Kevin Szafraniec uses RotoViz’s Advanced Stats Explorer to uncover under-the-radar trends at the wide receiver position from the first 15 weeks of the 2025 NFL season.
Luther Burden III was something of a polarizing prospect heading into the 2025 NFL Draft. His pedigree and early-career usage at Missouri screamed superstar, while concerns about his attitude and on-field performance during his final year with the Tigers were cause for concern. While the red flags were enough to knock him out of the first round, Burden did not last long into Day 2 before the Bears drafted him with the 39th overall pick.
Landing in a crowded Chicago receiving corps posed more problems for Burden, as he was buried behind incumbent veterans and young prospects with more draft capital. But Burden was able to slowly move his way up the depth chart by delivering on his early opportunities and eventually working his way into the Bears’ WR rotation, with the culmination of his efforts being a 20% target share over the past five games.
Sadly, Burden was forced out against the Browns with an ankle injury and has already been ruled out for Week 16. However, that should not have much bearing on 2026, as he is a player we should be looking to add wherever we can in anticipation of a breakout sophomore campaign.
Before we get into the latest information available in the Advanced Stats Explorer, just a few quick reminders about the article.
- Early in the offseason, I updated my deep dive into the past six years of wide receiver data available in the Advanced Stats Explorer and broke it down into four separate articles: Routes and Targets, Intended Air Yards, Yards After the Catch and Evasion, and Catchable Targets, Drops, First Downs, and Touchdowns.
- When working through the six-year sample, I found that the 90th percentile and above generally included most of the top 24 wide receivers for each metric in any given season. The 75th percentile and above included the top 55 to 60 WRs in any given metric per season. Given that these two cohorts easily fit into a typical 12-team fantasy league, they will be referenced throughout the article.
Our current sample of wide receivers to earn a target in 2025 rose to 222 in Week 15, up from 221 in Week 14.
