Kevin Szafraniec highlights some of the biggest NFL storylines of the week, as seen through the eyes of RotoViz’s staff and our industry-leading suite of tools.
Trade deadlines are coming up quickly in fantasy leagues across all platforms and formats. Whether we are trying to stock up for a playoff run or — in the case of our dynasty rosters — perpetuate our permanent championship window, one tried and true tactic for maximizing fantasy rosters down the stretch is to acquire emerging rookies. It is quite convenient that the trade deadline generally coincides with when we start to see many first-year players turn the corner, providing an opportunity to see outsized returns by adding rookies who have not quite lived up to expectations in their NFL debuts.
In The Banana Stand this week, Shawn Siegele outlined four contrarian tactics to implement in dynasty leagues at the trade deadline. The final strategy he included was to buy rookies whose value will likely appreciate significantly this offseason. Shawn then went on to pinpoint 12 first-year players who fit the mold fantasy managers should be looking for:
Idea #4 Buy the Disappointing/Hurt Rookies
The trade deadline fuels trade engagement, which makes it a great time to add players who fit the “disappointment” label currently and yet could experience a massive surge in production down the stretch.
- Ashton Jeanty
- Tetairoa McMillan
- Omarion Hampton
- Colston Loveland
- R.J. Harvey
- Cam Skattebo
- Bhayshul Tuten
- Luther Burden
- Jayden Higgins
- Terrance Ferguson
- Tre Harris
- Kaleb Johnson
As was the case in the previous category, these names come from different dynasty tiers, but all of these rookies are likely to be more expensive in two months.
- In recent weeks, Loveland, Harvey, Burden, and Higgins all flashed the possibility of a big run to end the season.
- If the peripherals remain strong, the short-term situations for Jeanty and McMillan won’t be as much of an emphasis heading into the offseason.
- The injuries for Hampton and Skattebo will no longer have the same relevance.
- Bigger disappointments like Ferguson, Harris, and Johnson offer little risk at their new value levels.
The Banana Stand: 4 Contrarian Trade Strategies as the FFPC Dynasty Trade Deadline Nears
Throughout the week, some of these names have been highlighted in our other articles as well. Let’s dive a little deeper and see what the rest of the RotoViz staff had to say about their favorite rest-of-season rookie breakouts.
Running Backs
After putting up two massive performances in a five-day stretch, it would appear that the buy-low window for TreVeyon Henderson has now closed. Before Henderson’s three-TD outburst on Thursday night, I outlined his Week 10 performance in the Monday Review and took a look ahead at his rest-of-season schedule:
The skill set that Henderson has displayed this year feels reminiscent of what Achane offered to the Dolphins as a rookie. However, Henderson does not find himself surrounded by the same level of playmakers Achane had at receiver and in the backfield, potentially leading to more defensive attention focused on him while he is in the game.
On the other hand, Henderson does have the advantage of playing alongside an ascending superstar in quarterback Drake Maye. And while New England’s offensive line was highlighted mainly as a weakness this offseason, they have actually been performing well based on Sports Info Solutions’ efficiency metrics, heading into Week 10 ranking as a borderline top-10 unit in all of blown block rate (on both pass and run plays), points earned per play, points above average per play, and wins above replacement.
With the extent of Jennings’ knee injury uncertain and no clarity on when Rhamondre Stevenson will return from his toe injury, now is the time when we should be able to see exactly who the real TreVeyon Henderson is. Over the remainder of the fantasy season, the Patriots’ RBs have the fifth-best fantasy schedule in the league. While their Week 11 matchup against the Jets may not seem ideal on the surface, it becomes less worrisome knowing the Jets no longer have Quinnen Williams anchoring their defensive front. With that in mind, Henderson could have one of the best runouts in the league over the next few weeks as the Patriots’ featured back, providing him with an ideal opportunity to quickly rewrite the narrative regarding his disappointing rookie season.
Week 10 Monday Review: Dominant Running Back Performances Rule the Day
Even though it will surely be more difficult to pry Henderson away from his current manager now, the looming return of Stevenson may have some looking to sell high, especially considering the Patriots still have yet to hit their bye week. While he won’t come cheap, there is still a chance that Henderson’s dynasty value could hit a fever pitch this summer if he continues his explosive ascent up the RB ranks.
Another second-round rookie who was supported by a similar thesis as Henderson during the preseason was RJ Harvey. While the Broncos’ speedster has flashed at points this season—including a three-TD performance in Week 8 — he has yet to put together a truly signature performance, mostly due to J.K. Dobbins taking the majority of the touches in Denver’s backfield.
In Harvey’s defense, it is difficult to consistently produce when you’re only seeing single-digit opportunities every week.
But what Harvey has been doing with his limited opportunities should have fantasy managers’ mouths watering, as 2025’s RB8 in total fantasy points over expectation (FPOE) will be leading the Denver backfield for at least one week while Dobbins sits out with a foot injury.
