Kevin Szafraniec highlights some of the biggest NFL storylines of the week, as seen through the eyes of RotoViz’s staff and our industry-leading suite of tools.
Things were a bit lighter than normal on the site this week as we entered the fantasy offseason. But that didn’t mean that there was any shortage of amazing data for those of us who live and breathe fantasy football 365 days a year.
One of the biggest highlights of the week was the return of Jesse Cohen after his Dynasty Dealbook series wrapped at the fantasy trade deadline. This week, he reviewed his first year at the site and continued to provide valuable insights into how we should be valuing some of his biggest hits as we head into 2026.
Jesse kicked off his time at RotoViz looking at what he termed “Masked Profiles.” Readers who heeded Jesse’s advice in his debut definitely profited in 2025, which would become a running theme throughout the year:
In my debut article for RotoViz, I leveraged the Advanced Stats Explorer to identify a group of buy-low targets with masked profiles.
That cohort, which had an aggregate -176.1 FPOE in 2024, finished the 2025 fantasy season with an aggregate +91.5 FPOE — led by strong performances from George Pickens (+59.9 FPOE) and Dalton Kincaid (+41.5 FPOE) — for a total swing of +267.6 FPOE or +12.2 FPOE per player. For context, that’s about the same positive FPOE that Tetairoa McMillan (+13.1 FPOE) and Davante Adams (+12.1 FPOE) had this year.
The results look even better if we exclude undraftable players who got swept into the model like Jalen Tolbert (-7.0 FPOE) and Brandin Cooks (-4.4 FPOE). As explained at the time:
The “Masked Profiles” list is not a “breakout score” or a “fantasy hack” — this is still buy-low bin shopping and your discretion is required — but maybe, a helpful nudge in refining mental buckets.
In addition to Pickens and Kincaid, we got a surprising number of useful best ball weeks from model “hits” like Christian Watson (+36 FPOE), Alec Pierce (+29 FPOE), and Tre Tucker (+6.8 FPOE). Other cohort members saw their dynasty value rise despite being model “misses,” like Rome Odunze (-6.5 FPOE), Troy Franklin (-4.8 FPOE) and Adonai Mitchell (-23.6 FPOE).
It could have been a better year — looking at you, Xavier Worthy (-17.1 FPOE) — but overall I’m pleased with the results.
Given the returns that the bulk of these players provided at their 2025 ADPs, we should all be keeping our eyes peeled for the release of Jesse’s Masked Profiles in 2026. Among the late-round picks he highlighted, Watson emerged as the most significant player for fantasy managers down the stretch. In this week’s WR Advanced Stats article, I discussed whether we should expect Watson’s impressive production to carry over into next year:
It is safe to say few people believed that Christian Watson was destined to return in the middle of the 2025 season and produce at a borderline WR1 level. Yet, here we are.
After making his way off of IR in Week 8, Watson has been one of this season’s most welcome surprises. After scoring 11.7 PPR/GM as a rookie, Watson saw his production slip in each of the following two years, bottoming out at a lowly 7.2 PPG in 2024. But in 2025, Watson is up to 13.2 PPR/GM and has become the best version of himself we have seen since he entered the NFL.
Should fantasy managers be expecting Watson’s production to carry over into 2026, or are there still too many confounding variables at play in the Green Bay offense to trust that his 2025 numbers will continue?
Regardless of who is throwing him the ball, Watson has been terrorizing secondaries across the league this season. It was reasonable to dial expectations back for Watson in Week 17 with Malik Willis leading Green Bay’s offense. But most of those concerns were put to rest early in the game, as the two connected on a 39-yard TD on the Packers’ first possession of the game.
Among the wideouts who earned more than three targets in Week 17, only five converted a higher percentage of air yards than Watson did. However, none of those five WRs came anywhere close to Watson’s 15.2 IAY/T.
Watson’s performance against the Ravens marked his fourth WR1 finish in 10 games. Considering his availability for the year was murky at best after suffering a torn ACL in January, what he has accomplished in 2025 has been extremely impressive.
Since returning in Week 8, Watson’s 36.0 FPOE is the fifth-most of any WR. He is also leading the Packers in targets, receptions, receiving yards, receiving TDs, target share, and air yards share in that span.
