Josh Hermsmeyer

Air yards, Numbers Game, and predictive modeling.

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In-Season Articles

jordan matthews 2017

2017 Air Yards Projection Countdown | Jordan Matthews – WR 31

Now that the draft is over I’m excited to report that I’ve finished my air yards model for NFL receivers. Well-validated models are the best and most unbiased forecast of NFL receiver production there is.((The air yards model combined four separate machine learning models into one ensemble model. The models used included a Bayesian neural net, a nearest neighbors algorithm, a random forest algorithm and a…...

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Super Deep Fantasy Sleepers: Arizona Cardinals

Fantasy football analysis is typically devoted to players that are likely to have an immediate impact. But to paraphrase Rod Serling, there is another land, whose boundaries are that of imagination…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Is Eli Manning this year’s Matt Ryan?

Last August, I wrote about Matt Ryan’s bad season discount. At the time, Ryan had an ADP of QB20. It seemed too obvious to me that Ryan was a huge value, having finished in the top 10 in five of six years prior to 2015. He went on to finish as the QB3 in 2016…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this...

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Super Deep Fantasy Sleepers: Buffalo Bills

Fantasy football analysis is typically devoted to players that are likely to have an immediate impact. But to paraphrase Rod Serling, there is another land, whose boundaries are that of imagination…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Reviewing The Startup: A Strategy Discussion With One Of The Finest Dynasty Owners I’ve Ever Played With

This article is a discussion of the strategy used in the startup draft of a new 14-team, best-ball dynasty league, with dynasty whiz kid Benton McDonald…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Super Deep Fantasy Sleepers: Cincinnati Bengals

Fantasy football analysis is typically devoted to players that are likely to have an immediate impact. But to paraphrase Rod Serling, there is another land, whose boundaries are that of imagination…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Super Deep Fantasy Sleepers: Denver Broncos

Fantasy football analysis is typically devoted to players that are likely to have an immediate impact. But to paraphrase Rod Serling, there is another land, whose boundaries are that of imagination…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Super Deep Fantasy Sleepers: Chicago Bears

Fantasy football analysis is typically devoted to players that are likely to have an immediate impact. But to paraphrase Rod Serling, there is another land, whose boundaries are that of imagination…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Going Down? MFL10 ADP Fallers – May 22nd

Once again, we find ourselves looking at players who have suddenly become about as popular as a gastrointestinal accident while wearing a wetsuit. The best-ball community has soured on these players in the last four weeks, and I’m here to tell you why…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Super Deep Fantasy Sleepers: San Diego Chargers

Fantasy football analysis is typically devoted to players that are likely to have an immediate impact. But to paraphrase Rod Serling, there is another land, whose boundaries are that of imagination…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Why Are Dynasty Players Forgetting Eric Ebron?

The months of May and June are filled with Rookie Derangement Syndrome. The shiny new toys of the incoming rookie class are often inflated in value, and fantasy gamers consistently choose them over more proven veterans, even veterans that they previously loved. One strong example of this is Eric Ebron, who continues to be overlooked in the face of the 2017 rookie TE class. The reality…...

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albert wilson chris conley fantasy

Super Deep Fantasy Sleepers: Kansas City Chiefs

Fantasy football analysis is typically devoted to players that are likely to have an immediate impact. But to paraphrase Rod Serling, there is another land, whose boundaries are that of imagination…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Rookies RotoViz Like More Than I Do

Following my award winning piece championing rookies that my fellow scribes are down on, it seems only fair that I turn my gaze in the opposite direction. To that end, here are players of whom I am less than enamored with, at least in relation to my colleagues here at RotoViz…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a...