In Friday’s RB Advanced Stats article, Corbin Young broke down the production of the Broncos’ run game up to this point and what we might see from Harvey in a lead role while Dobbins is sidelined:
The Broncos’ offensive line was helping J.K. Dobbins create yards before contact while also forcing the second-highest percentage (22%) of missed tackles behind Jaylen Warren. Dobbins ranks 22nd in YAC/Att and 22nd in evasion rate on the season, making him one of the better mid-round options that felt like a dead-zone type back. Unfortunately, Dobbins is dealing with a foot injury, with speculation that he could miss multiple weeks.
Maybe, just maybe, it’s the RJ Harvey breakout from a workload standpoint. Weirdly, Harvey’s running back advanced stats don’t look great. That’s evident in Harvey averaging 3.1 YAC/Att, a 6% evasion rate, and a 22% stuff rate on 50 rush attempts. Harvey has lacked opportunities, with only one game featuring 10 or more opportunities, which came in Week 4 against the Bengals. He ranks 44th in EP/G while being the 11th-most efficient running back in FPOE/G.
Specifically, over the past five games, Dobbins has accounted for 59% of the team’s rush attempts. Meanwhile, Harvey only garnered 15% of the carries in Weeks 6-10. Touchdowns have boosted Harvey’s fantasy points, especially with the spike week against the Cowboys in Week 8, with three touchdowns on eight opportunities. That’s further evident in Harvey averaging the 10th-most FPOE/G in Weeks 6-10, as the only running back with under 10 EP/G besides Brittain Brown‘s one-game sample.
The Broncos’ offensive line helps boost their running back production, ranking fifth in adjusted yards before contact per attempt, while facing a Chiefs’ run defense giving up the 18th-highest adjusted YBC/Att. If Dobbins misses Week 11, Sean Payton will mix in Tyler Badie and Jaleel McLaughlin, who have solid receiving profiles at the position.
Week 10 Running Back Advanced Stats: The TreVeyon Henderson Effect
Wide Receivers
Tampa Bay has not one but two rookie wideouts who are making waves. While we are all familiar with Emeka Egbuka’s brilliance as the Buccaneers’ WR1 this season, Tez Johnson is also staking his claim as a viable starter in fantasy lineups, which resulted in him headlining this week’s Waivers column:
Two touchdowns powered Johnson’s WR12 finish in Week 11. His two-score game brought Johnson up to four since Week 6, helping him average 14.2 PPR/GM over that span.
Johnson’s 16.4% target share over the past four games trails Emeka Egbuka (27.1%) and Cade Otton (22.9%) by a significant margin, yet Johnson has still been able to lead the Buccaneers’ receivers in fantasy scoring.
With Chris Godwin potentially out for up to another month, Johnson should remain a top-three option in a strong passing attack. He should continue to be worth a start as a WR3 or flex in the meantime, especially considering the Buccaneers’ wideouts have favorable matchups in three of their next four games.
Even when Godwin returns, Johnson should continue to at least be featured in three-WR sets, which should allow him to carry some value for the remainder of the season.
Week 11 Waivers: Is Tez Johnson Proving to the NFL That Size Really Doesn’t Matter?
It is fair to call Johnson’s recent TD streak unsustainable. But he has been running as the clear WR2 in Tampa Bay’s offense recently and will continue to do so for at least another week with Godwin already ruled out against the Bills. After Godwin only put together two unproductive games in a full-time role in his initial return from injury this year, it feels pretty safe to say Johnson should remain heavily involved whenever the Buccaneers’ veteran is able to get back on the field.
Another factor that should give the entire Buccaneers’ offense a boost moving forward is a healthy offensive line. In Thomas Emerick’s Week 11 edition of the Offensive Lines and Their Fantasy Impact article, he explains how the rising tide up front could lift all boats in Tampa Bay:
The Bucs’ OL cavalry has fully arrived. Baker Mayfield ran for his life in the early weeks without OTs Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke, but the former returned in October and the latter this past Sunday. However, Mayfield’s rushing production has vanished, which might also be attributed to his knee and oblique injuries.
Wirfs is a stud, and Goedeke’s reliably above-average, while utility lineman Charlie Heck landed near the bottom of the list of graded tackles this season. Ideally, this upgrade to the incumbents helps funnel quality touches to a healthy Bucky Irving and Chris Godwinin the near future, and catalyzes Emeka Egbuka sprinting away with Offensive Rookie of the Year.
One oversight on my part in this week’s Waivers article that I wish I had elaborated upon more was the value that Jayden Higgins and Luther Burden III could provide fantasy managers over the remainder of the season. For the latter, I was at least able to rectify this later in the week by highlighting Burden’s extreme efficiency in the WR Advanced Stats article:
While Egbuka paces all rookies in raw production, no rookie — or perhaps no WR regardless of time spent in the league — is doing more with less than Burden. Despite his 18 targets ranking 104th at the position, Burden comes in at 26th in total FPOE. And it is not as if outlier touchdown numbers are inflating his efficiency, as he has reached the end zone only once through eight games.
