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Kevin Szafraniec highlights some of the biggest NFL storylines of the week, as seen through the eyes of RotoViz’s staff and our industry-leading suite of tools.
The steady evolution NFL rookies often experience in their first season has made them a perennial hammer in the fantasy playoffs. While some fantasy managers choose to shy away from first-year players due to the time it can take for their production to ramp up, their late-season surges make rostering them a hack that has been known to consistently bring home titles.
As we head into the fantasy championships this weekend, which rookies could end up playing a pivotal role in the final week of the 2025 fantasy season?
Quarterbacks
Rookie QBs are often a mixed bag. In Week 17, three rookie signal callers could be viable starting options in fantasy lineups given the injury-depleted nature of the position. After Jaxson Dart dealt with a myriad of bumps and bruises this year, he is back healthy and has a prime matchup in Las Vegas on tap for Sunday. Blair Andrews shed some light on his potential in his Week 17 installment of The Wrong Read:
Jaxson Dart (NYG @ LV)
NYG pass offense: No. 26 in EPA per pass (-0.21), No. 21 in yards per play (5.87), No. 7 in time to pressure (2.90).
LV pass defense: No. 26 in EPA per pass allowed (0.11), No. 27 in yards per play allowed (7.06), No. 30 in pressure rate (27%), No. 30 in separation allowed (3.9).
Another meaningless game offers young talent an opportunity to gain more NFL game experience to prepare for future seasons. Whether the Raiders’ defense counts as “NFL game experience” is an open question, however. Only two teams allow more separation for receivers, and only two teams create less pressure with their pass rush. Of course, those are two key areas where New York has struggled, so perhaps a matchup against the NFL’s junior varsity squad is what Dart needs right now.
First-overall pick Cam Ward faces off against second-rounder Tyler Shough in Nashville. If anyone were to suggest at the beginning of the season that one of these two QBs would be a hot waiver-wire commodity late in the year, most would have automatically assumed that they were referring to Ward. But on the contrary, it has been Shough who has been a solid fill-in over the past two months. In the final waiver article of 2025, Shough ended the year on a high note as the top addition at the quarterback position:
Yes, it truly has come to this. Tyler Shough continues to be a very solid fantasy QB and faces the second-best matchup in fantasy’s championship week.
Since Week 10, Shough is averaging 20.0 fantasy points per game, which ranks 11th among QBs over that span. It might not feel great relying on him to bring home your league title, but Shough is surprisingly the steadiest QB option out there.
Unfortunately, it isn’t all positive for New Orleans this week. Thomas Emerick details why Shough could face some added pressure despite his favorable matchup in this week’s Offensive Lines and Their Fantasy Impacts article:
Saints: RG Cesar Ruiz is week-to-week (Practice squad elevation Will Sherman filled in)
Ruiz has been ruled out for Week 17 as well, and Sherman fared okay, but that’s against the Jets. Jeffery Simmons will be a different beast, and we’ll see how much the Titans line him across from Sherman to disrupt the pocket for young Tyler Shough and a reinvigorated Chris Olave.
Although Taysom Hill’s presence may not prove to be as large of a threat to Shough’s production as Ruiz’s absence, it is still notable that Hill saw a decent amount of work last week in his triple-threat role, even notching a TD pass to Olave. Given Hill’s relative success last week, it’s possible that Kellen Moore will unleash Hill again this week. The possibility of another week full of Hill-induced chaos was enough for Neil Dutton to include him as one of this week’s TE streamers:
There is no rhyme or reason behind playing Taysom Hill in your TE spot. The man is a force of nature, whom the Saints use in a variety of weird and wonderful ways. It is hard to assess his value as a matchup-based starter, as most of his production comes from not doing TE things. Like running with or passing the ball. But the Saints, with several injuries to their backfield, made Hill the centerpiece of their attack last week. It went pretty much as well as could be expected, and shattered Hill’s previous fantasy output for the season.
Hill saw six targets and carried the ball 12 times for 42 yards. You are just not going to find any other TEs who see that many opportunities. I’m sorry, but it’s true.
The Titans have, if we look at this somewhat logically, been quite generous towards TEs recently. [George] Kittle and Harold Fannin both notched eight receptions against them before they shut down the Chiefs and Travis Kelce last week. Not sure they had that much to do with it, but still . . .
