Josh Hermsmeyer

Air yards, Numbers Game, and predictive modeling.

Author Archive

In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

Is David Johnson’s Second Half Performance a Mirage?

I’ll come right out and admit that I prefer the second half of nearly everything to the first. From movies to sporting events to sex, the second half just completely dominates the first. It’s almost a universal constant for me. Is the same true for running backs?… Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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You Can Do Worse than Denver’s Starting QB

Source: Broncos’ Williams: QB job is Sanchez’s to lose | theScore.com “Right now, they’re giving all three of those guys equal reps, so I don’t think either one of them has created any advantage at this point, because they haven’t consistently been with the ones yet,” Williams told SiriusXM NFL Radio. “But I think, going into the camp, I think coach (Kubiak) kind of let…...

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This One Weird Trick Will Make You a Better Dynasty Owner

The “quantified self” is mainstream. We count steps. We track our feelings. We count the number of times our partners say “I love you” – well, most of us don’t, but some of us do. Yet when it comes to fantasy football, a hobby that lends itself to tracking, we’re as self aware as a golden retriever. Sure, Adam Harstad keeps a “fantasy journal” that’s more safe for…...

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2 Value QBs That Drafters Always Seem to Ignore

Dynasty assets come in all shapes and sizes. What seems like a bad Eddie Lacy joke is actually just the reality of how we view players…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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7 Potentially Undervalued Pass-Catching RBs and 2 to Sell

It’s almost impossible not to like Danny Woodhead. He’s one of my favorite reality players, and it’s with no small amount of disappointment that I’m not targeting him in fantasy this season…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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The Thorn in Eddie Lacy’s Rather Large Side

After the disaster that was Eddie Lacy’s 2015 season, it’s hard to believe that the rotund running back is going off the board in the second round of 2016 drafts as RB9. Though the majority of drafters are expecting a bounce back season, prudent owners should really think long and hard before investing significant draft capital into the fourth year back. A SQUANDERED OPPORTUNITY The…...

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At Which Position is ADP Most Predictive of Variance in Fantasy Playoff Scoring?

Whether you’re playing in a major fantasy football tournament or just a friend’s league, Weeks 14-16 simply mean more to fantasy football success than any other weeks in the NFL season…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Betting Against History: One Quarterback Looks Way Overdrafted

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston is being drafted with exceptionally high fantasy expectations for a second-year, 22 year old quarterback in a run-first offense. … Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Brandin Cooks Lacks Top-5 Upside – Nick Underhill (New Orleans Advocate): Saints 2016 Preview, RotoViz Radio

July 20, 2016: RotoViz Radio: A Fantasy Football Podcast (@RotoVizRadio), featuring an interview with Nick Underhill of the New Orleans Advocate and a preview of the New Orleans Saints’ 2016 season. If you’re a listener of the show who isn’t subscribing yet to RotoViz you can get a special 30% subscription discount through the podcast.  Co-Host: Ben Gretch (@YardsPerGretch) Co-Host: Pat Kerrane (@PatKerrane) GUEST: NICK UNDERHILL, NEW ORLEANS ADVOCATE…...

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Applying the Zero RB Strategy to 2016 Auction Drafts

One of the more common questions I see about the Zero RB draft strategy is, “how would this work in an auction draft?”… Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Mock Madness: Using Zero RB To Create A Monster in 2016

When I draft my fantasy football teams, I usually follow the best player available (BPA) approach. Frequently, BPA will morph into Zero RB based on the players on the board, but flexibility is the key…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Is Drafting a Chiefs’ Backup RB Worth the Headache?

Source: Mike Clay on Twitter Adam also said that Spencer Ware should be considered the #2 back, but that both he and C West would play if Charles went down @adamteicher — Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) July 19, 2016 Both Spencer Ware and Charcandrick “Charcnado” West won fantasy teams some matchups (and DFS players some tournaments) in 2015. But fantasy drafters can’t figure out which player is the better handcuff to Jamaal…...