Watson’s role as a deep threat has always made him a volatile option for fantasy managers. The abundance of mouths to feed in Green Bay’s low-volume passing offense has also generally worked against him. However, Romeo Doubs is a free agent this offseason, potentially vacating 19% of the Packers’ 2025 targets. Since Jordan Love took over as the starter in 2023, he has seen his highest AYA when targeting Tucker Kraft, Jayden Reed, and Watson. If Doubs is indeed out of the picture in 2026, it could lead to good things for all three receivers.
With Matthew Golden coming along slowly and Kraft returning from a torn ACL, it is reasonable to believe that Watson can continue to earn targets at a high clip next year. Watson should also have added incentive to put up a big year in 2026 with his own free agency looming in 2027.
Week 17 WR Advanced Stats: Has Christian Watson Established Himself as Green Bay’s Alpha WR?
As Jesse transitioned to his Dynasty Dealbook series once the season began, he identified more than a few of 2025’s biggest league winners as buy candidates. One such recommendation came in Week 8, as Jesse urged fantasy managers to acquire an underperforming Chase Brown:
Week 8: Double Down on (Chase) Brown
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- Recommendation: Fade the apparent regression from Chase Brown, whose peripherals remained steady.
- Result: Brown averaged over 20fppg from Week 9 onwards.
- Future View: Brown, who seems to be emerging as the next Kyren Williams, should be a value again in 2026.
From the time Jesse recommended pursuing Brown, the Bengals’ star scored as the PPR RB6 over the remainder of the season. Over the final two weeks of the fantasy playoffs, Brown averaged 31.0 PPR points per game, leading many a fantasy team to hoist their league trophy in 2025.
Another player that Jesse was in on early in the year was Luther Burden III. The Bears’ 2025 second-rounder has become every fantasy analyst’s new favorite player following a late-season surge. Burden will surely fetch a hefty return on the dynasty trade market this offseason. Those who were proactive in acquiring Burden back in Week 3 should feel a sense of relief knowing that they were able to jump to the front of the line:
Week 3: Christmas Only Comes Once a Year
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- Recommendation: Trade one RV favorite (R.J. Harvey) for another (Luther Burden).
- Result: Things got a lot better for Harvey, while Burden seemed to stagnate until his Week 17 blowup.
- Future View: Between Burden’s strong finish, Harvey’s flagging peripherals (e.g. a 14% Evasion Rate) and their respective ages, I expect Burden to be the better dynasty asset going into 2026.
Although the payoff wasn’t immediate, no one who rostered Burden will be complaining after the rookie delivered as the overall PPR WR1 in fantasy’s championship week. I detailed Burden’s coming-of-age performance, as well as that of fellow Chicago rookie Colston Loveland, when breaking down Week 17’s heavyweight matchup between the 49ers and Bears in this week’s Monday Review:
It seems like the NFL knew what it was doing when it flexed the Bears-49ers matchup to Sunday night. Barring the outcome of Monday’s game between the Falcons and Rams, this game featured Week 17’s QB1, QB7, RB3, RB7, WR1, TE2, and TE3.
We should have known we were in for a wild one when the Bears defense scored a pick-6 on the first offensive play of the game. But from there, Brock Purdy was nothing short of dominant, throwing three touchdowns and adding another two with his legs on his way to pacing the QB position in fantasy scoring for the week.
Christian McCaffrey also did his part in making sure his fantasy managers bring home some hardware this year, turning a massive 29 opportunities into 181 scrimmage yards and a TD. The resulting 28.1 PPR points were good for third this week among RBs.
Meanwhile, Jake Tonges looked like a star in George Kittle’s absence, converting seven of nine targets for 60 yards and a TD.
But in a game that featured 80 combined points, there was plenty of scoring coming from the other sideline as well.
Despite Caleb Williams still possessing scattershot accuracy, he has slowly been evolving into a more reliable QB as the season has progressed. Additionally, D’Andre Swift continues to be one of the league’s most overlooked RBs. Despite Swift sharing the Chicago backfield with Kyle Monangai, 2025 represents the first time he has eclipsed 200 PPR points in his career. As things currently stand, Swift is the PPR RB15 with one game to go.
