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Kevin Szafraniec highlights some of the biggest NFL storylines of the week, as seen through the eyes of RotoViz’s staff and our industry-leading suite of tools.
In this week’s installment of The Banana Stand, Shawn Siegele continued his exercise of ranking every team in the NFL by looking at the top half of the league while also predicting the outcome of every regular-season game through Week 18. Once Shawn reached his top 12 teams, half of the remaining entrants on the list resided in two divisions: the AFC South and NFC West. Each division slotted three teams apiece into the top 12, and while I am not going to reveal which spots each team came in at — if you want the full breakdown, you’ll have to read the article for yourself — I will divulge that one of these six teams does hold the No. 1 spot on the list.
AFC South
As things currently stand, the 8-4 Jacksonville Jaguars hold a tiebreaker over the 8-4 Indianapolis Colts atop the division as the two teams head into their first of two 2025 meetings on Sunday. When breaking down the matchup in his article, Shawn gave a slight edge to the homefield Jaguars:
Colts @ Jaguars: The Jags have three signature victories in the 49ers, Chiefs, and Chargers, the latter two of which set them up in good tiebreaker position. They’ve moved into a tie atop the crowded AFC South, and could deal a mortal blow to a Colts squad dealing with Daniel Jones’ limited mobility and the psychological blow of Sauce Gardner’s injury. Edge: Jaguars
These two division rivals have been trending in different directions recently. Jacksonville has won three straight and four of their last five. Indianapolis has lost two in a row and three of four after kicking off the season as the toast of the NFL after rattling off a 7-1 record.
The Jaguars are getting healthy and could be getting hot at just the right time. While Brenton Strange’s return to the lineup may not have been headline material for casual fans, he has been a revelation for fantasy managers. So much so, in fact, that Strange was the cover boy for Neil Dutton’s TE Streamers article this week:
Brenton Strange has wasted no time in asserting himself in the Jaguars’ offense since returning from injury. In the last two weeks, Strange ranks third with nine targets as well as second in receptions and receiving yards. He has eight receptions for 138 yards and — glory be — his first touchdown of the season in that time. As expected, his output has made him interesting in fantasy circles too.
Strange and the Jaguars have a dogfight with the Colts ahead of them this week. The once all-conquering Colts have been particularly generous towards TEs in recent weeks. They’ve given up seven receptions for 72.4 yards per game over their last five games. They also rank third in the NFL over that span in air yards allowed to TEs. This is another boon to Strange, as he ranks eighth among all TEs with 7.8 air yards per target this season.
On top of Strange’s return two weeks ago, the Jaguars just got Brian Thomas Jr. back to pair with trade deadline acquisition Jakobi Meyers. In this week’s WR Advanced Stats article, I took a look at how Meyers has been adapting to his new surroundings and what fantasy managers might expect from him through the end of the season:
Speaking of burgeoning connections, Jakobi Meyers seems to be settling in pretty well with Trevor Lawrence since being acquired by Jacksonville at the trade deadline. The only time Meyers has fallen below a 20% target share with the Jaguars was in Week 10, which was his first game with the team. Since then, he has a 23% target share and ranks as the PPR WR12.
While Meyers’ volume has actually gone down since coming to Jacksonville, both the quality of his looks and his ability to bring them in have increased significantly. Despite his IAY/GM dropping by 15 yards, Meyers is converting 10 more of his IAY/GM, leading to his air yards conversion rate (AYC%) nearly doubling. Much of this rise has been fueled not only by a solid increase in catchable target rate but also by Meyers bringing in his catchable targets at a higher frequency.
Week 13 represented a true test of where Meyers sat in the Jaguars’ target pecking order, as Brian Thomas Jr. returned from an ankle injury that had kept him out since Week 9. Meyers ended up leading the team in targets while slotting in just behind Thomas for fourth in IAY. However, Meyers led the team in converted air yards (CAY) after pulling in all six of his targets.
Whether Meyers re-signs with Jacksonville this offseason remains to be seen, but considering how well things are going so far, we shouldn’t rule it out. If that were to come to fruition, the return of Travis Hunter in 2026 could make things messy for all parties involved. But at least for 2025, we should enjoy the returns that we are getting from Meyers in his new home, as he looks like a solid WR2 play from here on out.
