Josh Hermsmeyer

Air yards, Numbers Game, and predictive modeling.

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In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

Using Air Yards to Better Predict Receiving Yards

The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing fantasy footballers that efficiency is useful. Unless you are talking about quarterbacks, I can’t really think of a good efficiency metric. When you test them to see if they predict anything, you always find that they come crashing back to the mean the next season like a garbage meteorite. But maybe that is about to change…. Membership...

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Mark Ingram and 4 Other RBs Who Should Get Off to Blazing Starts

We often hear that late season performance is more important than early season performance, but one trait of elite high stakes players is an emphasis on starting fast. If you play in any serious league, making the playoffs is the key. … Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Should Robert Griffin Scare You Away From Duke Johnson?

The August 25 Rotoworld Football Podcast included an interesting discussion of running quarterbacks and pass-catching running backs. Specifically, Josh Norris and Evan Silva noted that, compared to all QBs, running QBs are more likely to scramble and less likely to check down to RBs. This hypothesis makes sense, but so do many things that end up not being true, so I threw some numbers at it…. Membership Required...

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You Should Draft LeGarrette Blount – Jody Smith: RotoViz Mailbag, 26 Aug 2016

August 26, 2016: The RotoViz Mailbag, the RotoViz Radio show dedicated to answering your fantasy football questions, featuring analysis of many key players in the dynasty and best ball markets…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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How High is DeSean Jackson’s Upside? – Anthony Gulizia (Washington Times): Redskins 2016 Preview, RotoViz Radio

August 25, 2016: RotoViz Radio: A Fantasy Football Podcast (@RotoVizRadio), featuring an interview with Anthony Gulizia of the Washington Times and a preview of the Washington Redskins’ 2016 season…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Does it Matter if the Lions go Up-Tempo?

From Matthew Stafford Looking Good: Now, though, Detroit has been in the no-huddle 62 percent of their plays during the preseason. That’s up from just 7 percent in the regular season last year… “The faster you can push the tempo, when you want to, really, it just makes it more stressful on the defense,” Stafford said…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this...

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The Forgotten Saints Pass Catcher Who Might be a Starter

If you weren’t paying attention, and judging by recent ADP you weren’t, Brandon Coleman started in the slot for the Saints during their second preseason game. He proceeded to see two targets from Drew Brees, while seeing six targets in the first half of the game. For the record, I know it’s easy to wildly overreact to what goes on in the preseason, so I’m not…...

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WR regression candidates

2016’s Top WR Regression Candidates in Efficiency

When Josh Hermsmeyer recently introduced his air yards and air yards per target metrics, one interesting note was that a multiple linear regression of targets and total air yards explained 80 percent of a wide receiver’s receiving yards…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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RotoViz Recommends: Our Favorite Players by Round

The RotoViz crew got together today and talk naturally turned to fantasy football. The topic? If we could have any player in each round, who would that player be? Ignoring draft slot, and just picking our favorite player per round, here are our most-loved redraft targets for 2016…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in...

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4 Wide Receivers RotoViz Might be Underrating

Using the Projection Machine, I recently projected all 32 teams and took a look at how my ranks compared to current ADP and the composite projections from the rest of the RotoViz crew…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Diary of High-Stakes Virgins: FFPC Draft Strategy

On Friday September 9th, Fantasyland Producer Pat Kerrane and I will be drafting a team in the FFPC’s Main Event live in Las Vegas. With an $1,875 dollar buy-in and a first place prize of $250,000, it is by far the most money either of us have ever had at a stake in a fantasy league. We are terrified and excited, though mostly terrified. We’ll be chronicling…...

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mike pouncey

Update: Buy Jay Ajayi Now

Source: Jarvis Landry: Dolphins’ up-tempo offense made some of Dallas’ defensive players vomit – Sun Sentinel The Miami Dolphins’ up-tempo offense worked so well last Friday against Dallas, according to wide receiver Jarvis Landry, its rapid pace caused a couple of the Cowboys’ defensive linemen to lose their lunch…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log...