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The (W)Hole Story of Running Back Usage

Running Backs have lost some luster in fantasy circles in recent years. “Zero RB Theorem” proponents abound and it is now entirely possible to see fantasy drafts occur in which a running back isn’t even taken in the first round…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Fantasy Golf: Canadian Open Picks

Welcome to my fantasy golf picks and player writeups for the RBC Canadian Open at Glen Abbey Golf Club. Use this article along with my fantasy golf projections to help set your lineups this week. I covered the important points about the course in my previous article so I will jump right into my Canadian Open picks…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this...

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DFS Contrarian

A Second Look at Second-Half Splits

Charles Kleinheksel recently wrote about the danger of using partial-season splits to predict future performance. He showed that excluding a subset of games — say, the first half of the season — generally makes our predictions worse. That’s good to know, but it doesn’t answer the question of whether it’s useful to look at partial-season splits. Think of each game as a data point. Kleinheksel presented two…...

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Which Players Will Be Fantasy Football’s “Panda”?

If you’ve turned on your radio in the past few months, there’s a very good chance that you’ve heard the song “Panda” by Desiigner. With a thumping beat, and catchy, repetitive lyrics, the song rose to number one on Billboard’s Hot 100 in April…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Situational Production, Player Opportunity and DFS Mistakes: Warren Sharp, SharpFootballAnalysis.com – Numbers Game 61

Episode 61 (July 20th, 2016): The sixty-first episode of The Numbers Game (@NumbersGamePod), an analytics-focused RotoViz Radio powered podcast…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Jordy Nelson Is Back With a Vengeance – Ryan Wood (Green Bay Press-Gazette): Packers 2016 Preview, RotoViz Radio

July 19, 2016: RotoViz Radio: A Fantasy Football Podcast (@RotoVizRadio), featuring an interview with Ryan Wood of the Green Bay Press-Gazette and a preview of the Green Bay Packers’ 2016 season. If you’re a listener of the show who isn’t subscribing yet to RotoViz you can get a special 30% subscription discount through the podcast.  Co-Host: Pat Kerrane (@PatKerrane) Co-Host: Ben Gretch (@YardsPerGretch) GUEST: RYAN WOOD, GREEN BAY PRESS-GAZETTE (@BYRYANWOOD) Ryan Wood covers…...

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MFL10

A Quick Look at The Evolution of Fantasy Points from Receiving

We have often heard that the NFL has become a passing league. While most of us have accepted that we are in a world where drafting Zero RB has become a dominant strategy, I decided to crunch some numbers and see what effect this evolution has had on fantasy receiving output and game over-under lines throughout time…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member?...

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Is David Johnson’s Second Half Performance a Mirage?

I’ll come right out and admit that I prefer the second half of nearly everything to the first. From movies to sporting events to sex, the second half just completely dominates the first. It’s almost a universal constant for me. Is the same true for running backs?… Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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You Can Do Worse than Denver’s Starting QB

Source: Broncos’ Williams: QB job is Sanchez’s to lose | theScore.com “Right now, they’re giving all three of those guys equal reps, so I don’t think either one of them has created any advantage at this point, because they haven’t consistently been with the ones yet,” Williams told SiriusXM NFL Radio. “But I think, going into the camp, I think coach (Kubiak) kind of let…...

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This One Weird Trick Will Make You a Better Dynasty Owner

The “quantified self” is mainstream. We count steps. We track our feelings. We count the number of times our partners say “I love you” – well, most of us don’t, but some of us do. Yet when it comes to fantasy football, a hobby that lends itself to tracking, we’re as self aware as a golden retriever. Sure, Adam Harstad keeps a “fantasy journal” that’s more safe for…...