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fantasy sleepers

Super-Deep Fantasy Sleepers: San Francisco 49ers

Fantasy football analysis is typically devoted to players that are likely to have an immediate impact. But to paraphrase Rod Serling, there is another land, whose boundaries are that of imagination…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Splitting the Camp – Rookies I like Better than RotoViz

War! Since the publication of the RotoViz Rookie Rankings, the RotoViz Slack channel is filled with attacks against writers by other writers. There are heroes on both sides. Evil is everywhere…well, not really. But it is evident that certain writers have stronger feelings towards some players than others…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in...

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Rebuilding From Outside the First 5 Picks: 4 Rookies to Target

RotoViz extensively covered the NFL draft with QB and TE models as well as multiple RB and WR models. During draft week, 24 writers penned 59 draft reactions. This week we released our rookie rankings. Twenty-two writers and dynasty owners ranked 60-plus rookies. This is a look at four rookies you should target in the first two rounds. Part 2 will focus on how to…...

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2017 Air Yards Projection Countdown | Mike Wallace – WR 33

Now that the draft is over I’m excited to report that I’ve finished my air yards model for NFL receivers. Well-validated models are the best and most unbiased forecast of NFL receiver production there is.((The air yards model combined four separate machine learning models into one ensemble model. The models used included a Bayesian neural net, a nearest neighbors algorithm, a random forest algorithm and a…...

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Taking a Look Under the Hood

Editor’s Note: John Lapinski won the 2017 RotoViz Writing Contest. His winning entry is here; the following version has been updated to reflect the NFL draft. If you’d like to write for RotoViz, we have a standing offer for new writers…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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jordan matthews 2017

2017 Air Yards Projection Countdown | Jordan Matthews – WR 31

Now that the draft is over I’m excited to report that I’ve finished my air yards model for NFL receivers. Well-validated models are the best and most unbiased forecast of NFL receiver production there is.((The air yards model combined four separate machine learning models into one ensemble model. The models used included a Bayesian neural net, a nearest neighbors algorithm, a random forest algorithm and a…...

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Super Deep Fantasy Sleepers: Arizona Cardinals

Fantasy football analysis is typically devoted to players that are likely to have an immediate impact. But to paraphrase Rod Serling, there is another land, whose boundaries are that of imagination…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Is Eli Manning this year’s Matt Ryan?

Last August, I wrote about Matt Ryan’s bad season discount. At the time, Ryan had an ADP of QB20. It seemed too obvious to me that Ryan was a huge value, having finished in the top 10 in five of six years prior to 2015. He went on to finish as the QB3 in 2016…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this...

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Super Deep Fantasy Sleepers: Buffalo Bills

Fantasy football analysis is typically devoted to players that are likely to have an immediate impact. But to paraphrase Rod Serling, there is another land, whose boundaries are that of imagination…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Reviewing The Startup: A Strategy Discussion With One Of The Finest Dynasty Owners I’ve Ever Played With

This article is a discussion of the strategy used in the startup draft of a new 14-team, best-ball dynasty league, with dynasty whiz kid Benton McDonald…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Super Deep Fantasy Sleepers: Cincinnati Bengals

Fantasy football analysis is typically devoted to players that are likely to have an immediate impact. But to paraphrase Rod Serling, there is another land, whose boundaries are that of imagination…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Super Deep Fantasy Sleepers: Denver Broncos

Fantasy football analysis is typically devoted to players that are likely to have an immediate impact. But to paraphrase Rod Serling, there is another land, whose boundaries are that of imagination…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Super Deep Fantasy Sleepers: Chicago Bears

Fantasy football analysis is typically devoted to players that are likely to have an immediate impact. But to paraphrase Rod Serling, there is another land, whose boundaries are that of imagination…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Going Down? MFL10 ADP Fallers – May 22nd

Once again, we find ourselves looking at players who have suddenly become about as popular as a gastrointestinal accident while wearing a wetsuit. The best-ball community has soured on these players in the last four weeks, and I’m here to tell you why…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Super Deep Fantasy Sleepers: San Diego Chargers

Fantasy football analysis is typically devoted to players that are likely to have an immediate impact. But to paraphrase Rod Serling, there is another land, whose boundaries are that of imagination…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Why Are Dynasty Players Forgetting Eric Ebron?

