Fantasy Golf Projections – Fedex St. Jude Classic

Welcome to a fresh installment of my fantasy golf projections on RotoViz. The projections have outperformed DraftKings pricing and Las Vegas odds. Here are my fantasy golf projections for the Fedex St. Jude Classic.

Upgraded Methodology

I’ve given a full rundown of my full methodology in the past. The most heavily weighted factor in my model is a golfer’s normalized and field strength adjusted golf score. I use a parameterized model to simulate the outcome of the tournament. The projections have been back tested and now tested in real time for the past five weeks.

I have added two enhancements:

  1. Course History – I have adjusted player parameters based on course history. I used normalized and field strength adjusted strokes above expectation. If a golfer has under or outperformed his expected scores at TPC Southwind in the past, his expected score is adjusted accordingly. I also weighted course history according to the number of past rounds played, i.e. more rounds played leads to a more credible effect and a heavier weighting. There is a lot of talk about how courses fit certain players in the fantasy golf community. In my research, course history does the best job of capturing this phenomenon, although it is not the only way to do it. A full discussion is beyond the scope of this article.
  2. Recent Performance There is good evidence that recent performance has a small but measurable effect on current performance. Long term performance is still a better predictor and is weighted more heavily in my model. I used strokes gained off the tee and strokes gained on approach shots to capture a player’s recent form. Strokes gained data on tee and approach shots has the benefit of removing the effect of scrambling and putting which are the least repeatable and most “lucky” shots. Again I used the shots above or below expectation to adjust parameters, i.e. if a player did better than expected, I subtracted shots from his expectation for this tournament.

The enhancements above reduce error (measured by mean absolute deviation) by about 15 percent in back testing. They should improve our results going forward.

As usual, the projections are what will happen on average. Therefore the winning score will likely be much lower than Phil Mickelson’s projected -6.23, probably somewhere around -13. Almost by definition the winner of the tournament will score better than his average. I projected each player’s final score to par, number of DraftKings points scored, percent chance to make the cut and percent chance to win. The ‘Value’ column is based on the number of fantasy points per dollar of salary.

The projections are below, if you would rather work with a Google spreadsheet, click here.