If you are in dire need and want to embrace chaos, then Hill is the ultimate agent of chaos. But I really hope you don’t need to. [Brenton] Strange would be my preferred play.
It isn’t all sunshine and rainbows for rookie QBs, as many are known to get beat up by NFL defenses. This makes them a tantalizing target for fantasy managers who are streaming their D/STs throughout the season. This week, three of the four streaming options in Ross Durham’s D/ST streamers article are going up against rookie signal callers, with the top streamer of the week having Brady Cook squarely in their crosshairs:
New England Patriots (vs. Jets): Available in 28.5% of ESPN Leagues/$3900 on DraftKings
Brady Cook was made in a lab for D/ST streamers. In three games, he’s thrown six interceptions against one touchdown. He’s been sacked an alarming 17 times, including eight against the Saints last week. He’s allowed over half of his pressures to turn into sacks, putting the onus of responsibility squarely on his shoulders. He has a 51.7 passer rating and managed just six points last week. Since Cook took over starting duties for the Jets, opposing D/STs have averaged 15.7PPG, the most in that span by a healthy margin. He’s looking at a nightmare game script against the juggernaut Patriots this weekend, and the more he throws, the better for D/ST streamers. The Patriots’ defense won’t be on the majority of waiver wires, but they should be your first target in every league where no one planned ahead.
Although Chris Oladokun isn’t technically a rookie, he might as well be. On Christmas, the Broncos defense held Kansas City to 139 total yards on 42 plays. While Denver only tallied one sack and no turnovers in the game, perhaps if the Chiefs were able to sustain longer drives, then maybe the Broncos D/ST would have been able to stack up more fantasy points. In this week’s Banana Stand, Shawn Siegele outlined why Kansas City was likely doomed from the rip as he previewed the Christmas Day slate:
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs
It’s unseasonably warm in K.C. this week, which should make it even easier for Denver to put a similar beating on the Chiefs to the one they delivered in Week 18 a year ago. This year players like Patrick Mahomes and Trent McDuffie will be out due to injuries, while Rashee Rice remains in the concussion protocol and could join them.
Chris Oladokun dropped back 22 times after Gardner Minshew was knocked from the game, completing 11 passes for 111 yards, which was actually something of an accomplishment given his 64 air yards on 16 attempts. He took four sacks against the Titans and is not a viable NFL quarterback. In Oladokun’s defense, this is hardly a real NFL offense at this juncture. Isiah Pacheco, who has performed at below practice-squad level in three of his four NFL seasons, earned 15 opportunities in Week 16. Kareem Hunt, Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, and Travis Kelce combined for 13.
The Chiefs might actually be tanking harder than the Dolphins and Jets. It’s an embarrassing end to their dynasty.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt has already made his mark in Week 17, capitalizing on Chris Rodriguez’s absence to amass 105 yards and two touchdowns against the Cowboys on Christmas. Although Croskey-Merritt’s rookie year had its ups and downs, he ended the season on a high note. His 22.5 PPR points were his second-best scoring output of the year. With that in mind, it will be intriguing to see where his ADP lands when best ball contests open up in January.
Croskey-Merritt is not the only first-year RB to have experienced a turbulent rookie season. Ashton Jeanty offered better production than Croskey-Merritt, but at a significantly inflated price tag. But when things appeared to be at their lowest, Jeanty delivered against the league’s top defense. I detailed his big day in Houston in this week’s Monday Review:
One week after a Kenny Pickett-led attack was shut down entirely in Philadelphia, there was not much hope that the Raiders would be able to get anything going against the top-ranked (fourth against the pass, fifth against the run) Houston defense in Week 16. While the return of Geno Smith did offer a bit of an upgrade over Pickett, things still looked pretty bleak for the Las Vegas offense.
Throughout all of the Raiders’ offensive ineptitude this year, the one constant has been Ashton Jeanty. While there were doubts about the extent to which Jeanty’s environment could support him, it was still reasonable to project him for one of the biggest workloads in the league as a rookie.
Jeanty’s 37% share of his team opportunities was tied for fifth among RBs heading into Week 16, while his 263 total opportunities ranked ninth. Unfortunately, his raw numbers haven’t been able to match his workload, as Jeanty finished as an RB3 or worse in 43% of his games while facing the sixth-worst schedule for RBs.
But it is fair to question how much of the blame Jeanty deserves for his inefficiency, as he had been hit at the line on 54% of his 200 carries, which is the highest mark in the league among RBs who have earned more than 60 carries.
