Using the Cheat Sheet Calculator and MFL10 ADP, I generated a set of players to target – and avoid. My criteria were simple. I searched for quarterbacks and tight ends drafted in the top 12 at their position, and running backs and wide receivers in the top 24. From there, I identified the three players at each position with the biggest discrepancy – either good or bad – between their ADP rank and projected positional finish. Up next, tight ends.
Jason Witten might be old, but here’s how to think about him. Witten and Austin Seferian-Jenkins are drafted within a few picks of each other. Are you more confident that Witten can average over 10 PPR points/game – something he’s done eight straight years, and 10 of the past 11 – or that ASJ can average over eight points/game – a 33 percent increase from his per game average last season. One more thought to consider: Witten has missed one game in 12 seasons. ASJ missed seven last year.
We like Julius Thomas relative to his ADP. Jacksonville is no Denver, but given what they paid for Thomas’ services, it’s reasonable to assume he’ll be a featured part of the offense. Still, he has basically the same projection as Witten, but needs to be drafted two rounds earlier.
Who cares that Delanie Walker didn’t break out until he went to Tennessee. With Justin Hunter possibly missing time, Walker could be an even bigger part of the Tennessee offense next season. Last year he was the fifth-most targeted TE in the NFL, while also finishing number 11 in per-target efficiency.1
By drafting Zach Ertz three rounds earlier than Witten, you can get a player who projects to score about a point/game less, who faces playing time competition from another TE, and who was only about half as efficient on a per-target basis.
Drafters seem to think that Martellus Bennett will reprise Julius Thomas’ performance under coordinator Adam Gase. Except Jay Cutler is no Peyton Manning. On the other hand, Bennett has been fairly consistent. I probably like him to finish somewhere between his positional ADP and projected finish.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins seemed to show more in his rookie season than either Jace Amaro or Eric Ebron. But there’s still plenty to not like about his 2015 prospects.
- For TEs with 50+ targets. (back)