We’ve spent a lot of time prognosticating this offseason. We’re still confident in most of our calls. Some…not so much. As training camp approaches, our staff took some time for quiet reflection and identified the calls we’re most afraid will be wrong. Martavis Bryant Some part of my trepidation over my Martavis Bryant article from earlier in the off-season is inherent to a player like Bryant. He’s probably a boom bust receiver. He scores his fantasy points on a small number of high risk high reward plays so it’s more than possible that he could string together a long series…...

Russell Wilson, QB Contract talks between Wilson and the Seahawks seem to have broken down. Popular opinion suggests Seattle has two options: pay him a market-level contract, or use the franchise tag. I humbly suggest there’s a third option: YOLOQB! Here’s how our own Editor-in-chief describes the strategy: …there aren’t enough pocket passing QBs to supply an entire professional football league…NFL teams should just say eff it and refuse to play that game. Instead, they should load up on running QBs and install a full read option with zero concern for the health of the QBs involved. But I’m not talking about…...

In real life, I sometimes have to hire – or fire – people. It’s not personal, it’s business. To keep track of the comings and goings, our corporate HR department tracks annual employee turnover using a simple formula: Separations / Total Positions = Turnover Rate I thought I’d apply the same formula to dynasty fantasy football to see which positions are the most stable. Up next: Running Backs. See the first installment in this series for more background. Running Back Turnover The quarterback and tight end reviews were straightforward, but here’s where we get the first real surprise, at least to me. Remember,…...

In real life, I sometimes have to hire – or fire – people. It’s not personal, it’s business. To keep track of the comings and goings, our corporate HR department tracks annual employee turnover using a simple formula: Separations / Total Positions = Turnover Rate I thought I’d apply the same formula to dynasty fantasy football to see which positions are the most stable. Up next: Tight Ends. See the first installment in this series for more background. Tight End Turnover1 TE1 N of new TEs  Turnover Rate Repeat Pct 2010-2011 5 41.7% 58.3% 2011-2012 8 66.7% 33.3% 2012-2013 7 58.3% 41.7% 2013-2014…...

In real life, I sometimes have to hire – or fire – people. It’s not personal, it’s business. To keep track of the comings and goings, our corporate HR department tracks annual employee turnover using a simple formula: Separations / Total Positions = Turnover Rate I thought I’d apply the same formula to dynasty fantasy football to see which positions are the most stable. Up first: Quarterbacks. To keep the analysis simple, I’ll assume our “business” is a perfectly drafted 12-team league with a very simple starting roster: 1 quarterback, 2 running backs, 2 wide receivers, and 1 tight end. Therefore, there…...

The Dynasty App offers a number of useful features, among them the ability to review dynasty startup ADP and spot situations to exploit, or avoid. Here are 10 players to avoid at their current ADPs, and some recommendations for alternate selections. While I’m writing in the context of a dynasty start up, many of these thoughts apply to redraft leagues as well. Scoring is PPR. Quarterback Matthew Stafford – QB 6 When I said I liked Stafford at a cheaper ADP, QB6 isn’t what I had in mind. We project Stafford to finish as QB12 this year, scoring just a point/game more…...

Amari Cooper was the first wide receiver selected in this year’s NFL draft, and expectations are high for his rookie season. Team RotoViz likes Cooper a lot as well – perhaps too much. Here’s our staff composite projection for Cooper’s rookie season. Player Proj Finish FP Tar Rec Yds YPR TD Amari Cooper WR18 226.6 132 82 1019 12.5 6.6 On the surface, that seems like a reasonable projection. But let’s dig in. Here are four reasons why we might be expecting too much from him. 1. Have we entered a new era, where rookie WRs can routinely top 1000 yards, or is history…...

Cheap pass catchers. It’s what Dire Straits was really singing about. Here’s a quick rundown of some wide receiver values, courtesy of the ADP Arbitrage App. Vincent Jackson vs. Marques Colston I’ve been waiting for Colston to reach the end of the line for a while now, but he’s so cheap he’s become a good investment. Our staff projections have them finishing within a few points of each other (187 for Jackson, 182 for Colston); so take the massive ADP discount and the better QB situation. That ain’t workin’. That’s the way you do it. Roddy White vs Anquan Boldin Another…...

Jared Abbrederis is on the roster bubble, in part because Jeff Janis is “way ahead of him.” Might want to acquire Janis if your bench has room. If you look at all the non-Jordy Nelson, non-Randall Cobb receivers in Green Bay, Janis looks to be the best of the bunch. Player Ht Wt 40 SpdScore Explosion msRECYDS msTDs TD/G Jeff Janis 75 219 4.42 115 160.5 0.45 0.45 1.2 Davante Adams 73 212 4.56 98 162.5 0.34 0.49 1.8 Jared Abbrederis 73 195 4.5 95 147.5 0.42 0.32 0.5 Ty Montgomery 72 221 4.55 103 161.5 0.24 0.18 0.3 I know, Davante Adams…...

As both the NFL and fantasy seasons are on summer vacation, I thought I’d take a quick look at some deep sleeper wide receivers that might, maybe, possibly, have some fantasy relevance later. Odds are against these players; think of this exercise as updating your emergency waiver claim lists. To get an opportunity, these players would need to flat-out dominate in training camp, or benefit from an injury or implosion to a player ahead of them. To keep it simple, I’m going to look at two of the teams with the most available receiving targets, and then sift through the candidates with the lowest…...