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My Guy: Building Your Draft Around a Late-Round Pick

I’ve been playing fantasy football for 17 seasons, and have done dozens of drafts each year for as long as I can remember. This is relevant only in that I’ve done a lot of drafting, and in that time there is a specific strategy I’ve come to employ that I find is my favorite…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View...

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Deep Dynasty Stash: The Backup Running Back in the Volatile Backfield

An interesting name to emerge recently has been Isaiah Pead, a once highly drafted back for the Rams who now finds himself an Arian Foster soft-tissue injury and Jay Ajayi arthritic knee away from starter’s touches. From CBS.com: When the Dolphins called him up in March, he called it a “blessing in disguise.” He’s repaid them as best he can-by leading the team in rushing…...

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Want to Lock in Coby Fleener’s Upside, But Avoid His Risk? Try This Late Round Tight End

In the summer of 2007, the fantasy community was lukewarm on Randy Moss. Here is a common refrain from that preseason, echoed by a commenter on the Fantasy Football Geek Blog…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Ezekiel Elliott Has Become A Terrifying First Round Pick

Ezekiel Elliott is being drafted in the first round of fantasy drafts, and he hasn’t played a professional snap just two weeks before the season begins. … Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Using Air Yards to Better Predict Receiving Yards

The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing fantasy footballers that efficiency is useful. Unless you are talking about quarterbacks, I can’t really think of a good efficiency metric. When you test them to see if they predict anything, you always find that they come crashing back to the mean the next season like a garbage meteorite. But maybe that is about to change…. Membership...

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Mark Ingram and 4 Other RBs Who Should Get Off to Blazing Starts

We often hear that late season performance is more important than early season performance, but one trait of elite high stakes players is an emphasis on starting fast. If you play in any serious league, making the playoffs is the key. … Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Should Robert Griffin Scare You Away From Duke Johnson?

The August 25 Rotoworld Football Podcast included an interesting discussion of running quarterbacks and pass-catching running backs. Specifically, Josh Norris and Evan Silva noted that, compared to all QBs, running QBs are more likely to scramble and less likely to check down to RBs. This hypothesis makes sense, but so do many things that end up not being true, so I threw some numbers at it…. Membership Required...

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You Should Draft LeGarrette Blount – Jody Smith: RotoViz Mailbag, 26 Aug 2016

August 26, 2016: The RotoViz Mailbag, the RotoViz Radio show dedicated to answering your fantasy football questions, featuring analysis of many key players in the dynasty and best ball markets…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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How High is DeSean Jackson’s Upside? – Anthony Gulizia (Washington Times): Redskins 2016 Preview, RotoViz Radio

August 25, 2016: RotoViz Radio: A Fantasy Football Podcast (@RotoVizRadio), featuring an interview with Anthony Gulizia of the Washington Times and a preview of the Washington Redskins’ 2016 season…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Does it Matter if the Lions go Up-Tempo?

From Matthew Stafford Looking Good: Now, though, Detroit has been in the no-huddle 62 percent of their plays during the preseason. That’s up from just 7 percent in the regular season last year… “The faster you can push the tempo, when you want to, really, it just makes it more stressful on the defense,” Stafford said…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this...

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The Forgotten Saints Pass Catcher Who Might be a Starter

If you weren’t paying attention, and judging by recent ADP you weren’t, Brandon Coleman started in the slot for the Saints during their second preseason game. He proceeded to see two targets from Drew Brees, while seeing six targets in the first half of the game. For the record, I know it’s easy to wildly overreact to what goes on in the preseason, so I’m not…...

