Kevin Szafraniec takes a look at some star NFL wideouts who could be nearing the end of their careers and the young receivers poised to take their places on depth charts and in fantasy lineups. 

There has been a lot of wide receiver talk on RotoViz throughout February as I tied a bow on the 2025 NFL season with a comprehensive breakdown of the receiving metrics available in the Advanced Stats Explorer. In the series, I looked at the best- and worst-performing WRs across 23 metrics that are featured in the tool.

As you may have guessed, many of our favorite young players saw plenty of time in the top-10 lists, while declining veterans often found themselves at the other end of the spectrum. However, the results were not always as cut and dried as we would expect, potentially opening up some buying windows for veterans that the market may be discounting.

Volume 1 of the 2026 RotoViz Rookie Draft Guide is out now! Jam-packed with comprehensive player profiles, advanced stats, player comps, strategies, and rankings from the RotoViz staff, it is a must-have for every fantasy manager who wants to crush their best ball, dynasty, and redraft leagues in 2026!

Keep an eye out for Volume 2, scheduled to release following the NFL Combine, and Volume 3, which will drop after the 2026 NFL Draft!

In Part 1 of the series, which focused on routes and targets, I theorized that routes per target may be one of the final efficiency metrics to fall off for aging superstars. That conclusion was based largely on the idea that many alpha WRs still had the ability to draw targets at a high rate based on their prior production, although their current abilities didn’t always result in them turning their heavy volume into the high-end numbers of their pasts.

Routes Per Target (R/T)

2025 WR Leaders — R/T (Minimum 180 Routes Run)

1. [Puka] Nacua (2.7)
2. [Jaxon] Smith-Njigba (3.0)
3. [Amon-Ra] St. Brown (3.0)
4. [Rashee] Rice (3.2)
5. [Drake] London (3.3)
6. [Ja’Marr] Chase (3.3)
7. Davante Adams (3.4)
8. Mike Evans (3.5)
9. [Chris] Olave (3.6)
10. A.J. Brown (3.7)
11. [Garrett] Wilson (3.7)
12. Keenan Allen (3.7)

• The list above suggests R/T may be the last efficiency metric to go for aging superstars. That is probably too harsh considering Adams and Brown both finished as top-12 WRs in 2025, but the clock is undeniably ticking on their careers. We may be past that point for Evans and Allen. Brown will be 29 at the start of next season and is easily the youngest of the four. A move to a new city could reinvigorate his fantasy value, potentially opening up a selling window in dynasty. If you don’t get out this offseason, it would probably be best to ride him to zero.

2025 WR Advanced Stats Wrap-Up, Part 1: Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba Were in a League of Their Own in 2025

However, after further reflection on the current state of the dynasty market, my recommendation to sell Brown may have been a bit premature. In Jesse Cohen’s first offseason installment of the Dynasty Dealbook, he lays out a compelling case why holding onto Brown makes more sense than shipping the Eagles WR away:

Contrarian Holds

Sometimes the dynasty market outsmarts itself when it comes to selling veterans. As much as the Perpetual Reloading and Permanent Championship Window philosophies encourage us to be ahead that curve, we are also looking to take advantage of market sentiment (or at least, not get swept up in it) when there’s blood in the streets.

The concerns are real with these two studs, but it’s worth asking how aggressively to price them in.

Hold #1: A.J. Brown

Historical example: Keenan Allen 2022-23

Brown was referenced in the inaugural Dealbook as an archetypal sell. Another year of hamstring injuries and middling production later, it was the right call — but has the pendulum now swung too far in the other direction?

Like Keenan Allen after his disappointing 2022 season, Brown may have a few more bangers left in him. While 2025 sometimes felt like a talent-driven drop-off, Brown was quietly good given the context; WR14 in FPOE at +25.5, comparable to his 2023 finish (+32.3 FPOE). As sorry as the Eagles looked to close the year, there’s a real chance the coaching situation and offensive environment improve dramatically in 2026 (as they did coming out of 2023) leaving Brown well-positioned to capitalize.

Even while exercising caution on WRs generally in today’s reEP landscape, Brown is firmly a hold.