Yet it has not all been bad; there are some positives to note as well. Jeanty continued his college tradition of evading tackles at a high rate, with his 22% evasion rate coming in behind only Bijan Robinson (28%) and Jahmyr Gibbs (26%) among RBs who have earned more than 81 carries. Additionally, Jeanty’s 15% target share tied for sixth at the position and came attached to an impressive 39% evasion rate and 3.5 yards after contact per reception.
Jeanty’s day against the Texans started out as expected; he ran hard only to put up a mediocre 15-51-0 rushing line going into halftime. However, the second half was a different story, as he made defenders look silly on two game-breaking plays.
On the first play, the Texans’ coverage lost Jeanty as he leaked out of the backfield, and Smith hit him deep down the sideline. After shrugging off one tackle, Jeanty found himself in the end zone with a 60-yard score, and the Raiders found themselves with a 14-13 lead. Jeanty’s second big play came in the fourth quarter with the Raiders down 23-14, as he ran through tacklers and then pulled away from the defense in a run that was reminiscent of his time at Boise State.
Although the Raiders would ultimately lose the game, Jeanty’s performance has to be considered a giant win for his fantasy outlook moving forward. Because his return on investment from the 1-2 turn this year was so poor, many fantasy managers likely did not profit from Jeanty’s monster game. But for those who did, an enticing matchup against the Giants awaits in fantasy championships.
Fantasy managers have also experienced a roller coaster of emotions while rostering TreVeyon Henderson this year. Just when it seemed like he was about to become a playoff league winner, Henderson suffered a concussion in Week 15 that sabotaged quarterfinal lineups and made him unavailable for the semis. But fantasy managers who have been able to weather the storm could be in for a huge return from Henderson in the finals. Corbin Young broke down the Week 17 outlook for the Patriots’ backfield in his RB Advanced Stats article:
Running Back Advanced Stats: Best Week 17 Matchups
The Patriots, Eagles, Steelers, Vikings, and Raiders have the five best matchups for running backs, according to the Strength of Schedule Streaming App. TreVeyon Henderson logged a full practice after dealing with a concussion. If Henderson is active, it’s hard to face him against a Jets’ run defense that ranks 28th in adjusted YBC/Att and the third-most fantasy points per game in Weeks 10-16.
If Henderson misses, Rhamondre Stevenson should be a borderline RB2. Meanwhile, the Steelers’ running backs face a Browns’ run defense, which allows the 25th-highest adjusted YBC/Att and the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the running back position.
Additionally, there could also be a couple of RB deep dives who could play a role in determining fantasy championships. UDFAs Raheim Sanders and Corey Kiner are both set to contribute this week, marking their first appearance in the waivers column this season:
Boy, have I been waiting for this one.
Quinshon Judkins is done for the year after dislocating his ankle. Jerome Ford is on injured reserve. Dylan Sampson has missed the previous two games with hand and calf injuries.
Is it just me, or is there a runway clearing for Raheim Sanders to be fantasy relevant this week?
My unrequited love for Sanders this offseason may finally bear some fruit. While it is true that Sampson may return, I still want to believe that Sanders could impress in a 50/50 split. Of the two rookies, Sanders is built to be more of a workhorse at 6 feet tall and 217 pounds. Once again, here is Shawn’s write-up from this year’s Rookie Draft Guide:
Sanders received an ATH designation and slipped inside the top 300 recruits of the 2021 cycle before signing with Arkansas. He immediately made his presence felt with 687 scrimmage yards and six total TDs as a freshman.
Sanders’ best season came in a breakout sophomore campaign that featured 1,714 yards from scrimmage in 13 games. He was extremely successful before contact that season (3.4) but also put up impressive after-contact yardage (3.1) on the back of a solid 25% evasion rate. Of his 56 tackles evaded, 32 were of the broken tackle variety. He also flashed in the passing game, generating 33 targets on 159 routes and averaging 1.7 YPRR. Unfortunately, injuries torpedoed his final season at Arkansas — he played in six games before transferring to South Carolina.
Sanders’ final season didn’t include the same rushing volume or pre-contact yardage efficiency, but he maintained the other peripherals. He managed 2.9 YAC/A on an evasion rate that dipped just slightly to 22.4%. He was hit at the line more often, but his EPA/A replicated the 2022 season almost exactly and his boom percentage rose to 12%. Sanders matched his 2022 receiving output as well. He drew 30 targets on 178 routes and again posted 1.7 YPRR. He was second in the nation with 20 evaded tackles as a receiver.