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WR regression candidates

2016’s Top WR Regression Candidates in Efficiency

When Josh Hermsmeyer recently introduced his air yards and air yards per target metrics, one interesting note was that a multiple linear regression of targets and total air yards explained 80 percent of a wide receiver’s receiving yards…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

Membership Required

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RotoViz Recommends: Our Favorite Players by Round

The RotoViz crew got together today and talk naturally turned to fantasy football. The topic? If we could have any player in each round, who would that player be? Ignoring draft slot, and just picking our favorite player per round, here are our most-loved redraft targets for 2016…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in...

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4 Wide Receivers RotoViz Might be Underrating

Using the Projection Machine, I recently projected all 32 teams and took a look at how my ranks compared to current ADP and the composite projections from the rest of the RotoViz crew…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

Membership Required

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Diary of High-Stakes Virgins: FFPC Draft Strategy

On Friday September 9th, Fantasyland Producer Pat Kerrane and I will be drafting a team in the FFPC’s Main Event live in Las Vegas. With an $1,875 dollar buy-in and a first place prize of $250,000, it is by far the most money either of us have ever had at a stake in a fantasy league. We are terrified and excited, though mostly terrified. We’ll be chronicling…...

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mike pouncey

Update: Buy Jay Ajayi Now

Source: Jarvis Landry: Dolphins’ up-tempo offense made some of Dallas’ defensive players vomit – Sun Sentinel The Miami Dolphins’ up-tempo offense worked so well last Friday against Dallas, according to wide receiver Jarvis Landry, its rapid pace caused a couple of the Cowboys’ defensive linemen to lose their lunch…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log...

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My Guy: Building Your Draft Around a Late-Round Pick

I’ve been playing fantasy football for 17 seasons, and have done dozens of drafts each year for as long as I can remember. This is relevant only in that I’ve done a lot of drafting, and in that time there is a specific strategy I’ve come to employ that I find is my favorite…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View...

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Deep Dynasty Stash: The Backup Running Back in the Volatile Backfield

An interesting name to emerge recently has been Isaiah Pead, a once highly drafted back for the Rams who now finds himself an Arian Foster soft-tissue injury and Jay Ajayi arthritic knee away from starter’s touches. From CBS.com: When the Dolphins called him up in March, he called it a “blessing in disguise.” He’s repaid them as best he can-by leading the team in rushing…...

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Want to Lock in Coby Fleener’s Upside, But Avoid His Risk? Try This Late Round Tight End

In the summer of 2007, the fantasy community was lukewarm on Randy Moss. Here is a common refrain from that preseason, echoed by a commenter on the Fantasy Football Geek Blog…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

Membership Required

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Ezekiel Elliott Has Become A Terrifying First Round Pick

Ezekiel Elliott is being drafted in the first round of fantasy drafts, and he hasn’t played a professional snap just two weeks before the season begins. … Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Using Air Yards to Better Predict Receiving Yards

The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing fantasy footballers that efficiency is useful. Unless you are talking about quarterbacks, I can’t really think of a good efficiency metric. When you test them to see if they predict anything, you always find that they come crashing back to the mean the next season like a garbage meteorite. But maybe that is about to change…. Membership...

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Mark Ingram and 4 Other RBs Who Should Get Off to Blazing Starts

We often hear that late season performance is more important than early season performance, but one trait of elite high stakes players is an emphasis on starting fast. If you play in any serious league, making the playoffs is the key. … Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Should Robert Griffin Scare You Away From Duke Johnson?

The August 25 Rotoworld Football Podcast included an interesting discussion of running quarterbacks and pass-catching running backs. Specifically, Josh Norris and Evan Silva noted that, compared to all QBs, running QBs are more likely to scramble and less likely to check down to RBs. This hypothesis makes sense, but so do many things that end up not being true, so I threw some numbers at it…. Membership Required...