You Gotta Know When to Hold ‘Em (and When to Walk Away): The Blood in the Streets Ain’t Mine

Speaking of Allen, his return to Los Angeles and ability to draw targets at a high rate were a big reason Ladd McConkey’s second NFL season was one of the biggest disappointments in fantasy last season. What many people do not know is that McConkey (539 routes) still ran the ninth-most routes of any WR in the league in 2025, with his 107 targets coming in 22nd. Unfortunately, his problems ran deeper than simply having a veteran WR dropped on top of him in the target pecking order. And those problems weren’t entirely of his own making, as I laid out when covering catchable targets in Part 5:

Catchable Target Rate (CT%)

Although it is important that receivers run the correct route to receive a catchable target, it is still best to consider CT% as more of a quarterback stat than a receiver stat. Still, knowing which wideouts are consistently seeing the best (and worst) quality of targets is important to their overall success.

2025 Worst WRs — CT% (Minimum 70 Targets)

1. Xavier Worthy (64%)
2. Darnell Mooney (64%)
3. Elic Ayomanor (67%)
4. Jerry Jeudy (67%)
5. Rome Odunze (69%)
6. DJ Moore (71%)
7. Jordan Addison (71%)
8. Alec Pierce (72%)
9. Ladd McConkey (73%)
10. Nico Collins (73%)

• McConkey’s 9.6 IAY/T is the lowest of the 10 players listed above. His 73% CT% was a massive drop-off from an 87% CT% that tied for fourth among WRs with 70 or more targets in 2024. Aside from McConkey’s low CT%, the rest of his 2025 performance largely aligned with his rookie performance. Hopefully, the healthy returns of Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, plus an upgraded coaching staff, will help Herbert and McConkey rekindle their 2024 magic.

2025 WR Advanced Stats Wrap-Up, Part 5: Xavier Worthy’s Forgettable Second Season Still Offers Hope for a 2026 Breakout

Justin Herbert wasn’t the only quarterback to lower the value of his top wideout last season. Caleb Williams one-upped the Chargers’ QB by handicapping his top two WRs with his inaccuracy:

• Caleb Williams’ accuracy struggles continued in 2025. His top two targets barely cleared the 25th percentile of CT% from the past seven years. Odunze’s 14.1-yard aDOT makes his poor CT% a little more understandable than Moore’s (10.6 IAY/T). Fortunately, a few of Chicago’s other receivers fared better, with lower aDOTs unsurprisingly resulting in better accuracy numbers.

Williams’ inability to deliver quality targets definitely hurt Odunze’s Year 2 production. But he was not the only sophomore receiver to underperform at a deep aDOT. I detailed the 2025 struggles of Odunze and three other second-year wideouts in Part 2 of the series, which covered air yards:

Intended Air Yards Per Target (IAY/T)

2025 WR Leaders – IAY/T (Minimum 70 Targets)

1. Pierce (20.7)
2. Mooney (15.3)
3. [Brian] Thomas [Jr.] (14.7)
4. Marvin Harrison Jr. (14.6)
5. Odunze (14.1)
6. Jordan Addison (14.0)
7. Tee Higgins (13.8)
8. Worthy (13.5)
9. [CeeDee] Lamb (13.4)
10. Parker Washington (13.1)
11. Collins (13.1)

• All four of the second-year wideouts above struggled in 2025. Harrison was the only one to finish with positive fantasy points over expectation (FPOE); none of the other three were able to crack the top 190 at the position. While all four saw an increase in aDOT, the jumps of Worthy (3.9 yards) and Thomas (3.1) were easily the most drastic. Worthy also had to deal with the biggest dropoff in CT% — 64% down from 74%. Meanwhile, Harrison was the only player who saw a substantial increase in CT%, going from 71% up to 77%. Considering the success we saw from Thomas and, to a lesser extent, Worthy in 2024, it would make a lot of sense for their teams to move them back to the lower-aDOT roles they occupied as rookies. As for Harrison and Odunze, we are still waiting to see them string together consistent production, and varying up their usage could be just what they need to realize their full potential.

