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In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

Tony Pollard Isn’t All Hype – Why I’m Continuing to Buy This Season’s James Conner Even as His ADP Explodes

Exactly one week ago, I highlighted Tony Pollard as the Cowboys RB to target in redraft if Ezekiel Elliott‘s holdout continues. Not only that, but I also emphasized that Pollard likely has standalone value even if/when Elliott returns to the team. The Pollard Hype Train Has Officially Left the Station As of August 7 — when that article was published — Pollard’s ADP sat around 200 overall. But, since then, his ADP has sky-rocketed to around 150. He now reports an even lower ADP than Darwin Thompson, who burst into public consciousness with his impressive performance in the Chiefs’ opening preseason game. 🗣 Touchdown…...

Zero RB Shangri La: How Season-Long Game Script Affects Running Back Production, Part 5

Welcome back to my NFL Game Script series, where I examine how game script affects running back fantasy production in season-long redraft and best ball formats. In Part 1, I broke up our running back sample into quartiles based on their teams’ preseason Vegas Win Totals: Quartile 1 is composed of players from teams with a Vegas Win Total of 9.5 or higher. Quartile 2 is 8.5 to 9.0; Quartile 3 is 7.5 to 8.0; and Quartile 4 is 7.0 and lower. In this final installment, I’ll be examining players from Quartile 4, the quartile typically composed of the league’s…...

Christian McCaffrey Is the 1.01, Plus a Key Zero-RB Target: How Season-Long Game Script Affects Running Back Production, Part 4

Welcome back to my NFL Game Script series, where I examine how game script affects running back fantasy production in season-long redraft and best ball formats. In Part 1, I broke up our running back sample into quartiles based on their teams’ preseason Vegas Win Totals: Quartile 1 is composed of players from teams with a Vegas Win Total of 9.5 or higher. Quartile 2 is 8.5 to 9.0; Quartile 3 is 7.5 to 8.0; and Quartile 4 is 7.0 and lower. In this installment, I’ll be examining players from Quartile 3 — the group of players for which game…...

A Minefield of Downside Risk: How Season-Long Game Script Affects Running Back Production, Part 3

Welcome back to my NFL Game Script series, where I examine how game script affects running back fantasy production in season-long redraft and best ball formats. In Part 1, I broke up our running back sample into quartiles based on their teams’ preseason Vegas Win Totals: Quartile 1 is composed of players from teams with a Vegas Win Total of 9.5 or higher. Quartile 2 is 8.5 to 9.0; Quartile 3 is 7.5 to 8.0; and Quartile 4 is 7.0 and lower. In this installment, I’ll be examining players from Quartile 2 — the group of players for which game…...

What If Zeke’s Holdout Continues? The Cowboys Running Back to Target Late in Redraft

Ezekiel Elliott officially began his contract holdout on July 26. Since that point, fantasy enthusiasts have held their breath hoping for a swift resolution for the consensus top-four fantasy running back. Instead, drafters have had to endure a volley of public posturing that has cultivated some unease in the fantasy-verse. How Long is Elliott Willing to Sit Out? Jerry Jones was the first party to address the matter publicly in an interview with CBS 11 Sports in late July: “The point there is, you don’t have to have a rushing champion to win a Super Bowl […] Emmitt [Smith] was…...

Austin Ekeler is Alvin Kamara-in-Waiting: How Season-Long Game Script Affects Running Back Production, Part 2

Welcome back to my NFL Game Script series, where I examine how game script affects running back fantasy production in season-long redraft and best ball formats. In Part 1 of this series, I examined game script from a bird’s eye view. Let’s recap some of the important findings from Part 1: Game condition (leading vs. trailing) has a significant effect on league-wide pass-rates. On average, teams pass about 17% more often when trailing than when they play with a lead. Preseason Vegas win totals produce significant correlations with regular season pass and rush totals, which confirms their predictive reliability in…...

How Game Script Affects Running Backs in Redraft and Best Ball Formats

Game script: A concept easy to understand in the abstract but difficult to distill into quantifiable data. Those of us who play DFS understand game script through experience. A team gets down two scores early and begins to take more risks in the passing game. At the same time, the team with the lead begins to run the ball conservatively to burn time and keep the opposing offense off the field. Next thing you know, the winning team’s running back racks up 123 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries. Meanwhile, the losing team’s running back only manages 42 yards…...

