This weekend NASCAR heads to New Hampshire Motor Speedway to the 1.058-mile, flat oval. Sunday’s race is 301 laps, meaning it is important to find the likely race dominators. If you don’t get them on your roster, you’ll be behind the eight-ball in the DraftKings NASCAR New Hampshire slate for cash games and will have zero chance at taking down a GPP.
As usual, I give give both my cash and GPP picks, along with my fades and machine learning model projections for this weekend’s contests.
If you’re new to daily fantasy NASCAR, or simply need a refresher, check out the flat track section of my track types article. Brush up on your general GPP strategy and game theory if you want to have a shot at taking down a big GPP. If you’re more of a cash game player, check out how to target high floor drivers and how to identify the race dominator.
DraftKings NASCAR New Hampshire MODEL PROJECTIONS
The model projections I create assume that each driver finishes the race. As a result, these finishing position projections will operate under that assumption.
|Martin Truex Jr.||3||10.84||38.02||21.80||45.73||9300|
|Ricky Stenhouse Jr.||22||16.84||0.05||1.41||33.05||6900|
DraftKings NASCAR New Hampshire CASH GAME PICKS
Kyle Busch ($10,500) – Kyle Busch won the July New Hampshire race last year, and he’ll look to do so again while starting from the second spot. This gives him a great chance to dominate a portion of the race, at one of his best tracks on the Sprint Cup circuit. Kyle has finished in the top two in four of his last six races at NHMS.
Matt Kenseth ($9100) – Of the expensive tier of drivers, Kenseth easily starts the deepest in the field, with a mediocre 18th place qualifying result. That gives Kenseth the highest likelihood of significant place differential among the expensive tier. Kenseth won the fall race at NHMS last year, and was quick in final practice, so he is a must start in cash games.
Greg Biffle ($6600) – Biffle starts in 28th but was 19th in final practice. That means we should see him put up some solid place differential numbers, which is really all you are looking for once you get past the expensive tier of drivers.
Ryan Newman ($7700) – Newman starts 25th making him a good cash game option. He doesn’t have massive upside, because his practice speeds haven’t been anywhere near the top 10, but he still ran the 16th best 10-lap average in Happy Hour, which would be good enough from a place differential standpoint to get it done for your cash game team.
DraftKings NASCAR New Hampshire GPP PICKS
Kevin Harvick ($10,700) – Harvick starts eighth, but I still think he can lead a portion of this race. Harvick has led the most laps at NHMS in two of the last four races, and put up the quickest 10 consecutive laps in Happy Hour. He could be this weekend’s top scorer if he makes it to the front.
Denny Hamlin ($9500) – Hamlin excels at these short, flat tracks and has actually shown some single lap speed this weekend. He’s lacking a bit in the long run speed department, but look for him to be near the front at a couple points during the day with an aggressive start and a top notch pit crew.
Jamie McMurray ($7300) – Jamie Mac starts 19th but put up the 12th best single lap speed in Happy Hour. McMurray is one of five drivers, along with Kenseth, Biffle, Brian Scott, and teammate Kyle Larson, to post practice speeds six spots or more better than their qualifying position in both post-qualifying practice sessions.
DraftKings NASCAR New Hampshire FADES
Joey Logano ($9900) – Logano was nowhere near as quick relative to his competitors in practice as he was in qualifying. Logano practice six and 12 spots worse than his qualifying position in the post-qualifying practice sessions. At $9900, you cannot take on that risk.
Matt DiBenedetto ($5100) – I know it might be tempting to pick a driver this cheap that looks like he may be compeitive this weekend with a great qualifying effort. But DiBenedetto is a much better steep track driver than flat track driver, and his post-qualifying practice times shows that. He was in the 30s in both sessions. Stay away.
RotoDoc holds a Ph.D. in Mathematics and is a two-time qualifier for the DraftKings Main Event, The King of the Speedway. Additionally, RotoDoc has won multiple high paying NASCAR GPPs, including both the $100k and $75k tournaments for the 2016 Sprint Cup opener, The Sprint Unlimited.