The months of May and June are filled with Rookie Derangement Syndrome. The shiny new toys of the incoming rookie class are often inflated in value, and fantasy gamers consistently choose them over more proven veterans, even veterans that they previously loved. One strong example of this is Eric Ebron, who continues to be overlooked in the face of the 2017 rookie TE class. The reality…...

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albert wilson chris conley fantasy

Super Deep Fantasy Sleepers: Kansas City Chiefs

Fantasy football analysis is typically devoted to players that are likely to have an immediate impact. But to paraphrase Rod Serling, there is another land, whose boundaries are that of imagination…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Rookies RotoViz Like More Than I Do

Following my award winning piece championing rookies that my fellow scribes are down on, it seems only fair that I turn my gaze in the opposite direction. To that end, here are players of whom I am less than enamored with, at least in relation to my colleagues here at RotoViz…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a...

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fantasy sleepers

Super-Deep Fantasy Sleepers: San Francisco 49ers

Fantasy football analysis is typically devoted to players that are likely to have an immediate impact. But to paraphrase Rod Serling, there is another land, whose boundaries are that of imagination…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Splitting the Camp – Rookies I like Better than RotoViz

War! Since the publication of the RotoViz Rookie Rankings, the RotoViz Slack channel is filled with attacks against writers by other writers. There are heroes on both sides. Evil is everywhere…well, not really. But it is evident that certain writers have stronger feelings towards some players than others…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in...

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Rebuilding From Outside the First 5 Picks: 4 Rookies to Target

RotoViz extensively covered the NFL draft with QB and TE models as well as multiple RB and WR models. During draft week, 24 writers penned 59 draft reactions. This week we released our rookie rankings. Twenty-two writers and dynasty owners ranked 60-plus rookies. This is a look at four rookies you should target in the first two rounds. Part 2 will focus on how to…...

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2017 Air Yards Projection Countdown | Mike Wallace – WR 33

Now that the draft is over I’m excited to report that I’ve finished my air yards model for NFL receivers. Well-validated models are the best and most unbiased forecast of NFL receiver production there is.((The air yards model combined four separate machine learning models into one ensemble model. The models used included a Bayesian neural net, a nearest neighbors algorithm, a random forest algorithm and a…...

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Taking a Look Under the Hood

Editor’s Note: John Lapinski won the 2017 RotoViz Writing Contest. His winning entry is here; the following version has been updated to reflect the NFL draft. If you’d like to write for RotoViz, we have a standing offer for new writers…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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jordan matthews 2017

2017 Air Yards Projection Countdown | Jordan Matthews – WR 31

Now that the draft is over I’m excited to report that I’ve finished my air yards model for NFL receivers. Well-validated models are the best and most unbiased forecast of NFL receiver production there is.((The air yards model combined four separate machine learning models into one ensemble model. The models used included a Bayesian neural net, a nearest neighbors algorithm, a random forest algorithm and a…...

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Super Deep Fantasy Sleepers: Arizona Cardinals

Fantasy football analysis is typically devoted to players that are likely to have an immediate impact. But to paraphrase Rod Serling, there is another land, whose boundaries are that of imagination…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Is Eli Manning this year’s Matt Ryan?

Last August, I wrote about Matt Ryan’s bad season discount. At the time, Ryan had an ADP of QB20. It seemed too obvious to me that Ryan was a huge value, having finished in the top 10 in five of six years prior to 2015. He went on to finish as the QB3 in 2016…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this...