For as good as Williams and Swift were in this one, it is difficult not to gush about Chicago’s top two draft picks from this past April. After highlighting the efficiency that Luther Burden III has displayed as a rookie, he returned from a one-week layoff to put up his first overall WR1 finish.
Burden put it all out there in San Francisco, marrying his elite evasion skills with an ability to be used at all levels of the field. The result was his second 100-yard game of the season as he led the Bears in PPR points, receptions, and receiving yards. Unfortunately, the one blemish in his stat line came on a dropped pass on 3rd and 5 with 33 seconds left as the Bears trailed by four points. Although the drop did not prove to be the final dagger for the Bears, it still would have been nice to see Burden continue to come through in the clutch.
And Burden was not the only youngster who emerged for Chicago in primetime. Colston Loveland led the team in targets this week, nearly clearing 100 yards and reaching the end zone once. Currently, the only TE who has scored more PPR points than Loveland this week is McBride.
Despite the 49ers coming out with the win, this game felt like a bit of a changing of the guard in the NFC. Apart from Purdy and Ricky Pearsall, much of the San Francisco offense will be aging out over the next few years. Meanwhile, the Bears’ roster is loaded with young talent and is only starting to scratch the surface of its potential in Ben Johnson’s first season.
Given the current state of the NFC, there is a decent chance we could be gifted with a rematch between these two teams at some point during the postseason.
Week 17 Monday Review: These 3 Games Provided a High Concentration of 2025 League Winners
Lastly, we are going to head all the way back to the beginning. In Week 1, Jesse advised dynasty managers to remain patient before selling preseason hype machine Jacory Croskey-Merritt:
Week 1: Bill’s Not Just the Science Guy
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- Recommendation: Hold out for more than a random second if selling a Jacory Croskey-Merritt share.
- Result: If you sold JCM after his big game against the Chargers, you made out like a bandit. If you waited too long after that, you were probably disappointed given the hype.
- Future View: JCM will finish 2025 around the top of nearly every important statistical category among rookie RBs, despite barely being drafted and the offensive environment crumbling around him.
Fantasy managers who were able to toe the line just right with Croskey-Merritt could have potentially won twice on him in 2025. I had dynasty leagues where Croskey-Merritt was on waivers toward the end of the year. If someone sold high on him early in the year and subsequently picked him back up off of waivers down the line, there is a chance they could have gotten the best the Commanders’ rookie had to offer while also acquiring some additional assets in the interim.
Croskey-Merritt was one of the few highlights from a lackluster Christmas Day slate. For fantasy managers who had the foresight to start him, it may have been one of the highlights of their season. Corbin Young broke down Croskey-Merritt’s big game in this week’s RB Advanced Stats article:
Chris Rodriguez Jr. missed Week 17 with an illness, and Croskey-Merritt was an efficient rusher for the Commanders, rolling with their third-string quarterback. On paper, the Cowboys have been favorable for opposing rushers, allowing the seventh-highest adjusted YBC/Att and the seventh-most fantasy points per game.
Without Rodriguez, Croskey-Merritt handled 64% of the snaps and 69% of the team’s rush attempts, yet had a 0% target share in Week 17. Jeremy McNichols played on 41% of the snaps, with three targets (14%) and one rush attempt (6%). Meanwhile, Josh Johnson and Deebo Samuel each took two rush attempts (12%) in Week 17.
We’ve discussed how Croskey-Merritt or Rodriguez needs to handle over 50% of the rush attempts with some efficiency to be semi-reliable. Otherwise, they eat into each other’s workload, making it a frustrating backfield to predict weekly since they mix in two primary rushers, plus the rushing quarterback.
Croskey-Merritt and Rodriguez have the same YAC/Att (3.3), with Croskey-Merritt having a slightly better evasion rate (23%) in 2025. That’s mainly due to Croskey-Merritt being able to fight for a higher percentage of broken tackles, as seen below. Both have that early-down grinder, with a bruising YAC profile in the running back advanced stats.
Week 17 Running Back Advanced Stats: Breece Hall, Zach Charbonnet, and Audric Estime
Keep in mind, this is by no means a comprehensive list of the hits that Jesse provided for dynasty managers over the course of the season. Considering how strong a debut season he had at RotoViz, we should all be eagerly awaiting what Jesse has in store for an encore in 2026.