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2 Value QBs That Drafters Always Seem to Ignore

Dynasty assets come in all shapes and sizes. What seems like a bad Eddie Lacy joke is actually just the reality of how we view players…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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7 Potentially Undervalued Pass-Catching RBs and 2 to Sell

It’s almost impossible not to like Danny Woodhead. He’s one of my favorite reality players, and it’s with no small amount of disappointment that I’m not targeting him in fantasy this season…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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The Thorn in Eddie Lacy’s Rather Large Side

After the disaster that was Eddie Lacy’s 2015 season, it’s hard to believe that the rotund running back is going off the board in the second round of 2016 drafts as RB9. Though the majority of drafters are expecting a bounce back season, prudent owners should really think long and hard before investing significant draft capital into the fourth year back. A SQUANDERED OPPORTUNITY The…...

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At Which Position is ADP Most Predictive of Variance in Fantasy Playoff Scoring?

Whether you’re playing in a major fantasy football tournament or just a friend’s league, Weeks 14-16 simply mean more to fantasy football success than any other weeks in the NFL season…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Betting Against History: One Quarterback Looks Way Overdrafted

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston is being drafted with exceptionally high fantasy expectations for a second-year, 22 year old quarterback in a run-first offense. … Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Brandin Cooks Lacks Top-5 Upside – Nick Underhill (New Orleans Advocate): Saints 2016 Preview, RotoViz Radio

July 20, 2016: RotoViz Radio: A Fantasy Football Podcast (@RotoVizRadio), featuring an interview with Nick Underhill of the New Orleans Advocate and a preview of the New Orleans Saints’ 2016 season. If you’re a listener of the show who isn’t subscribing yet to RotoViz you can get a special 30% subscription discount through the podcast.  Co-Host: Ben Gretch (@YardsPerGretch) Co-Host: Pat Kerrane (@PatKerrane) GUEST: NICK UNDERHILL, NEW ORLEANS ADVOCATE…...

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Applying the Zero RB Strategy to 2016 Auction Drafts

One of the more common questions I see about the Zero RB draft strategy is, “how would this work in an auction draft?”… Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Mock Madness: Using Zero RB To Create A Monster in 2016

When I draft my fantasy football teams, I usually follow the best player available (BPA) approach. Frequently, BPA will morph into Zero RB based on the players on the board, but flexibility is the key…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Is Drafting a Chiefs’ Backup RB Worth the Headache?

Source: Mike Clay on Twitter Adam also said that Spencer Ware should be considered the #2 back, but that both he and C West would play if Charles went down @adamteicher — Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) July 19, 2016 Both Spencer Ware and Charcandrick “Charcnado” West won fantasy teams some matchups (and DFS players some tournaments) in 2015. But fantasy drafters can’t figure out which player is the better handcuff to Jamaal…...

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The (W)Hole Story of Running Back Usage

Running Backs have lost some luster in fantasy circles in recent years. “Zero RB Theorem” proponents abound and it is now entirely possible to see fantasy drafts occur in which a running back isn’t even taken in the first round…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Fantasy Golf: Canadian Open Picks

Welcome to my fantasy golf picks and player writeups for the RBC Canadian Open at Glen Abbey Golf Club. Use this article along with my fantasy golf projections to help set your lineups this week. I covered the important points about the course in my previous article so I will jump right into my Canadian Open picks…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this...

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DFS Contrarian

A Second Look at Second-Half Splits

Charles Kleinheksel recently wrote about the danger of using partial-season splits to predict future performance. He showed that excluding a subset of games — say, the first half of the season — generally makes our predictions worse. That’s good to know, but it doesn’t answer the question of whether it’s useful to look at partial-season splits. Think of each game as a data point. Kleinheksel presented two…...

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Which Players Will Be Fantasy Football’s “Panda”?