Unfortunately, the passing game hasn’t been all roses for the Jaguars this year, and the problems start at the top, as Shawn lays out:
The problem for Jacksonville can be found at the QB position. Trevor Lawrence ranks No. 24 in IQR, behind players like Justin Fields, Bryce Young, and Geno Smith, and No. 25 in points above average per play. Playoff teams can’t have QBs with negative WAR in the passing game. Lawrence takes sacks (7%) and lacks accuracy (70.5% on target), but does make that up with competitiveness (fifth-most QB ruEP) and arm strength (8.5 aDOT).
On the other side of this Week 14 showdown, the Colts have married efficiency in the run and pass games to create one of the most balanced offensive attacks in the league, per Shawn:
Indianapolis presents an elite 1-2 punch, with Jones fifth in the NFL in passing yards, and Taylor No. 1 in rushing. That’s all true despite ranking nearly the bottom of the pack with only 61 plays per 60 minutes. The Colts’ balanced attack includes a 62/38 pass-run split in the first half, and 52/48 split in the second as Taylor finishes off defenses.
With limited play volume, the Colts are getting there on efficiency. Jones is completing 68% of his passes despite attacking 8.1 yards downfield on average. He’s limiting both INTs and sacks. Indy’s receiving weapons are not among the league’s elite, but it’s a deep and varied crew that’s performed well after the catch.
Indianapolis is also a good example of why RBs matter, especially if you don’t overuse them. Contrary to what the Eagles have tried so catastrophically this season, Indy lets Taylor play off the passing game.
The Colts have the best rushing offense in football, yet go to it relatively infrequently. Some of this is the total play volume issue, but plenty is tactics. Also, unlike Detroit, Indianapolis understands that you only want to run with a true star. Taylor ranks No. 1 in the league in snap share (85%) and team attempt share (72%). That allows him to get his work without needing more total running plays — plays that would damage the overall offense.
The Colts and Jaguars aren’t the only AFC South teams heading into a matchup with huge playoff implications this week. The 7-4 Texans sit one game behind their division rivals and head into Kansas City riding a four-game win streak. The strength of Houston’s roster lies on the defensive side of the ball, as Shawn points out:
Unlike the Seahawks, who have had the fourth-easiest DST schedule, Houston has had the fourth-hardest.
Against that slate, they’ve been an absolute wrecking ball. You can’t run on them, and this is what their pass defense looks like.
On the full season, they allow the fifth-lowest number in yards per cover snap. Will Anderson has the second-highest pressure percentage among all pass rushers, higher even than Myles Garrett and Micah Parsons.
In what was little more than a footnote in Ross Durham’s D/ST Streamers article, he urges fantasy managers to keep an eye out for Houston’s top-ranked defense on waivers on the off chance someone in your league gets spooked by their matchup with the Chiefs and opts to go in a different direction:
Note: The Texans are the D/ST1, have an incredible run of playoff matchups, and should be the most sought-after playoff defense on the market. If some careless league mate drops them this week because of their matchup with the Chiefs, be ready to pounce.
While most of Houston’s fireworks come on the defensive side of the ball, there has been progress on the offensive side of the ball as of late. A big part of that has been the emergence of second-round pick Jayden Higgins, who was the headliner for this week’s Waivers column:
Jayden Higgins (ESPN 36.4%, Yahoo 35%)
Luther Burden III (ESPN 7.6%, Yahoo 10%)
I dove into both of these rookies in this space last week, and they did nothing in Week 13 to deter us from the belief that a breakout is on the horizon. While their overall stat lines were not mind-blowing, each earned at least a 15% target share for the third straight game. My current lean is toward Higgins, but the gap is close. Neither rookie should still be available on waivers in any league, yet here they are. Take advantage.
