The first thing we’ll do to get an Upside Ratio is to use the same scale to measure both of our criteria (Sim. Score High Projections and ADP). We are going to use a 0-100 scale, where 0 is the worst or least desired input for each criterion and 100 is the best or most desired input for each criterion.
Criteria #1 – Sim. Score High Projection:
Assume for Sim. Score High Projection, 100 total fantasy points (6.25 per game) is the worst input since that is replacement level talent and 210 total fantasy points is the best input. A projection of 100 total fantasy points gets mapped to the score 0 and 210 total fantasy points gets mapped to a score of 100. To get the scores for the intermediate total fantasy points we will use “proportional scoring”.
For example, RotoViz favorite Marques Colston is roughly 81% of the way from the lowest to the highest value [(188.8-100) / (210-100) = .81, and 100*0.81 = 81%], so Colston gets a score of 81 for his Sim. Score Projection of 188.8 fantasy points.
Remember, we’re trying to map days of attendance onto a scale from 0-100.
Criteria #2 – Average Draft Position:
Now, let’s map ADP onto the same 0-100 scale using the same proportional weighting technique. First we have to set our endpoints of the scale. An ADP of 1 gets a score of 0 and an ADP of 150 (the last pick in a 10-team, 15-round draft) gets a score of 100.
Now, using proportional weighting, the mapping for Marques Colston (ADP of 42) looks like this:
[(42-1) / (180-1) = .23, and 100*0.23 = 23%], so Colston gets a score of 23 for ADP.
Applying an 80-20 weight (I did some back testing to arrive at this ratio) for Sim. Score Projection to ADP, Colston’s Upside Ratio is as follows:
81 (.8) + 23 (.2) = 69.0
Marques Colston has an Upside Ratio of 69.0
Now that you have a better understanding of how we arrived at each individual Upside Ratio, click here to go to the next article in this series.