While a concussion did knock Burden out for the Bears’ high-scoring matchup with the Bengals in Week 9, he returned to the field last week and was his usual efficient self, bringing in all three of his targets and turning them into 51 receiving yards. This led to an average of 2.7 yards per route on Burden’s 18 routes, just a tick below his seasonal average. In fact, the Bears’ rookie currently comes in tied for 10th among all wideouts with an average of 2.8 yards per route run this year, a ranking that moves up to fifth if we only look at players who have run more than 21 routes in 2025.
Not only is Burden’s efficiency a good sign for his future prospects, but fantasy managers who have been patient with him up to this point could be rewarded with an opportunity to play him in the near future. DJ Moore and Rome Odunze have been dealing with a myriad of ailments lately, with both missing practice on Wednesday before returning in a limited capacity on Thursday. Even if the Bears’ receiving corps is at full strength this week, it feels like only a matter of time before Burden starts to earn a larger role in the offense. Olamide Zaccheaus’ -21.9 FPOE is the third-worst mark of any WR, so it probably won’t even take an injury ahead of Burden for him to emerge.
Burden’s time is coming, even if it has taken a little longer than expected. He has done nothing in his rookie year to make us believe that he is anything other than the electric receiver we saw him as coming out of Missouri.
Tight Ends
I have spent a whole lot of time in these newsletters talking about rookie TEs, so I’m going to switch it up a bit by looking at a second-year player at the position who is helping fuel a breakout from his rookie signal caller. Even though Jaxson Dart will be sitting out this week due to a concussion, Neil Dutton still found it fitting to include Theo Johnson as one of his top TE streamers for the week, even with the possibility of Russell Wilson starting against Green Bay being very real at the time his article was written:
Theo Johnson is not putting up earth-shattering numbers in 2025. But his nose for the end zone makes him an enticing prospect nearly every single week.
A TE who commands a good chunk of a team’s air yards and loves scoring touchdowns is a TE you should consider plugging into your lineups. There is a slight danger this week, however. Jaxson Dart suffered a concussion in the Giants’ loss to the Bears. His Week 11 status is unknown at the time of writing, meaning the Giants might return Russell Wilson to the starting QB role. Wilson has not enjoyed the same level of spark with Johnson as Dart has, with Mr. Unlimited severely cramping Johnson’s fantasy output in 2025.
Wilson has targeted Johnson 16 times this season, with the TE reeling in 11 of these for 101 scoreless yards. By contrast, Dart has targeted Johnson 35 times, and all of Johnson’s touchdowns have come from Dart passes. But we should remember that Wilson had Malik Nabers available when he was originally the starter. That window has, of course, closed. This might force Wilson to finally embrace the concept of feeding a TE in the passing game. Hopefully Dart plays, and we don’t have to worry about this.
Before Monday night’s offense-free clash with the Eagles, opposition TEs had started to enjoy some success against the Packers. From Weeks 4 through 9, TEs were averaging seven receptions per game against the Pack. They weren’t bleeding fantasy points, it’s true. In that span, only one TE had more than 40 receiving yards against them. And that was Trey McBride, who’s quite handy at playing TE. But Johnson has been a reliable weapon in a topsy-turvy passing game for the Giants. This, plus his ability to find the endzone, keeps him somewhat interesting in this matchup.
Later in the week, it was revealed that Jameis Winston, not Wilson, would be piloting the Giants’ offense against the Packers. Winston’s gun-slinging ways should help holdover the second-year TE’s fantasy production until Dart returns, while also helping the Packers’ defense become one of Ross Durham’s top options in his D/ST Streamers article this week:
Green Bay Packers (vs. Giants): $3600 on DraftKings/Available in 40.0% of ESPN Leagues
Another expensive option, but for good reason. The Giants are going broke the same way Hemingway once described: gradually, then suddenly. First, they lost Malik Nabers, then Cam Skattebo, then an offensive lineman or two, and finally Jaxson Dart. If Dart doesn’t clear concussion protocol by this weekend, then the Giants are set to start Jameis Winston. It’s possible Winston is an upgrade over Russell Wilson, but limiting turnovers has never been the gunslinging journeyman’s specialty. The Packers, meanwhile, have allowed the third-fewest yards to opposing teams and have one of the best all-around defensive units in the game. The Giants D/ST is actually an intriguing option too at $2300, but if both are available in your home league, it’s best not to play it too fancy.
I also had this to add about Johnson in this week’s Waivers article:
Dart’s concussion knocks Theo Johnson down a notch for this week, but there is still plenty of upside for the rest of the season. Since Dart took over as the starter in Week 4, Johnson leads the Giants’ receivers in PPR points and ranks second to Wan’Dale Robinson (27.9%) with a 20.1% target share.
In Dart’s time as a starter, Johnson has ranked as the PPR TE7.
It feels like Johnson’s connection with his rookie QB is flying a bit under the radar, which should make him a low-cost option to acquire at the trade deadline. While I would stop short of saying Johnson will be a surefire bet to carry over his production into 2026, it is not outside the realm of possibility that he continues to operate as a low-end TE1 for the next several years alongside Dart.