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You Should Draft LeGarrette Blount – Jody Smith: RotoViz Mailbag, 26 Aug 2016

August 26, 2016: The RotoViz Mailbag, the RotoViz Radio show dedicated to answering your fantasy football questions, featuring analysis of many key players in the dynasty and best ball markets…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

Membership Required

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View Membership Levels

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How High is DeSean Jackson’s Upside? – Anthony Gulizia (Washington Times): Redskins 2016 Preview, RotoViz Radio

August 25, 2016: RotoViz Radio: A Fantasy Football Podcast (@RotoVizRadio), featuring an interview with Anthony Gulizia of the Washington Times and a preview of the Washington Redskins’ 2016 season…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

Membership Required

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Does it Matter if the Lions go Up-Tempo?

From Matthew Stafford Looking Good: Now, though, Detroit has been in the no-huddle 62 percent of their plays during the preseason. That’s up from just 7 percent in the regular season last year… “The faster you can push the tempo, when you want to, really, it just makes it more stressful on the defense,” Stafford said…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this...

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The Forgotten Saints Pass Catcher Who Might be a Starter

If you weren’t paying attention, and judging by recent ADP you weren’t, Brandon Coleman started in the slot for the Saints during their second preseason game. He proceeded to see two targets from Drew Brees, while seeing six targets in the first half of the game. For the record, I know it’s easy to wildly overreact to what goes on in the preseason, so I’m not…...

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WR regression candidates

2016’s Top WR Regression Candidates in Efficiency

When Josh Hermsmeyer recently introduced his air yards and air yards per target metrics, one interesting note was that a multiple linear regression of targets and total air yards explained 80 percent of a wide receiver’s receiving yards…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

Membership Required

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RotoViz Recommends: Our Favorite Players by Round

The RotoViz crew got together today and talk naturally turned to fantasy football. The topic? If we could have any player in each round, who would that player be? Ignoring draft slot, and just picking our favorite player per round, here are our most-loved redraft targets for 2016…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in...

Membership Required

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4 Wide Receivers RotoViz Might be Underrating

Using the Projection Machine, I recently projected all 32 teams and took a look at how my ranks compared to current ADP and the composite projections from the rest of the RotoViz crew…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

Membership Required

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Diary of High-Stakes Virgins: FFPC Draft Strategy

On Friday September 9th, Fantasyland Producer Pat Kerrane and I will be drafting a team in the FFPC’s Main Event live in Las Vegas. With an $1,875 dollar buy-in and a first place prize of $250,000, it is by far the most money either of us have ever had at a stake in a fantasy league. We are terrified and excited, though mostly terrified. We’ll be chronicling…...

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mike pouncey

Update: Buy Jay Ajayi Now

Source: Jarvis Landry: Dolphins’ up-tempo offense made some of Dallas’ defensive players vomit – Sun Sentinel The Miami Dolphins’ up-tempo offense worked so well last Friday against Dallas, according to wide receiver Jarvis Landry, its rapid pace caused a couple of the Cowboys’ defensive linemen to lose their lunch…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log...

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My Guy: Building Your Draft Around a Late-Round Pick

I’ve been playing fantasy football for 17 seasons, and have done dozens of drafts each year for as long as I can remember. This is relevant only in that I’ve done a lot of drafting, and in that time there is a specific strategy I’ve come to employ that I find is my favorite…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View...

Membership Required

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Deep Dynasty Stash: The Backup Running Back in the Volatile Backfield

An interesting name to emerge recently has been Isaiah Pead, a once highly drafted back for the Rams who now finds himself an Arian Foster soft-tissue injury and Jay Ajayi arthritic knee away from starter’s touches. From CBS.com: When the Dolphins called him up in March, he called it a “blessing in disguise.” He’s repaid them as best he can-by leading the team in rushing…...

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Want to Lock in Coby Fleener’s Upside, But Avoid His Risk? Try This Late Round Tight End

In the summer of 2007, the fantasy community was lukewarm on Randy Moss. Here is a common refrain from that preseason, echoed by a commenter on the Fantasy Football Geek Blog…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Ezekiel Elliott Has Become A Terrifying First Round Pick

Ezekiel Elliott is being drafted in the first round of fantasy drafts, and he hasn’t played a professional snap just two weeks before the season begins. … Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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