Josh Hermsmeyer

Air yards, Numbers Game, and predictive modeling.

Author Archive

In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

Week 1 Buy and Sell – It’s Never Too Early

Each week this season I’ll be profiling three players to target in your leagues and three to fade. I’ll use the Buy Low Machine, betting totals and some common sense to help you squeeze out an edge on your league mates. So pull up your waiver wire and trade screens on a separate browser tab, and let’s get started…....

jordan matthews 2017

The Sam Bradford Trade is Bad News For All Involved

Sometimes your first reaction to a new piece of information is the most correct. I doubt there are many fantasy footballers that heard the news that Sam Bradford had been traded from Philadelphia to Minnesota for a first round pick1 and immediately declared either team obviously better. The truth is, this trade is unquestionably bad short-term news for both the Eagles and the Vikings. In turn it is bad news for their number one wide receivers, Stefon Diggs and Jordan Matthews. and a contingent fourth  (back) and a contingent fourth…...

Using Air Yards to Better Predict Receiving Yards

The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing fantasy footballers that efficiency is useful. Unless you are talking about quarterbacks, I can’t really think of a good efficiency metric. When you test them to see if they predict anything, you always find that they come crashing back to the mean the next season like a garbage meteorite. But maybe that is about to change…....

Josh Hermsmeyer’s 10 Bold Predictions

The RotoViz writers will be publishing a series of articles where we speculate on the potential outcomes that aren’t likely, but have just a whiff of plausibility to them. They’re not so crazy we can’t imagine them, they’re not so likely that we expect them to happen…....

Why Zero RB Works: Quantifying Positional Injury Rates

Training camp is finally here. In a few weeks we’ll even have actual football. I’m pretty damn excited. Yet alongside all the noise and activity that accompanies this time of year there’s also a wretched, unshakable sense of impending doom…....

Is David Johnson’s Second Half Performance a Mirage?

I’ll come right out and admit that I prefer the second half of nearly everything to the first. From movies to sporting events to sex, the second half just completely dominates the first. It’s almost a universal constant for me. Is the same true for running backs?…...

Fade Good Players, Buy The Bad

A recent article by Fantasy Douche and another by Shawn Siegele got me thinking about quality. Pondering quality is actually rather dangerous. On the one hand it can cause you to become enlightened, and on the other it can drive you batshit crazy. It can even do both at the same time…....

This First Round Running Back’s Profile is Terrifying

David Johnson terrifies me. Worse than Brexit or the Babadook. Worse than Carrot Top in a clown suit. Johnson embodies all that is sullied and unholy about player projections, and I would rather smash my junk in a waffle iron than draft him at his current overall ADP…....

Week 1 Buy and Sell – It’s Never Too Early

Each week this season I’ll be profiling three players to target in your leagues and three to fade. I’ll use the Buy Low Machine, betting totals and some common sense to help you squeeze out an edge on your league mates. So pull up your waiver wire and trade screens on a separate browser tab, and let’s get started…....

jordan matthews 2017

The Sam Bradford Trade is Bad News For All Involved

Sometimes your first reaction to a new piece of information is the most correct. I doubt there are many fantasy footballers that heard the news that Sam Bradford had been traded from Philadelphia to Minnesota for a first round pick1 and immediately declared either team obviously better. The truth is, this trade is unquestionably bad short-term news for both the Eagles and the Vikings. In turn it is bad news for their number one wide receivers, Stefon Diggs and Jordan Matthews. and a contingent fourth  (back) and a contingent fourth…...

Using Air Yards to Better Predict Receiving Yards

The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing fantasy footballers that efficiency is useful. Unless you are talking about quarterbacks, I can’t really think of a good efficiency metric. When you test them to see if they predict anything, you always find that they come crashing back to the mean the next season like a garbage meteorite. But maybe that is about to change…....

Josh Hermsmeyer’s 10 Bold Predictions

The RotoViz writers will be publishing a series of articles where we speculate on the potential outcomes that aren’t likely, but have just a whiff of plausibility to them. They’re not so crazy we can’t imagine them, they’re not so likely that we expect them to happen…....

Why Zero RB Works: Quantifying Positional Injury Rates

Training camp is finally here. In a few weeks we’ll even have actual football. I’m pretty damn excited. Yet alongside all the noise and activity that accompanies this time of year there’s also a wretched, unshakable sense of impending doom…....

Is David Johnson’s Second Half Performance a Mirage?

I’ll come right out and admit that I prefer the second half of nearly everything to the first. From movies to sporting events to sex, the second half just completely dominates the first. It’s almost a universal constant for me. Is the same true for running backs?…...

Fade Good Players, Buy The Bad

A recent article by Fantasy Douche and another by Shawn Siegele got me thinking about quality. Pondering quality is actually rather dangerous. On the one hand it can cause you to become enlightened, and on the other it can drive you batshit crazy. It can even do both at the same time…....

This First Round Running Back’s Profile is Terrifying

David Johnson terrifies me. Worse than Brexit or the Babadook. Worse than Carrot Top in a clown suit. Johnson embodies all that is sullied and unholy about player projections, and I would rather smash my junk in a waffle iron than draft him at his current overall ADP…....

Week 1 Buy and Sell – It’s Never Too Early

Each week this season I’ll be profiling three players to target in your leagues and three to fade. I’ll use the Buy Low Machine, betting totals and some common sense to help you squeeze out an edge on your league mates. So pull up your waiver wire and trade screens…...

jordan matthews 2017

The Sam Bradford Trade is Bad News For All Involved

Sometimes your first reaction to a new piece of information is the most correct. I doubt there are many fantasy footballers that heard the news that Sam Bradford had been traded from Philadelphia to Minnesota for a first round pick1 and immediately declared either team obviously better. The truth is, this trade is…...

Using Air Yards to Better Predict Receiving Yards

The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing fantasy footballers that efficiency is useful. Unless you are talking about quarterbacks, I can’t really think of a good efficiency metric. When you test them to see if they predict anything, you always find that they come crashing back to the…...

Josh Hermsmeyer’s 10 Bold Predictions

The RotoViz writers will be publishing a series of articles where we speculate on the potential outcomes that aren’t likely, but have just a whiff of plausibility to them. They’re not so crazy we can’t imagine them, they’re not so likely that we expect them to happen…....

Why Zero RB Works: Quantifying Positional Injury Rates

Training camp is finally here. In a few weeks we’ll even have actual football. I’m pretty damn excited. Yet alongside all the noise and activity that accompanies this time of year there’s also a wretched, unshakable sense of impending doom…....

Is David Johnson’s Second Half Performance a Mirage?

I’ll come right out and admit that I prefer the second half of nearly everything to the first. From movies to sporting events to sex, the second half just completely dominates the first. It’s almost a universal constant for me. Is the same true for running backs?…...

Fade Good Players, Buy The Bad

A recent article by Fantasy Douche and another by Shawn Siegele got me thinking about quality. Pondering quality is actually rather dangerous. On the one hand it can cause you to become enlightened, and on the other it can drive you batshit crazy. It can even do both at the same time…....

This First Round Running Back’s Profile is Terrifying

David Johnson terrifies me. Worse than Brexit or the Babadook. Worse than Carrot Top in a clown suit. Johnson embodies all that is sullied and unholy about player projections, and I would rather smash my junk in a waffle iron than draft him at his current overall ADP…....

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