What would you pay for a young, supercharged version of Aaron Jones, especially if he labored for one of the NFL’s best offenses?
For years, I’ve forced myself to avoid Zero RB hits during their follow-up seasons. After all, taking the next step and becoming a 350-point sensation requires a mix of attributes that is incredibly difficult to deliver.
Of course, it’s always tempting to make exceptions for our favorites. That’s precisely why I have the rule. Once we start making exceptions, we start tilting the playing field against ourselves instead of loading up on positive asymmetrical bets.
Here’s a look at the points implied by 2025 ADP using the scoring levels of the last eight years.
Points Implied by ADP (2017-2024)
Of course, in most of those seasons, RBs have been more expensive than what is reflected in 2025 prices, so the scoring gap between the positions was larger. Chasing your Zero RB winners out of sentimental attachment would have frequently cost you the following season.
But the new RB prices cut both ways, and the 2024 campaign finally started to flesh out the RB position. If we focus only on 2024, we get a slightly different look.
Although 2024 was an anomaly in RB health and scoring, we might be surprised that ADP hasn’t shifted back a bit further in favor of RBs. In a 2-2-2 format (2-RB, 2-WR, 2-Flex) like the FFPC, the first three rounds are evenly balanced between RBs and WRs. This type of RB/WR pricing will often reflect the dynamic in home leagues as well.
With the current RB prices, will following the age-old guideline hurt us in 2025?
In today’s exercise, we’ll break down the history of a specific type of Zero RB hit and investigate whether conditions are in place for a 2024 favorite to beat ADP again this season.