To Zero-RB or Not To Be: Redraft Strategy for the Passing Revolution, Part 8

Welcome to my NFL Passing Revolution series, where I examine how the NFL’s shift towards efficient pass-heavy offenses has affected the landscape of fantasy football. We’ve now arrived at the final installment of this series; and for my final entry in this epic, I’m going to shift gears a bit. For seven straight articles, I’ve analyzed the NFL and fantasy football with a global lens. Now, it’s finally time to focus-in on 2019 redraft strategy. Using my findings from each of my previous pieces, I’ll guide you through the early rounds in a 12-team, snake-style draft. I don’t pretend to…...

Wide Receiver Is the New Running Back: Redraft Strategy for the Passing Revolution, Part 7

Welcome to my NFL Passing Revolution series, where I examine how the NFL’s shift towards efficient pass-heavy offenses has affected the landscape of fantasy football. In Part 6, I looked at some holistic trends for the wide receiver position. Ironically, the passing revolution seems to have had a negative overall effect on wide receivers’ efficiency due to the swelling number of receivers deployed across the league. However, this decline in efficiency also makes high-target volume WR1s more valuable than they’ve ever been. Still, the data from Part 6 is rather noisy. Global WR data is rife with volatility from season…...

You Must Choose a Side in the WR1 Debate: Redraft Strategy for the Passing Revolution, Part 6

Welcome to my NFL Passing Revolution series, where I examine how the NFL’s shift towards efficient pass-heavy offenses has affected the landscape of fantasy football. In Parts 2-4, I covered the running back position in detail. Then, in Part 5, I addressed the tight end position. In each of my preceding articles, I’ve emphasized the importance of targeting elite pass-catching RB1s and elite tight ends early in the draft. But, if we prioritize RB and TE, how does that affect wide receiver strategy, exactly? In this article and in Part 7, I’ll break down historical trends to examine how and when…...

Tony Pollard Isn’t All Hype – Why I’m Continuing to Buy This Season’s James Conner Even as His ADP Explodes

Exactly one week ago, I highlighted Tony Pollard as the Cowboys RB to target in redraft if Ezekiel Elliott‘s holdout continues. Not only that, but I also emphasized that Pollard likely has standalone value even if/when Elliott returns to the team. The Pollard Hype Train Has Officially Left the Station As of August 7 — when that article was published — Pollard’s ADP sat around 200 overall. But, since then, his ADP has sky-rocketed to around 150. He now reports an even lower ADP than Darwin Thompson, who burst into public consciousness with his impressive performance in the Chiefs’ opening preseason game. 🗣 Touchdown…...

Zero RB Shangri La: How Season-Long Game Script Affects Running Back Production, Part 5

Welcome back to my NFL Game Script series, where I examine how game script affects running back fantasy production in season-long redraft and best ball formats. In Part 1, I broke up our running back sample into quartiles based on their teams’ preseason Vegas Win Totals: Quartile 1 is composed of players from teams with a Vegas Win Total of 9.5 or higher. Quartile 2 is 8.5 to 9.0; Quartile 3 is 7.5 to 8.0; and Quartile 4 is 7.0 and lower. In this final installment, I’ll be examining players from Quartile 4, the quartile typically composed of the league’s…...

Christian McCaffrey Is the 1.01, Plus a Key Zero-RB Target: How Season-Long Game Script Affects Running Back Production, Part 4

Welcome back to my NFL Game Script series, where I examine how game script affects running back fantasy production in season-long redraft and best ball formats. In Part 1, I broke up our running back sample into quartiles based on their teams’ preseason Vegas Win Totals: Quartile 1 is composed of players from teams with a Vegas Win Total of 9.5 or higher. Quartile 2 is 8.5 to 9.0; Quartile 3 is 7.5 to 8.0; and Quartile 4 is 7.0 and lower. In this installment, I’ll be examining players from Quartile 3 — the group of players for which game…...

A Minefield of Downside Risk: How Season-Long Game Script Affects Running Back Production, Part 3

Welcome back to my NFL Game Script series, where I examine how game script affects running back fantasy production in season-long redraft and best ball formats. In Part 1, I broke up our running back sample into quartiles based on their teams’ preseason Vegas Win Totals: Quartile 1 is composed of players from teams with a Vegas Win Total of 9.5 or higher. Quartile 2 is 8.5 to 9.0; Quartile 3 is 7.5 to 8.0; and Quartile 4 is 7.0 and lower. In this installment, I’ll be examining players from Quartile 2 — the group of players for which game…...