Given how tight the top of this division is, the Colts, Jaguars, and Texans do get a bit of a reprieve by getting two games apiece against Shawn’s 32nd-ranked team, the 1-11 Titans. In his D/ST article, Ross gave a brief glimpse into Tennessee’s offensive futility while propping up the Cleveland defense as the best play of the week:
Cleveland Browns (vs. Titans): $3700 on DraftKings/Available in 32.0% of ESPN Leagues
This one is pretty tough to argue with. Cleveland continues to be an elite defense behind the historic play of Myles Garrett. The Titans are giving up 12.2ppg to opposing D/STs-head and shoulders above any other offense (and very consistent too). The math is pretty simple. Sportsbooks have set the Over/Under for this matchup at 33.5 total points, the lowest of any game this season, and the Browns are 4.5-point favorites. It’s a matchup so good I’d even be willing to pony up at their hefty daily tournament price whenever I can fit it into a lineup. Sometimes even the most expensive D/STs pay off, as the Seahawks proved against the Vikings last weekend. As a bonus, Cleveland has exploitable matchups against the Bears and Steelers during the fantasy playoffs too.
NFC West
The Rams’ loss to the Panthers on Sunday was not only one of the more unexpected outcomes of the day but also cost them their spot atop the NFC standings. Despite not pulling out the win, at least one Ram went out in style, as Puka Nacua may have had the catch of the year in the contest. I broke down Nacua’s incredible reception in the Monday Review, highlighting it as one of three extraordinary catches made this past week:
The first — and in my opinion, the most impressive — came from Puka Nacua. Based on this photo, you would never be able to guess that Nacua actually pulled this ball in.
When the ball arrives, Mike Jackson has more surface area of his hand on the ball than Nacua does. Yet Nacua is able to cup the ball between his hand and wrist, wrest the ball away from Jackson, and pin it against his stomach. Although the Rams were not able to pull out the win in Carolina, and Davante Adams continues to vulture receiving TDs at an alarming rate, Nacua remains the driving force of a team that could make a deep playoff run.
Despite the tough loss, Shawn explains why there are still plenty of reasons to remain optimistic about the Rams moving forward:
[Matthew] Stafford ranks No. 1 in ANYA, No. 2 in IQR, No. 3 in WAR, and No. 3 in EPA. He leads the league in TD percentage and in both deep attempts and efficiency (IQR), while ranking second in deep accuracy. He doesn’t take sacks.
It’s hard to imagine what his numbers might look like if Davante Adams could catch in any area of the field outside the green zone. Adams’ on-target catch percentage (77%) is the third worst in football. Adams has failed to haul in 22 catchable passes, one more on the downside than even Jerry Jeudy. (Emeka Egbuka has failed to catch 29 such passes, worst in football.)
The Rams complement that passing attack with an efficient run game. L.A. wanted more explosives this season, but they’ll be happy with so many yards after contact.
Corbin Young expanded upon the Rams’ run game in his RB Advanced Stats article, highlighting Kyren Williams and Blake Corum for the second week in a row:
It only took 26 games — nearly two full seasons — for Blake Corum to pop off in a small sample. Jokes aside, Corum averaged 7.6 yards after contact per attempt (YAC/Att) on seven rush attempts in Week 13. Corum also averaged four yards before contact per attempt (YBC/Att). We could brush off Corum as a small sample or recognize that he deserves more attention.
It’s probably a mix of both, since Corum averaged 2.6 YAC/Att in 2025 across 89 rush attempts. That’s similar to Kyren Williams‘s 2.8 YAC/Att with twice as many rush attempts. We discussed the Rams’ backfield last week, noting that Corum continues to chip away at Williams’s workload.
The Rams face the NFC West cellar-dwelling Arizona Cardinals in Week 14. Although Arizona’s 3-9 record is not going to intimidate anyone, the Cardinals’ offensive attack is miles ahead of where the Titans currently stand. In this week’s Wrong Read, Blair Andrews broke down the outlooks of Stafford and Trey McBride. And if the GLSP can tell us anything, it’s that we might be in for a high-flying affair in Glendale this Sunday:
LAR pass offense: No. 3 in pressure rate allowed (25.6%), No. 6 in yards per play (6.72).
