In this article, Jesse Cohen shares his dirty secret and sees if it survives the analytical sunlight.
In the Analytics Wars, There’s Safety in Numbers
The divide between film- and analytics-based prospecting has been narrowing, but remains an essential part of our dynasty DNA:
Years ago it was fashionable to argue about whether NFL prospect scouting should rely on film-based evaluation, or on the analytics and “box score scouting.” If the “analytics wars” don’t seem as contentious now, it’s mainly because most people are tired of arguing. But it’s also because those who championed film-based scouting have in many ways come to see the value of the advanced analytical data. It’s possible that these concessions will encourage the analytics side to subsequently lend more weight to scouting opinions that clash with the numbers.
Trusting the objective numbers — in particular, age-adjusted production — is foundational to the humility-based approach that helps RotoViz subscribers craft squads with ultimate flexibility and value. A strong highlight package helps, but we aren’t grinding film.
My Dirty Secret
All that said . . . and please don’t tell anyone . . . I also like to look at Lance Zierlein’s prospect profiles on NFL.com. He’s as smart as any scout we have access to, and his grades follow a technical and consistent rubric. It’s a fun read.
But are his grades incrementally helpful for projecting fantasy success — such that we ought to lend some weight where they clash with the analytics? That’s what I set out to find out.