2025 WR Advanced Stats Wrap-Up, Part 2: Alec Pierce’s Air Yard Profile Opened Eyes in 2025 . . . And an Encore Could be Coming in 2026

The late-season breakout of Luther Burden III also threatens the 2026 ceilings of Moore and Odunze. This could be especially true for the former, who could easily find himself in a new home in 2026 after Burden proved himself more than capable of replacing Moore as the Bears’ featured yards-after-the-catch weapon:

Yards Before Contact Per Reception (YBCON/R)

2025 WR Leaders – YBCON/R (Minimum 29 Targets)

1. [Demario] Douglas (5.5)
2. [Kavontae] Turpin (5.5)
3. [Kalif] Raymond (5.3)
4. [Rashee] Rice (5.0)
5. Burden (4.9)
6. Marvin Mims (4.2)
7. [Deebo] Samuel (4.2)
8. [DK] Metcalf (4.0)
9. [Jameson] Williams (3.9)
10. John Metchie III (3.8)
11. Calvin Ridley (3.8)
12. Emeka Egbuka (3.8)
13. [Greg] Dortch (3.8)

• Burden’s rookie year was the polar opposite of Egbuka’s. Following a slow start, the Bears’ second-rounder turned it on over the back half of 2025. It would appear that Burden has displaced DJ Moore as Chicago’s premier YAC weapon, potentially making the veteran expendable this offseason.

2025 WR Advanced Stats Wrap-Up, Part 3: Rashee Rice’s Ability to Create Before and After Contact Makes Him the NFL’s Premier YAC Weapon

Egbuka’s strong YBCON/R numbers as a rookie were only a small part of an advanced stats profile that was a bit all over the place during his rookie year. If we want to take a positive approach to his rookie season, we can frame it like this:

• Speaking of Egbuka, even though the second half of his rookie season was objectively disappointing, his solid aDOT combined with strong YBCON/R numbers is an encouraging feature of his profile. If Egbuka can get his performances to level out, we could see him turn into a top-15 wideout in Year 2.

Meanwhile, here is a slightly more pessimistic view of his rookie year:

Reception Per Catchable Target Rate (R/CT%)

Since there are multiple instances of players not receiving a catchable target throughout the sample, our 2025 total for the next two metrics will drop by three to 231, while the seven-year sample shrinks from 1,611 down to 1,577.

2025 Worst WRs — R/CT% (Minimum 70 Targets)

1. Emeka Egbuka (66%)
2. Ayomanor (68%)
3. Brian Thomas Jr. (68%)
4. Mooney (70%)
5. Jeudy (70%)
6. Odunze (71%)
7. Davante Adams (71%)
8. Marvin Harrison Jr. (72%)
9. Tetairoa McMillan (72%)
10. Higgins (72%)

• There was no shortage of ink spilled covering Egbuka’s struggles in the WR Advanced Stats articles over the second half of the season. The last occurrence came after Week 14, and while he did show improvement over the final four games of the season, it still was not enough to pull Egbuka out of the cellar. Still, his early-season explosion and a top-24 PPR finish as a rookie do provide reasons for optimism.

Lest we forget, Egbuka was not the only rookie to contribute for the Buccaneers in 2025. Tez Johnson filled in admirably while Evans and Chris Godwin were out of the lineup, proving that his high college evasion numbers could translate to the NFL despite his underwhelming size and straight-line speed. I broke down Johnson’s 2026 outlook in Part 4 of the series while focusing on forced missed tackle rates:

Forced Missed Tackle Rate (FMT%)

2025 WR Leaders – FMT% (Minimum 29 Targets)

1. [Travis] Hunter (32.0%)
2. KaVontae Turpin (23.0%)
3. Zay Flowers (21.0%)
4. Tez Johnson (21.0%)
5. Dortch (21.0%)
6. Dyami Brown (20.0%)
7. Luther Burden III (19.0%)
8. Ridley (18.0%)
9. Matthew Golden (17.0%)
10. Kalif Raymond (17.0%)
11. Malik Nabers (17.0%)
12. Parker Washington (17.0%)

• Three additional rookie WRs [besides Hunter] rank among the NFL’s best at forcing missed tackles. While Burden and Golden both maintained some level of fantasy relevance throughout the season, Johnson feels more like a forgotten man. The seventh-rounder played a pivotal role for Tampa Bay as their WR corps was decimated by injuries in the middle of the year, averaging 11.5 PPR points per game from Week 5 through Week 12. But once Godwin returned to full health, Johnson was relegated to an ancillary role. While I would stop short of predicting that Johnson will emerge for the Buccaneers in 2026, he was surprisingly effective as a rookie despite being one of the smallest WRs in NFL history. If Johnson gets another shot to expand his role in Tampa Bay’s offense, he is a player I would be looking to add to the end of my benches.

