Top 10 Takeaways from Week 15: The QB Opportunity Report

Tony Romo

The idea of these reports is to leverage the fantastic Fantasy Efficiency App to give us some sense as to which players are producing more (or fewer) fantasy points than expected based on their usage.

Terms you’ll need to know.

paEP- The amount of expected points from a quarterback given their opportunity.
paFPOE- The amount of fantasy points scored over expected. Calculated by subtracting the paEP from the actual amount of fantasy points scored.
paFPOEA- The amount of fantasy points scored over expected per attempt. Calculated by dividing the paFPOE by passes attempted

Let’s take a look at some notable Week 15 performances.

  • Total quarterback efficiency was low again in Week 15. This week saw only three passers reach double-didgit paFPOE but unlike last week, not one QB for the entire week hit the 20-point paEP mark. So while efficiency was down, so was opportunity in Week 15. There were also eight QBs with a -5 paFPOE or worse, the most all season.
  • This week’s most valuable performance came from Tony Romo. This has been Romo’s most efficient year of his career.  Through 15 weeks, Romo’s 105.14 paFPOE is the most of his career in which he started the first 14 games. Conversely, his paEP of 148.38 is the second lowest.  Romo is now third in paFPOE on the season and is the most efficient passer on the season on a per-attempt basis.1 He has a decent match up in Week 16, but he has the third best match up of Week 17 according to the Buy Low Machine.
  • Aaron Rodgers had his worst week of the season in Week 15. It was only the second time all season that Rodgers had a negative paFPOE. You can start him with ease this week in your fantasy championships 2 as he has a top 10 match up from the Buy Low Machine.
  • After Colt McCoy left the game with an injury that landed him on IR, the door is open for Robert Griffin III to return. RG3 played decent in relief with the ninth most valuable passing performance of the week. Griffin also rushed five times and performed above expectation there as well. He has excellent match ups the next two weeks and could be considered a streaming option, although if you’re still playing meaningful games you probably have better options.
  • The much anticipated first start for Johnny Manziel left much to be desired. While Rodgers and Shaun Hill both had lower paFPOE than Johnny, they both had high paEP. In fact Johnny’s  -5.81 paFPOE overcame his 5.01 paEP and he scored negatively. I stated last week that the value would be in his legs and I was wrong again. JFF had five attempts but only a 1.84 ruEP and failed to perform to expectation. Good match ups coming, but didn’t show enough to trust him over the final weeks.
  • Derek Carr posted this weeks most opportunity while he also posted a season high in pass attempts. Unfortunately, Carr was unable to take advantage and posted a -5.39 paFPOE. On the season, the rook has the seventh most pass attempts of all QBs and the 14th most paEP and is performing just barely over expectation.
  • Making his second start of the season, Derek Anderson had the second most opportunity of the week and performed just slightly below expectation. With the combination of  Cam Newton returning to practice and the remaining schedule, Anderson may not be the best streaming option.
  • Peyton Manning continues to struggle by his standards as he was just outside the top 10 in opportunity this week and just barely scored over expectation. The struggle seemed to have started right after a week 11 loss to the Rams and I went into more detail last week.
  • A couple of streaming options that had top 4 paFPOE weeks in Week 15 were Alex Smith and Eli Manning. Over the final two weeks both have favorable schedules. Smith ranks fourth according to the Buy Low Machine and is a top streamer this week according to our Patrick Kerrane. Eli ranks eighth with the third best Week 17 match up if your league happens to go that long.
  • The Efficiency Tiers would look like this; Tier 1: Andrew Luck, Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo, Peyton Manning; Tier 2: Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady; Tier 3: Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco.

  1. Minimum 100 pass attempts  (back)
  2. not that you wouldn’t anyway  (back)