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Super Deep Fantasy Sleepers: Buffalo Bills

Fantasy football analysis is typically devoted to players that are likely to have an immediate impact. But to paraphrase Rod Serling, there is another land, whose boundaries are that of imagination…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Reviewing The Startup: A Strategy Discussion With One Of The Finest Dynasty Owners I’ve Ever Played With

This article is a discussion of the strategy used in the startup draft of a new 14-team, best-ball dynasty league, with dynasty whiz kid Benton McDonald…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Super Deep Fantasy Sleepers: Cincinnati Bengals

Fantasy football analysis is typically devoted to players that are likely to have an immediate impact. But to paraphrase Rod Serling, there is another land, whose boundaries are that of imagination…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Super Deep Fantasy Sleepers: Denver Broncos

Fantasy football analysis is typically devoted to players that are likely to have an immediate impact. But to paraphrase Rod Serling, there is another land, whose boundaries are that of imagination…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Super Deep Fantasy Sleepers: Chicago Bears

Fantasy football analysis is typically devoted to players that are likely to have an immediate impact. But to paraphrase Rod Serling, there is another land, whose boundaries are that of imagination…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Going Down? MFL10 ADP Fallers – May 22nd

Once again, we find ourselves looking at players who have suddenly become about as popular as a gastrointestinal accident while wearing a wetsuit. The best-ball community has soured on these players in the last four weeks, and I’m here to tell you why…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Super Deep Fantasy Sleepers: San Diego Chargers

Fantasy football analysis is typically devoted to players that are likely to have an immediate impact. But to paraphrase Rod Serling, there is another land, whose boundaries are that of imagination…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Why Are Dynasty Players Forgetting Eric Ebron?

The months of May and June are filled with Rookie Derangement Syndrome. The shiny new toys of the incoming rookie class are often inflated in value, and fantasy gamers consistently choose them over more proven veterans, even veterans that they previously loved. One strong example of this is Eric Ebron, who continues to be overlooked in the face of the 2017 rookie TE class. The reality…...

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albert wilson chris conley fantasy

Super Deep Fantasy Sleepers: Kansas City Chiefs

Fantasy football analysis is typically devoted to players that are likely to have an immediate impact. But to paraphrase Rod Serling, there is another land, whose boundaries are that of imagination…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Rookies RotoViz Like More Than I Do

Following my award winning piece championing rookies that my fellow scribes are down on, it seems only fair that I turn my gaze in the opposite direction. To that end, here are players of whom I am less than enamored with, at least in relation to my colleagues here at RotoViz…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a...

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fantasy sleepers

Super-Deep Fantasy Sleepers: San Francisco 49ers

Fantasy football analysis is typically devoted to players that are likely to have an immediate impact. But to paraphrase Rod Serling, there is another land, whose boundaries are that of imagination…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Splitting the Camp – Rookies I like Better than RotoViz

War! Since the publication of the RotoViz Rookie Rankings, the RotoViz Slack channel is filled with attacks against writers by other writers. There are heroes on both sides. Evil is everywhere…well, not really. But it is evident that certain writers have stronger feelings towards some players than others…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in...

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Rebuilding From Outside the First 5 Picks: 4 Rookies to Target

RotoViz extensively covered the NFL draft with QB and TE models as well as multiple RB and WR models. During draft week, 24 writers penned 59 draft reactions. This week we released our rookie rankings. Twenty-two writers and dynasty owners ranked 60-plus rookies. This is a look at four rookies you should target in the first two rounds. Part 2 will focus on how to…...

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2017 Air Yards Projection Countdown | Mike Wallace – WR 33

Now that the draft is over I’m excited to report that I’ve finished my air yards model for NFL receivers. Well-validated models are the best and most unbiased forecast of NFL receiver production there is.((The air yards model combined four separate machine learning models into one ensemble model. The models used included a Bayesian neural net, a nearest neighbors algorithm, a random forest algorithm and a…...

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Taking a Look Under the Hood

Editor’s Note: John Lapinski won the 2017 RotoViz Writing Contest. His winning entry is here; the following version has been updated to reflect the NFL draft. If you’d like to write for RotoViz, we have a standing offer for new writers…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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