Phil Mickelson-6.2382.470.9070.155113007.29
Dustin Johnson-4.6277.150.8910.091128006.02
Brooks Koepka-3.4671.810.8630.062111006.46
Gary Woodland-3.1369.880.8440.058104006.72
Colt Knost-1.7261.820.7980.03397006.37
Charles Howell III-1.5561.240.8130.02194006.51
Ryan Palmer-1.1461.060.8360.007108005.65
Daniel Berger-0.8659.560.7870.013101005.89
Harris English-0.7558.90.7710.01599005.95
Scott Stallings-0.4458.680.7080.03571008.26
Retief Goosen-0.9658.620.760.02576007.71
Kyle Reifers-0.0955.60.7670.00592006.04
Ben Crane-0.2155.550.7220.01870007.93
Bud Cauley0.0155.220.7470.00872007.67
David Hearn-0.0354.50.730.01284006.48
Fredrik Jacobson0.0854.470.7350.00970007.78
Jason Gore0.6253.850.6790.01459009.12
Fabian Gomez0.6353.820.6640.02572007.47
Luke List0.7353.820.7150.00466008.15
Francesco Molinari0.3152.360.7250.00881006.46
Chad Campbell0.5151.650.710.00778006.62
Martin Laird1.1351.610.731063008.19
Tim Wilkinson0.6151.510.6840.01472007.15
Harold Varner1.3151.380.6490.00975006.85
Tom Hoge1.3350.990.6360.01779006.45
Steve Stricker150.650.7290.00175006.75
Seung-yul Noh1.4250.50.6330.01272007.01
Sung-hoon Kang1.5250.450.6310.0162008.13
Camilo Villegas1.4150.420.6280.01669007.3
Vaughn Taylor1.3650.390.6880.00169007.3
Ben Martin1.4850.20.6780.00176006.6
Wesley Bryan0.6550.110.6230.00190005.56
Alex Cejka1.1949.90.722067007.44
Cameron Tringale1.2349.820.6560.00873006.82
Russell Henley1.5949.760.6640.00285005.85
Will Wilcox1.5849.570.6290.01274006.69
Boo Weekley1.7149.10.5990.02180006.13
Kyle Stanley1.7248.960.666065007.53
Scott Brown1.5448.840.640.00671006.87
Graeme McDowell1.5648.70.6470.00382005.93
Hudson Swafford1.9948.470.6150.00474006.55
Jason Bohn1.5648.390.6350.00673006.62
Cameron Percy1.7348.270.6220.00868007.09
Andrew Loupe2.1348.250.5980.00565007.42
Troy Merritt1.9248.090.5990.01271006.77
Hiroshi Iwata2.2847.030.5780.01366007.12
Bronson Burgoon2.0546.990.6130.00362007.57
Lee McCoy2.2746.90.570.01967007
Jon Curran1.646.860.6470.00483005.64
Robby Shelton2.146.680.60.00667006.96
Andres Romero2.4546.540.5730.00458008.02
Martin Piller2.6146.270.5650.00577006
Stewart Cink2.2345.850.6050.00261007.51
Aaron Baddeley2.4645.750.611065007.03
Cameron Smith2.2245.740.6090.00268006.72
Dawie Van Der Walt2.4945.610.5690.00758007.86
Tyrone van Aswegen2.4445.510.5910.00257007.98
Si Woo Kim2.4144.890.5870.00369006.5
Blayne Barber2.9444.220.5570.00266006.7
Jamie Donaldson2.6343.690.602078005.6
Matt Jones2.8143.290.573077005.62
John Merrick2.8743.250.5560.00362006.97
Scott Pinckney2.843.020.57064006.72
Chesson Hadley3.2642.930.5260.00262006.92
David Toms2.5842.840.61076005.63
Jerry Kelly2.6142.750.580.00273005.85
Robert Garrigus3.4742.620.5050.00270006.08
Michael Thompson3.2242.390.5280.00470006.05
Padraig Harrington2.9442.370.565069006.14
Jeff Overton3.2142.090.5310.00259007.13
Brian Davis3.2642.070.5320.00356007.51
Stuart Appleby2.9742.060.550.00157007.38
Henrik Norlander341.690.557065006.41
Johnson Wagner2.9641.680.5550.00162006.72
Zac Blair2.841.60.560.00268006.11
Wes Roach3.641.540.5040.00258007.16
Steve Marino3.5741.530.5020.00266006.29
Michael Kim3.3641.520.5110.00568006.1
Mark Hubbard3.0741.380.5410.00159007.01
Greg Owen3.6341.040.5030.00364006.41
George McNeill3.8140.610.490.00568005.97
Arjun Atwal3.6140.550.50.00460006.75
Brett Stegmaier3.2140.520.539055007.36
Morgan Hoffmann3.93400.4740.00161006.55
Rob Oppenheim3.9639.830.4810.00257006.98
Derek Fathauer3.8139.80.479058006.86
Thomas Aiken3.3839.770.519075005.3
Ernie Els3.7239.720.4870.00269005.75
Billy Hurley III3.4539.590.515058006.82
Justin Hicks3.9439.580.4780.00565006.09
Justin Leonard3.2639.420.528063006.25
Tyler Aldridge3.6639.220.4950.00464006.12
Bobby Wyatt3.8639.170.4740.00373005.36
Steve Wheatcroft4.1738.680.4540.00157006.78
Mark Wilson3.4138.610.522061006.33
Kelly Kraft3.6638.490.491057006.75
Rod Pampling3.4338.330.517059006.49
Meen Whee Kim3.7438.180.491066005.78
Scott Langley3.78380.481056006.78
Brian Stuard3.6337.990.494060006.33
J.J. Henry3.637.870.504063006.01
Brice Garnett4.0337.870.4660.00263006.01
Billy Mayfair4.1637.620.4580.00154006.96
Ken Duke4.6137.450.4390.00565005.76
Carlos Ortiz4.7437.070.404061006.07
Sam Saunders4.4636.970.4350.00157006.48
Alex Prugh4.1436.950.445063005.86
Derek Ernst4.3136.860.445064005.76
Will MacKenzie4.536.860.4330.00166005.58
Luke Guthrie4.4136.690.432064005.73
Shaun Micheel4.2936.560.4550.00155006.64
Joe Affrunti5.1736.360.4080.00559006.16
John Rollins4.735.690.4190.00158006.15
Chad Collins4.2135.650.449067005.32
Tom Gillis4.4135.160.424063005.58
Peter Malnati4.3534.930.44054006.47
Shawn Stefani4.9634.840.4010.00167005.2
Carl Pettersson4.9134.680.403060005.78
Andres Gonzales5.0334.510.385063005.47
D.A. Points4.8734.270.388059005.8
Loren Personett5.334.010.369055006.18
Hayden Springer5.4333.910.359056006.05
Philip Barbaree5.5933.910.359054006.28
D.J. Trahan5.0333.680.385059005.7
Miguel Angel Carballo5.0433.430.367060005.57
Marc Turnesa4.7933.210.387055006.03
Brendon de Jonge4.7632.530.371064005.08
Steve Flesch5.5432.410.344058005.58
Erik Compton5.4131.80.34061005.21
Wes Homan4.9431.570.366058005.44
Richard H. Lee5.0831.430.368055005.71
Frederick Janneck5.5431.140.363054005.76
Rhein Gibson5.4130.610.33055005.56
Andrew Landry4.8529.770.309058005.13
Richard Sterne6.2829.470.306071004.15
Tim Herron5.6328.950.296056005.17
Abraham Ancer5.7228.060.256056005.01
Robert Allenby7.1127.940.265054005.17
Frank Lickliter II6.6227.840.238056004.97
Trevor Immelman5.6427.350.262054005.06
Ted Purdy5.727.070.222060004.51
Brendon Todd6.0426.810.237061004.39
Lucas Lee726.460.262057004.64
Dicky Pride5.8326.090.211055004.74
Steven Bowditch8.3725.980.204060004.33
Brian Gay5.9725.810.22060004.3
Michael Bradley6.7725.420.215055004.62
Cameron Beckman7.7325.020.205054004.63
Darron Stiles7.0623.720.17057004.16
Darron Stiles6.9923.520.16057004.12
Matthew NeSmith6.2422.780.102064003.55
Matthew NeSmith6.1822.710.097064003.54
D.H. Lee9.1619.960.119056003.56
D.H. Lee9.1119.710.109056003.52

I held on to this article a little longer than usual to wait for news. There have been a number of notable withdrawals from the tournament:  Alex Cejka, Luke Donald, Spencer Levin, Patrick Rodgers and Brendan Steele. Don’t start them on DraftKings. These players all qualified for the US Open via sectional qualifying and no longer need the St. Jude Classic in order to qualify.

I will be back soon with another article detailing which players I like for cash games and tournaments.