ARI pass defense: No. 31 in yards per play allowed (7.33), No. 28 in pressure rate (26.5%), No. 25 in YACOE allowed (20.2).
Arizona’s pass defense has been a sieve, allowing the second-most yards per pass play in the league. The Cardinals blitz at a fairly high rate (33.5%), but they’ve struggled to convert pressure into disruption — their 8.9% sack rate ranks in the bottom 10. The Rams, meanwhile, lead the league in passing touchdowns per game and use play-action more than any offense. Stafford’s floor looks solid in what should be a favorable game environment (47.5 total, Rams favored by 8.5). And Arizona’s aggressive (though non-effective) approach could create some explosive opportunities if Sean McVay dials up the right protections.
ARI pass offense: No. 1 in pass attempts per game (47.2), No. 3 in YACOE (28.7).
LAR pass defense: No. 31 in blitz rate (19.5%), No. 25 in pressure rate (29.5%).
McBride has been the league’s most valuable fantasy tight end, and this matchup does nothing to change that. Arizona’s league-leading pass volume funnels targets his direction week after week, and the Rams don’t generate enough pressure to disrupt Jacoby Brissett’s timing on this connection. The 25.6 ceiling ranks higher than most receivers on the slate. McBride is the set-and-forget option at the position.
Running neck-and-neck with the Rams are the 9-3 Seahawks. When Seattle came down to Los Angeles for a divisional matchup three weeks ago, the Seahawks went home with the victory despite Sam Darnold throwing four interceptions. Quite obviously, the rematch in Week 16 is shaping up to have major playoff implications. Shawn dove a little deeper into Darnold’s 2025 profile while also submitting his ballot for this year’s MVP award a month early:
The Seahawks’ passing offense ranks No. 1 in passing yards per play, but it has little to do with Darnold. Seattle gives up the second-lowest pressure rate and gains the fifth-most yards after the catch over expected. The Seahawks’ offensive line ranks No. 1 in points earned per snap on passing plays.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is averaging 111.3 yards per game, 16 clear of George Pickens, on a team that has far and away the fewest dropbacks. With a 0.7 edge in yards per route over Puka Nacua and almost a yard-and-a-half over everyone else, JSN is so obviously the NFL’s MVP that even having a discussion is silly.
To his credit, Darnold ranks seventh in IQR and second in ANYA. He throws one of the most accurate deep balls in the NFL (tops in completion percentage, third in on-target percentage).
Unfortunately, no one fails the eye test like Darnold. He doesn’t like to take sacks, but panics when he stands in under pressure and throws too many picks as a result. The extent to which he’s been carried by WR play and coaching brilliance is stunning. SIS charts all of the Seahawks’ receivers with three drops this year. (That’s fewer than 45 different individual players.) The Broncos have 11 times as many.
One area where the Seahawks have fallen behind their division mates this season is in their offensive line continuity. As Thomas Emerick shows readers in this week’s Offensive Lines and Their Fantasy Impacts article, Seattle is the only NFC West team not to have at least four players returning up front on offense compared to the beginning of last season:
However, the retooling of the Seahawks’ line looks to be the best thing that they could have done after finishing as one of the worst units in the league almost universally last year. In 2025, their pass blocking has gone from a weakness to a strength, while their push in the run game could still use some improvement. Still, the unit is heading in the right direction as a whole if we look at their points earned per play (PE/Play) and points above average per play (PAA/Play) numbers.
SEA O-Line
All BB% (Rank)
Pass BB% (Rank)
Run BB% (Rank)
PE/Play (Rank)
PAA/Play (Rank)
2025
2.72% (11)
2.48% (3)
2.93% (26)
0.17 (t-14)
-0.02 (t-25)
2024
3.22% (28)
3.92% (28)
2.09% (17)
0.12 (t-31)
-0.04 (32)
Lastly, we get to the 9-4 49ers, who are on a bye this week. Depending on how things shake out for the Rams and Seahawks on Sunday, each could either put a nice buffer between themselves and San Francisco or be plunged right smack dab in the middle of a playoff race with a team that has persevered through the worst injury luck in the league and is coming on at just the right time.