If you’ve turned on your radio in the past few months, there’s a very good chance that you’ve heard the song “Panda” by Desiigner. With a thumping beat, and catchy, repetitive lyrics, the song rose to number one on Billboard’s Hot 100 in April…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Situational Production, Player Opportunity and DFS Mistakes: Warren Sharp, SharpFootballAnalysis.com – Numbers Game 61

Episode 61 (July 20th, 2016): The sixty-first episode of The Numbers Game (@NumbersGamePod), an analytics-focused RotoViz Radio powered podcast…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Jordy Nelson Is Back With a Vengeance – Ryan Wood (Green Bay Press-Gazette): Packers 2016 Preview, RotoViz Radio

July 19, 2016: RotoViz Radio: A Fantasy Football Podcast (@RotoVizRadio), featuring an interview with Ryan Wood of the Green Bay Press-Gazette and a preview of the Green Bay Packers’ 2016 season. If you’re a listener of the show who isn’t subscribing yet to RotoViz you can get a special 30% subscription discount through the podcast.  Co-Host: Pat Kerrane (@PatKerrane) Co-Host: Ben Gretch (@YardsPerGretch) GUEST: RYAN WOOD, GREEN BAY PRESS-GAZETTE (@BYRYANWOOD) Ryan Wood covers…...

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MFL10

A Quick Look at The Evolution of Fantasy Points from Receiving

We have often heard that the NFL has become a passing league. While most of us have accepted that we are in a world where drafting Zero RB has become a dominant strategy, I decided to crunch some numbers and see what effect this evolution has had on fantasy receiving output and game over-under lines throughout time…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member?...

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Is David Johnson’s Second Half Performance a Mirage?

I’ll come right out and admit that I prefer the second half of nearly everything to the first. From movies to sporting events to sex, the second half just completely dominates the first. It’s almost a universal constant for me. Is the same true for running backs?… Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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You Can Do Worse than Denver’s Starting QB

Source: Broncos’ Williams: QB job is Sanchez’s to lose | theScore.com “Right now, they’re giving all three of those guys equal reps, so I don’t think either one of them has created any advantage at this point, because they haven’t consistently been with the ones yet,” Williams told SiriusXM NFL Radio. “But I think, going into the camp, I think coach (Kubiak) kind of let…...

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This One Weird Trick Will Make You a Better Dynasty Owner

The “quantified self” is mainstream. We count steps. We track our feelings. We count the number of times our partners say “I love you” – well, most of us don’t, but some of us do. Yet when it comes to fantasy football, a hobby that lends itself to tracking, we’re as self aware as a golden retriever. Sure, Adam Harstad keeps a “fantasy journal” that’s more safe for…...

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2 Value QBs That Drafters Always Seem to Ignore

Dynasty assets come in all shapes and sizes. What seems like a bad Eddie Lacy joke is actually just the reality of how we view players…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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7 Potentially Undervalued Pass-Catching RBs and 2 to Sell

It’s almost impossible not to like Danny Woodhead. He’s one of my favorite reality players, and it’s with no small amount of disappointment that I’m not targeting him in fantasy this season…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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The Thorn in Eddie Lacy’s Rather Large Side

After the disaster that was Eddie Lacy’s 2015 season, it’s hard to believe that the rotund running back is going off the board in the second round of 2016 drafts as RB9. Though the majority of drafters are expecting a bounce back season, prudent owners should really think long and hard before investing significant draft capital into the fourth year back. A SQUANDERED OPPORTUNITY The…...

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At Which Position is ADP Most Predictive of Variance in Fantasy Playoff Scoring?

Whether you’re playing in a major fantasy football tournament or just a friend’s league, Weeks 14-16 simply mean more to fantasy football success than any other weeks in the NFL season…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Betting Against History: One Quarterback Looks Way Overdrafted

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston is being drafted with exceptionally high fantasy expectations for a second-year, 22 year old quarterback in a run-first offense. … Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Brandin Cooks Lacks Top-5 Upside – Nick Underhill (New Orleans Advocate): Saints 2016 Preview, RotoViz Radio

July 20, 2016: RotoViz Radio: A Fantasy Football Podcast (@RotoVizRadio), featuring an interview with Nick Underhill of the New Orleans Advocate and a preview of the New Orleans Saints’ 2016 season. If you’re a listener of the show who isn’t subscribing yet to RotoViz you can get a special 30% subscription discount through the podcast.  Co-Host: Ben Gretch (@YardsPerGretch) Co-Host: Pat Kerrane (@PatKerrane) GUEST: NICK UNDERHILL, NEW ORLEANS ADVOCATE…...