2025 WR Advanced Stats Wrap-Up, Part 4: Zay Flowers’ Evasion Rate Headlines an Extremely Impressive (and Undervalued) Analytical Profile

Godwin will certainly be playing ahead of Johnson in 2026. Although the veteran struggled early in the year as he made his way back from injury, Godwin did provide some signal that he was getting back to his former self as the season was nearing a close:

• Prior to Week 13, I highlighted some YAC underachievers in my weekly installment of the WR Advanced Stats article. One player who appeared on the list was Godwin, who was only averaging 3.0 YAC/R up to that point. To be fair, he had only played three games and was coming off a major ankle injury that continued to bother him even after returning to the lineup in Week 4. But Godwin turned things around down the home stretch, averaging 7.1 YAC/R over the final six games of 2025. Assuming Godwin is fully recovered from his dislocated ankle, hopefully 2026 will see him reward the Buccaneers for the three-year, $66.0M contract they gave him last offseason.

Godwin was able to turn things around over the second half of the season to rank 10th in YAC/R among WRs who earned at least 29 targets in 2025. Meanwhile, Evans headed in the opposite direction, ranking dead last in the same cohort. With it being reported that Evans is getting ready to test free agency this offseason, the 32-year-old’s advanced stats lead us to believe that Tampa Bay should be more than willing to let him go:

 2025 Worst WRs – YAC/R (Minimum 29 Targets)

1. Mike Evans (1.3)
2. Adonai Mitchell (1.3)
3. Kayshon Boutte (1.4)
4. Devaughn Vele (1.4)
5. Dyami Brown (1.8)
6. Demarcus Robinson (1.9)
7. Rashod Bateman (2.0)
8. Davante Adams (2.0)
9. Ricky Pearsall (2.2)
10. Xavier Legette (2.2)

• In the cases of Evans and Adams, age likely contributed to their low YAC/R numbers. This past season was easily the worst of Evans’ time in Tampa Bay after multiple injuries caused him to come up short of 1,000 receiving yards for the first time in his 12-year career. Additionally, 2025 was the first time his YAC/R fell under 3.2 yards in the last seven years. Adams’ decline in YAC/R was even more pronounced than Evans’ after he cleared 5.0 YAC/R in four of the past six seasons. A position-leading 14 touchdown receptions helped Adams avoid a third straight season with negative fantasy points over expectation (FPOE). Evans was not so fortunate; he finished 2025 with the fourth-worst FPOE per game of any WR in the league.

Seeing Evans join a new team and enjoy the type of season Adams just had with the Rams has to be considered a top-five percentile outcome for the longtime Buccaneers’ WR1. I broke down Adams’ unreal touchdown efficiency during his age-32 season in the final installment of the 2025 WR Advanced Stats Wrap-Up:

Routes Per Touchdown (R/TD)

Since the final two metrics in the series only include wideouts who have scored touchdowns, our 2025 sample gets cut down to 140, while our entire seven-year sample consists of 963 player seasons.

2025 WR Leaders — R/TD (Minimum 180 Routes Run)

1. Adams (28)
2. Christian Watson (38)
3. Isaac TeSlaa (45)
4. Tee Higgins (45)
5. Nacua (45)
6. Amon-Ra St. Brown (47)
7. Jauan Jennings (48)
8. Smith-Njigba (48)
9. Rashee Rice (50)
10. Drake London (52)

• Surprisingly, Adams’ insane 28 R/TD in his first season with the Rams wasn’t even his best mark of the past seven years. Back in 2020, he put up 24 R/TD in his second-to-last season with the Packers, scoring a career-high 18 TDs in only 14 games. When looking at WRs who have run more than 150 routes in a season since 2019, Adams’ 2020 and 2025 seasons rank 1-2 in R/TD. If we dial things back to look at WRs who ran more than 65 routes in a season over the last seven years, a different wideout from 2025 slots in at No. 2: Tory Horton at 25 R/TD.

2025 WR Advanced Stats Wrap-Up, Part 6: When in Doubt . . . Just Throw the Ball to George Pickens