Christian McCaffrey has held down the fort the best he can this year, but the returns of Brock Purdy, George Kittle, and Ricky Pearsall over the past month have helped steady the ship. Shawn gave a bit of an overview of where the 49ers currently stand:
Perhaps the most surprising element of 2025 is the rushing rank, where only three teams have been worse than San Francisco (-0.3 WAR) despite the presence of McCaffrey. SIS even gives the 49ers the No. 9 rating in run-blocking points per snap. Of course, McCaffrey has been worth 0.8 WAR as a receiver, easily canceling out the run game demerits.
The 49ers are also one of the toughest teams to evaluate on defense, where they wipe out explosive runs and limit rushing yards over expected but struggle to hold opposing passing offenses in check.
It’s not like Kyle Shanahan and Robert Saleh don’t understand that pass defense is more important, so some of this is undoubtedly tactical as they usher a rebuilt defense into the future. San Francisco is middle of the pack in yards per cover snap allowed even as they rank No. 30 in pressure rate.
Perhaps even more so than the Texans, Colts, or Jaguars in the AFC, we should not be at all surprised if the NFC’s Super Bowl representative emerges out of the West. While teams like the Packers and Eagles could always make a run, there just doesn’t seem to be anyone in the league who will want to come up against the Rams, Seahawks, or 49ers when the playoffs roll around this year.
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Full-time Cat Dad, Sneakerhead, Record Collector, LOTR Fanboy, and Jeopardy Enthusiast. Fantasy football writer and beatmaker in my free time. Follow me on X and Bluesky @thecatdadff
Kevin Szafraniec uses RotoViz’s Advanced Stats Explorer to uncover under-the-radar trends at the wide receiver position from the first 13 weeks of the 2025 NFL season. It’s been a rough season for Terry McLaurin in 2025. After leveraging a huge contract extension by sitting out the majority of training camp, he has only been on the field for five games this season due to a litany…...
Kevin Szafraniec highlights the best players available on waivers in 50% or more of ESPN and Yahoo leagues heading into Week 14. The Texans’ usage of their two rookie wide receivers was maddening to start the year. While Jaylin Noel is still struggling to find the field despite flashing when given opportunities, at least we have seen Jayden Higgins finally assert himself as the team’s…...
Kevin Szafraniec discusses the biggest storylines of Week 13 with the help of RotoViz’s industry-leading suite of tools, most notably the Monday Review Tool. Anyone looking over the NFL’s 11-game slate for Sunday prior to kickoff would have been forgiven for feeling slightly underwhelmed. After being treated to some fireworks on Thursday and Friday, schedule makers must have thought that fans needed a break from…...
Kevin Szafraniec uses RotoViz’s Advanced Stats Explorer to uncover under-the-radar trends at the wide receiver position from the first 13 weeks of the 2025 NFL season. It’s been a rough season for Terry McLaurin in 2025. After leveraging a huge contract extension by sitting out the majority of training camp, he has only been on the field for five games this season due to a litany…...
Kevin Szafraniec highlights the best players available on waivers in 50% or more of ESPN and Yahoo leagues heading into Week 14. The Texans’ usage of their two rookie wide receivers was maddening to start the year. While Jaylin Noel is still struggling to find the field despite flashing when given opportunities, at least we have seen Jayden Higgins finally assert himself as the team’s…...
Kevin Szafraniec discusses the biggest storylines of Week 13 with the help of RotoViz’s industry-leading suite of tools, most notably the Monday Review Tool. Anyone looking over the NFL’s 11-game slate for Sunday prior to kickoff would have been forgiven for feeling slightly underwhelmed. After being treated to some fireworks on Thursday and Friday, schedule makers must have thought that fans needed a break from…...
Strange and the Jaguars have a dogfight with the Colts ahead of them this week. The once all-conquering Colts have been particularly generous towards TEs in recent weeks. They’ve given up seven receptions for 72.4 yards per game over their last five games. They also rank third in the NFL over that span in air yards allowed to TEs. This is another boon to Strange, as he ranks eighth among all TEs with 7.8 air yards per target this season.