Thomas Emerick detailed the struggles of the Browns’ offensive line heading into their matchup with the Bills, and things may not be getting any better this week. Still, a Sanders spike week may just be the best gift I could hope for this holiday season.
With Bam Knight done for the year, the Cardinals coaching staff said, “I’ll raise you a Corey Kiner.”
All three Cardinals backs were effective against the Falcons, making things a bit of a mess when projecting who to target for Week 17. The right answer might actually be “none of them.” But if forced to choose, I would have to lean Michael Carter due to his well-rounded skill set, then the rookie Kiner, assuming he fills Knight’s vacated role.
For those unfamiliar with Kiner’s game, here is what Shawn Siegele wrote about him in this year’s Rookie Draft Guide:
The four-star prospect signed with LSU ahead of the 2021 season. He transferred to Cincinnati after his rookie year, and eventually emerged with the Bearcats.
Kiner averaged 3.5 YAC/A or more in each of his final two seasons and broke 46 tackles as a senior. Over the last two years, Kiner and Jeanty are the only backs to carry 200 times with an evasion rate of at least 30%. Kiner, Judkins (2023) and Skattebo (2024) are the only Power conference backs with at least 45 broken tackles.
Kiner failed to average a reception per game in college but managed to evade eight tackles on a meager 15 catches last season and hauled in all 28 catchable targets across the 2023 and 2024 campaigns.
Wide Receivers
We have a new PPR king of the 2025 WR class, and his name is Tetairoa McMillan. In this week’s WR Advanced Stats article, I outlined McMillan’s rookie year and put it up against the vaunted rookie class of 2024:
Following a strong 19.3-point performance against the Buccaneers in the fantasy semifinals, Tetairoa McMillan now finds himself on the cusp of being a top-12 fantasy WR as his rookie year nears its conclusion.
It is also somewhat ironic that McMillan claimed the lead in fantasy scoring among rookie WRs away from Emeka Egbuka while playing against Tampa Bay, as the players have seemed to swap trajectories over the course of 2025.
Although Egbuka still has a chance to reclaim the PPR crown among this year’s crop of rookie pass catchers, his recent decline in production now has the edge firmly in McMillan’s corner.
McMillan’s PPR WR14 performance in Week 16 was fueled by his fourth double-digit target game of the season. His 10 targets tied for the seventh most on the week, moving him up to 13th in total targets for the year. Among rookies, McMillan’s 112 targets trail only Egbuka’s 122, with Elic Ayomanor’s 72 targets coming in a distant third.
When looking at all WR seasons since 2019, McMillan already sits right at the 90th percentile in targets, while his routes per target and yards per route run numbers both easily clear the 75th percentile. However, McMillan’s catchable target rate falls below the 75th percentile, and he isn’t making things any better with a 71% reception per catchable target rate that falls below the 25th percentile.
Even though the quality of McMillan’s targets has been getting better as of late, he appears to be having even more difficulty bringing them in now than he did at the beginning of the year. But after McMillan had an on-target catch rate of around 90.0% in each of his final two seasons at Arizona, we should expect to see some positive regression as he grows more accustomed to the NFL over the next couple of years.
Although seeing McMillan hitched to Bryce Young early in his career may not be ideal, the rookie has done enough this year for us to believe that he can remain the Panthers’ top target for the next few seasons, at minimum. It is reasonable to believe that he will clean up some of the mistakes that have bogged down his stat lines during his debut NFL season, which could be a scary thought for secondaries, as McMillan is already knocking on the door of being a fantasy WR1.
Obviously, McMillan is not the only rookie wideout who has the potential to make a significant impact this week. Jayden Higgins, Luther Burden III, Chimere Dike, and Elic Ayomanor have all been staples of my waivers article this year. And recently, Tre’ Harris, Isaac TeSlaa, and Pat Bryant have been garnering some attention as well. We already know that Bryant was a scratch against the Chiefs, but TeSlaa delivered a usable game for fantasy managers with a 3-49-1 line against the Vikings. I wouldn’t be surprised if one or two of the remaining five players made a significant impact in Week 17.