What If Zeke’s Holdout Continues? The Cowboys Running Back to Target Late in Redraft

Ezekiel Elliott officially began his contract holdout on July 26. Since that point, fantasy enthusiasts have held their breath hoping for a swift resolution for the consensus top-four fantasy running back. Instead, drafters have had to endure a volley of public posturing that has cultivated some unease in the fantasy-verse. How Long is Elliott Willing to Sit Out? Jerry Jones was the first party to address the matter publicly in an interview with CBS 11 Sports in late July: “The point there is, you don’t have to have a rushing champion to win a Super Bowl […] Emmitt [Smith] was…...

Austin Ekeler is Alvin Kamara-in-Waiting: How Season-Long Game Script Affects Running Back Production, Part 2

Welcome back to my NFL Game Script series, where I examine how game script affects running back fantasy production in season-long redraft and best ball formats. In Part 1 of this series, I examined game script from a bird’s eye view. Let’s recap some of the important findings from Part 1: Game condition (leading vs. trailing) has a significant effect on league-wide pass-rates. On average, teams pass about 17% more often when trailing than when they play with a lead. Preseason Vegas win totals produce significant correlations with regular season pass and rush totals, which confirms their predictive reliability in…...

How Game Script Affects Running Backs in Redraft and Best Ball Formats

Game script: A concept easy to understand in the abstract but difficult to distill into quantifiable data. Those of us who play DFS understand game script through experience. A team gets down two scores early and begins to take more risks in the passing game. At the same time, the team with the lead begins to run the ball conservatively to burn time and keep the opposing offense off the field. Next thing you know, the winning team’s running back racks up 123 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries. Meanwhile, the losing team’s running back only manages 42 yards…...

To Zero-RB or Not To Be: Redraft Strategy for the Passing Revolution, Part 8

Welcome to my NFL Passing Revolution series, where I examine how the NFL’s shift towards efficient pass-heavy offenses has affected the landscape of fantasy football. We’ve now arrived at the final installment of this series; and for my final entry in this epic, I’m going to shift gears a bit. For seven straight articles, I’ve analyzed the NFL and fantasy football with a global lens. Now, it’s finally time to focus-in on 2019 redraft strategy. Using my findings from each of my previous pieces, I’ll guide you through the early rounds in a 12-team, snake-style draft. I don’t pretend to…...

Wide Receiver Is the New Running Back: Redraft Strategy for the Passing Revolution, Part 7

Welcome to my NFL Passing Revolution series, where I examine how the NFL’s shift towards efficient pass-heavy offenses has affected the landscape of fantasy football. In Part 6, I looked at some holistic trends for the wide receiver position. Ironically, the passing revolution seems to have had a negative overall effect on wide receivers’ efficiency due to the swelling number of receivers deployed across the league. However, this decline in efficiency also makes high-target volume WR1s more valuable than they’ve ever been. Still, the data from Part 6 is rather noisy. Global WR data is rife with volatility from season…...

You Must Choose a Side in the WR1 Debate: Redraft Strategy for the Passing Revolution, Part 6

Welcome to my NFL Passing Revolution series, where I examine how the NFL’s shift towards efficient pass-heavy offenses has affected the landscape of fantasy football. In Parts 2-4, I covered the running back position in detail. Then, in Part 5, I addressed the tight end position. In each of my preceding articles, I’ve emphasized the importance of targeting elite pass-catching RB1s and elite tight ends early in the draft. But, if we prioritize RB and TE, how does that affect wide receiver strategy, exactly? In this article and in Part 7, I’ll break down historical trends to examine how and when…...

What If Zeke’s Holdout Continues? The Cowboys Running Back to Target Late in Redraft

Ezekiel Elliott officially began his contract holdout on July 26. Since that point, fantasy enthusiasts have held their breath hoping for a swift resolution for the consensus top-four fantasy running back. Instead, drafters have had to endure a volley of public posturing that has cultivated some unease in the fantasy-verse…....

How Game Script Affects Running Backs in Redraft and Best Ball Formats

Game script: A concept easy to understand in the abstract but difficult to distill into quantifiable data. Those of us who play DFS understand game script through experience. A team gets down two scores early and begins to take more risks in the passing game. At the same time, the…...

To Zero-RB or Not To Be: Redraft Strategy for the Passing Revolution, Part 8

Welcome to my NFL Passing Revolution series, where I examine how the NFL’s shift towards efficient pass-heavy offenses has affected the landscape of fantasy football. We’ve now arrived at the final installment of this series; and for my final entry in this epic, I’m going to shift gears a bit…....

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