the first overall pick?
Cam Ward’s NFL Comps
Ward’s journey to the NFL has been a winding road, starting with two years at FCS-level Incarnate Word, then transferring to Washington State for another two seasons before finally ending up in Miami in 2024 and rocketing to the top of the 2025 NFL Draft.
Not only did Ward grow year over year during his time in college, but his scheme-adjusted final season numbers were on par with or better than most of the top QBs from the highly touted 2024 class. Ward’s 126.1 IQR in 2024 trailed only Dillon Gabriel (138.5 IQR) in the 2025 QB class and Bo Nix (139.5), Caleb Williams (135.1), and Jayden Daniels (133.8) from the 2024 class. His 14.1 ANY/A in 2024 only fell behind the final season numbers of the same quartet of players over the past two seasons.
When it comes to big plays, the 2024 QB class drops out entirely, as Ward’s 44.8% passing boom rate in 2024 only trails Gabriel’s 2023 and 2024 numbers among NFL-caliber college QBs. Not only does Ward put up big plays, but he also avoids costly mistakes. Over the past two seasons, his passing bust rates of 9.4% in 2023 and 8.1% in 2024 both rank among the best marks in college football.
Even though Ward is no burner, he has proven to be productive on the ground when he needs to be. His rushing positive rate of 55.0% only trails Daniels among QBs drafted in the past two years, while his 28.3% rushing boom rate is best among the cohort. While with the Hurricanes, Ward was also able to curtail a concerning fumbling problem, seeing his total drop to only three after putting the ball on the ground 12 times with the Cougars in 2023.
As the offseason progressed, it became apparent that Ward would be the first QB taken in the draft. By the time the draft rolled around, it was clear that the Titans would be taking him with the first overall pick. While Ward’s draft capital has a great deal to do with the names that populate his list of comps in the Box Score Scout, seeing Matthew Stafford toward the top feels appropriate as a strong stylistic representation of how Ward plays the game.