Tight Ends
At the beginning of the year, Tyler Warren was the rookie TE who was setting the NFL on fire. But recently, Harold Fannin Jr. has been the first-year TE who has been turning heads. Although it may fly under the radar, Fannin’s overall TE2 performance in Week 16 not only made him this year’s top rookie TE, but it also elevated him to TE5 for the season.
Fantasy managers surely won’t be complaining about having to slot Warren into lineups this week. Still, it is difficult to imagine anyone who has been paying attention preferring him over Fannin, who comes in as the TE3 in this week’s rankings, and Blair goes on to explain why:
Harold Fannin (CLE @ PIT)
CLE pass offense: No. 3 in time to throw (3.14), No. 28 in yards per play (5.07), No. 31 in EPA per pass (-0.40).
PIT pass defense: No. 28 in YACOE allowed (20.9), No. 31 in pressure rate (26.5%).
Fannin is listed as questionable but says he “should be good” to play against Pittsburgh in Week 17. Pittsburgh needs just a single victory to win the division (though any Baltimore loss would get the Steelers in regardless, and the two teams play each other in Week 18), so Cleveland can’t quite play spoiler in this divisional matchup, though they can make things difficult. The Browns haven’t exactly been a good passing team, but the Steelers are beatable through the air. They don’t generate much pressure, and they give up a lot after the catch. Fannin, meanwhile, has emerged as Shedeur Sanders’ favorite target (though that’s maybe not saying much).
Since Sanders became the starter in Week 12, Fannin has gained 279 yards on 42 targets, with three touchdowns. He’s been a TE1 in each of the last four weeks.
David Njoku has already been ruled out for Week 17, meaning Fannin should be on the field a lot and will continue to draw a lot of looks from Sanders.
In addition to Fannin and Warren, there are cases to be made for starting other rookie TEs like Colston Loveland, Oronde Gadsden II, or even Gunnar Helm this week. Still, none are going to provide the sheer upside of Fannin, who has not just been great for a rookie TE; he has been a great fantasy TE, period.
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Full-time Cat Dad, Sneakerhead, Record Collector, LOTR Fanboy, and Jeopardy Enthusiast. Fantasy football writer and beatmaker in my free time. Follow me on X and Bluesky @thecatdadff
Kevin Szafraniec utilizes RotoViz’s Advanced Stats Explorer to uncover hidden trends at the wide receiver position from the first 16 weeks of the 2025 NFL season. Following a strong 19.3-point performance against the Buccaneers in the fantasy semifinals, Tetairoa McMillan now finds himself on the cusp of being a top-12 fantasy WR as his rookie year nears its conclusion. It is also somewhat ironic that McMillan…...
Kevin Szafraniec highlights the best players available on waivers in 50% or more of ESPN and Yahoo leagues heading into Week 17. If you are reading this, congratulations, you still have something to play for. As always, I am truly grateful for the RotoViz community and want to thank everyone for following along this year. This will be the final waivers column of the season,…...
Kevin Szafraniec discusses the biggest storylines of Week 16 with the help of RotoViz’s industry-leading suite of tools, most notably the Monday Review Tool. Epic divisional showdowns between the Rams and Seahawks on Thursday and then the Packers and Bears on Saturday set the stage for an action-packed semifinals weekend in the 2025 fantasy playoffs. The thrills continued into Sunday, as some of the league’s…...
Kevin Szafraniec utilizes RotoViz’s Advanced Stats Explorer to uncover hidden trends at the wide receiver position from the first 16 weeks of the 2025 NFL season. Following a strong 19.3-point performance against the Buccaneers in the fantasy semifinals, Tetairoa McMillan now finds himself on the cusp of being a top-12 fantasy WR as his rookie year nears its conclusion. It is also somewhat ironic that McMillan…...
Kevin Szafraniec highlights the best players available on waivers in 50% or more of ESPN and Yahoo leagues heading into Week 17. If you are reading this, congratulations, you still have something to play for. As always, I am truly grateful for the RotoViz community and want to thank everyone for following along this year. This will be the final waivers column of the season,…...
Kevin Szafraniec discusses the biggest storylines of Week 16 with the help of RotoViz’s industry-leading suite of tools, most notably the Monday Review Tool. Epic divisional showdowns between the Rams and Seahawks on Thursday and then the Packers and Bears on Saturday set the stage for an action-packed semifinals weekend in the 2025 fantasy playoffs. The thrills continued into Sunday, as some of the league’s…...
