FUCKING FOOTBALL FINALLY!
Pardon my exuberance, but I’m glad football is finally here. By now you’re busy setting lineups in all of your leagues, so I thought I’d give a quick preview of 2013’s opening game using our newest set of Apps.
The GLSP Apps (Game Level Similarity Projection) are described in detail here, and you can access any of them here. These Apps are designed to help you make league-beating sit/start decisions. Basically, these Apps compare performances by players similar to the selected player, against defenses similar to that player’s opponent. Since there’s no 2013 data on defensive performance yet, these projections likely have a fair bit of wiggle in them; as the season progresses the projections should get more accurate. Also, since there’s no performance data yet on rookies, there are no GLSP projections available for them yet.
This table presents the key fantasy players from the Ravens and Broncos. The first set of columns are the “raw” low, median, and high PPR projections from the GLSP Apps. Following the commentary are revised low, median and high GLSP PPR projections.
The final column just presents the per game PPR projection from our basic Sim Apps. The basic Sim Apps project a player’s fantasy performance by comparing them to the performances of physically similar historical players. The GLSP Apps add in the “against this type of defense” factor. Whether you roll with the low, median, or high projections is up to you; I’m going with the median revised projections.
The App initially liked Welker better than either Thomas or Decker, but my revised projections disagree. And in support of all our “late round QB” content, the App likes Flacco just as much as Manning.
Hope you enjoy these projections. If not, make your own!
|Player||Low||Med||High||Comment||Low||Med||High||Sim App High Projection|
|Torrey Smith||3.9||8.3||11.1||Torrey had 4 games with fewer than 4 targets last year. Think he’ll get at least 4 targets against DEN? I do. Bump the Targets filter up to four, and here’s the revised projection.||3.9||10.2||17.7||14.5|
|Ed Dickson||0||3||7.6||Dickson wasn’t targeted much last year. Bump the target filter to 3, and here’s the revised projection.||2||3.9||12.6||4.8|
|Ray Rice||7.1||11.4||20.1||If you’ve got him, you’re starting him. Rice averaged 3 rec/g last year, and the defenses in the Matchup Summaries allowed RBs like Rice an average of 22.7 carries for 84 yards, with another 31 yards receiving. Right there is 14 points. Eliminate his 3-touch week 17 game, and here’s the revised projection.||7.1||11.4||20.1||20.1|
|Bernard Pierce||1.4||2.7||4.8||Outside of weeks 16 & 17, only twice had more than 10 touches/game. Could be used more this year, but let’s wait and see. Here’s the revised projection, based on a max of 10 touches.||1.6||2.7||7.8||13.6|
|Joe Flacco||11.4||17.5||20.8||I’m pretty sure Flacco will pass more than the 8 times he did in week 17 last year. Eliminating that game gives us this revised projection.||12.8||18.3||22.2||21.3|
|Knowshown Moreno||11.2||14.6||20.6||Wow, that’s a sizable projection. Recent word is that Moreno will start though, so may be realistic. If you’re pessimistic, drop his projected touches to 25 to get this revision.||5.9||8||13.3||16.6|
|Wes Welker||13.1||21.6||25.7||Damn. GLSP loves Welker. He had 11 games with more than 10 targets last year. If you cap his targets at 10 to account for the chance that Manning spreads the ball around more evenly, here’s the revised projection.||8.5||14||18.4||15|
|Eric Decker||9.5||14.8||20.6||If you toss out the two games he had less than 5 targets, here’s his revised projection.||11||18.2||21.6||15.7|
|Demaryius Thomas||12.1||17.6||26.9||Can 3 WR from one team really score this many FP in one game? I don’t know, but if you toss out the game wherein Thomas was only targeted twice, his projection jumps to these revised levels.||11.7||20.1||29.5||17.6|
|Peyton Manning||14.2||18.4||24.5||The BAL defense has changed since last year. It could actually be better. Defenses from the GLSP App allowed an average QB line of 21/35, 240 yards, and 1 TD. I think Manning will best that, but let’s limit his attempts to 35 just to see what happens.||13.9||18.4||23.7||22.2|