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Applying the Zero RB Strategy to 2016 Auction Drafts

One of the more common questions I see about the Zero RB draft strategy is, “how would this work in an auction draft?”… Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Mock Madness: Using Zero RB To Create A Monster in 2016

When I draft my fantasy football teams, I usually follow the best player available (BPA) approach. Frequently, BPA will morph into Zero RB based on the players on the board, but flexibility is the key…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Is Drafting a Chiefs’ Backup RB Worth the Headache?

Source: Mike Clay on Twitter Adam also said that Spencer Ware should be considered the #2 back, but that both he and C West would play if Charles went down @adamteicher — Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) July 19, 2016 Both Spencer Ware and Charcandrick “Charcnado” West won fantasy teams some matchups (and DFS players some tournaments) in 2015. But fantasy drafters can’t figure out which player is the better handcuff to Jamaal…...

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The (W)Hole Story of Running Back Usage

Running Backs have lost some luster in fantasy circles in recent years. “Zero RB Theorem” proponents abound and it is now entirely possible to see fantasy drafts occur in which a running back isn’t even taken in the first round…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Fantasy Golf: Canadian Open Picks

Welcome to my fantasy golf picks and player writeups for the RBC Canadian Open at Glen Abbey Golf Club. Use this article along with my fantasy golf projections to help set your lineups this week. I covered the important points about the course in my previous article so I will jump right into my Canadian Open picks…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this...

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DFS Contrarian

A Second Look at Second-Half Splits

Charles Kleinheksel recently wrote about the danger of using partial-season splits to predict future performance. He showed that excluding a subset of games — say, the first half of the season — generally makes our predictions worse. That’s good to know, but it doesn’t answer the question of whether it’s useful to look at partial-season splits. Think of each game as a data point. Kleinheksel presented two…...

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Which Players Will Be Fantasy Football’s “Panda”?

If you’ve turned on your radio in the past few months, there’s a very good chance that you’ve heard the song “Panda” by Desiigner. With a thumping beat, and catchy, repetitive lyrics, the song rose to number one on Billboard’s Hot 100 in April…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Situational Production, Player Opportunity and DFS Mistakes: Warren Sharp, SharpFootballAnalysis.com – Numbers Game 61

Episode 61 (July 20th, 2016): The sixty-first episode of The Numbers Game (@NumbersGamePod), an analytics-focused RotoViz Radio powered podcast…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Jordy Nelson Is Back With a Vengeance – Ryan Wood (Green Bay Press-Gazette): Packers 2016 Preview, RotoViz Radio

July 19, 2016: RotoViz Radio: A Fantasy Football Podcast (@RotoVizRadio), featuring an interview with Ryan Wood of the Green Bay Press-Gazette and a preview of the Green Bay Packers’ 2016 season. If you’re a listener of the show who isn’t subscribing yet to RotoViz you can get a special 30% subscription discount through the podcast.  Co-Host: Pat Kerrane (@PatKerrane) Co-Host: Ben Gretch (@YardsPerGretch) GUEST: RYAN WOOD, GREEN BAY PRESS-GAZETTE (@BYRYANWOOD) Ryan Wood covers…...

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MFL10

A Quick Look at The Evolution of Fantasy Points from Receiving

We have often heard that the NFL has become a passing league. While most of us have accepted that we are in a world where drafting Zero RB has become a dominant strategy, I decided to crunch some numbers and see what effect this evolution has had on fantasy receiving output and game over-under lines throughout time…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member?...

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