The RotoViz DraftKings Play of the Week: Sponsored by FantasyLabs

Last season our team of DFS degens competed to offer the best GPP plays for each week’s DraftKings Millionaire Maker. We’re back at it this year, but with a great twist. FantasyLabs is sponsoring the contest. Our writers will make use of FantasyLabs great tools – Trends, Plus/Minus, Vegas Lines, and more, to offer our best GPP Plays of the Week.

FantasyLabs offers a great selection of DFS tools. Sign up for a FantasyLabs NFL account to get access to all other sports for free. Also, listen to the RotoViz podcast to hear about any special offers from FantasyLabs.

Before we dive into the Week 1 plays, some background. Last year we scored this contest based on how Milly Maker lineups with our recommended players performed. This year we’ll be using FantasyLabs Plus/Minus metric to score our picks. The goal for our individual competitors then, is to recommend players eligible for each week’s Milly Maker slate that will accumulate the highest Plus/Minus. The prognosticator with the best total Plus/Minus at week’s end will pocket a handsome cash prize, courtesy of FantasyLabs and RotoViz. Along the way you, dear reader, will benefit from the recommendations made. Make sure to check out not only the RotoViz Apps, but the suite of FantasyLabs tools, to build your own lineups.

On to the Week 1 Plays of the Week!

AuthorQBRBWRTEDEFCommentary
Ben BauerDerek CarrCharles SimsMichael CrabtreeJulius ThomasBills DefenseMichael Crabtree has the highest ceiling of similarly priced (within $200) wideouts on Fantasy Labs, and in a game where a shootout is realistic, he's $1700 cheaper than Cooper and $2200 cheaper than Cooks, and has a reasonable chance to outscore them both outright, let alone points:salary.
Matt WispeTyrod TaylorSpencer WareSammy WatkinsDwayne AllenSeattleAccording to the FantasyLabs Trends tool, only Tyrod Taylor and Cam Newton averaged 35 or more yards rushing at the QB position over their last 16 games. This trend creates an average boost of 3.25 points over expectation. Taylor is going against Baltimore who allow 1.1 fantasy points over expectation. He is priced as the 13th QB and should produce above that.
Jacob RickrodeMatthew StaffordAmeer AbdullahWillie SneadDwayne AllenDallasSnead is reasonably priced at $4800; 40+ WR are priced higher, and is FantasyLabs second highest rated Upside WR. Get him in a lineup.
Davis MattekAndrew LuckSpencer WareJulio JonesTravis KelceSeattleI tried to avoid eating the chalk here as much as possible; I'll have exposure to all of these players in both tournaments and with Ware/Jones, 100% in cash games. Seahawks against Tannehill are obvious and a big favorite to end the week with a defensive score.
Jason LewisBlake BortlesSpencer WareMarvin JonesDwayne AllenSeattleBortles has the second highest Projected Plus/Minus of the week at 6.8, but comes with a $500 price break off Cam Newton, giving a little more cushion. Versus the Packers has the potential to follow many of Bortles big games in 2015: fall behind early, air it out late. Bortles was number 1 in 2015 in upside percentage at 75 percent, and the potential game script suggests this game could follow suit.
Blair AndrewsJoe FlaccoCharles SimsAllen RobinsonGary BarnidgeGiantsUsing FantasyLabs' Trends tool, we learn that QBs priced under $7000 on DraftKings who are home favorites have historically produced a Plus/Minus of 3.22 with over 63% Consistency. Among players who meet these criteria in Week 1, Joe Flacco is unique in that he also attempted over 41 passes per game last year, including more than 5 per game in the red zone.
George FitopoulosDak PrescottChristine MichaelMarvin JonesJason WittenHoustonBoth the Seahawks and Chiefs are big, home favorites (spread of -7 or better), which according to FantasyLabs' Trends Tool gives RBs a Plus/Minus of 2.64 with 56.4% Consistency. If I'm trying to optimize value I'll take CMike over Ware in a slightly better spot (Seahawks are -10.5) with lower ownership as the added cherry on top.
Anthony AmicoDak PrescottC.J. SpillerTajae SharpeDwayne AllenSeahawksSpiller is my favorite pivot off of Spencer Ware. FantasyLabs has Spiller's projected ownership between zero and one percent, which is great considering the game total (51), spread (-1) and Spiller's involvement with the first team all summer. Over the last three seasons, Saint RBs have AVERAGED about 10 targets per game, and a healthy Spiller is definitely a better pass-catcher than Mark Ingram. There is a significant ceiling here at a cheap price and low ownership.
Devin McIntyreAaron RodgersLatavius MurraySammy WatkinsJared CookGreen BayMorgan Burnett is expected back healthy, Clay Matthews is moving back to outside linebacker, and Blake Bortles led the league in sacks and interceptions last year. This is an ideal matchup for the Packers, but are priced at only $2800. Looking at the FantasyLabs Vegas page we see that the Packers have the 5th highest implied total with 26.25 points, and the 5th highest spread at -4.5. Jacksonville should be under pressure to score, which means plenty of opportunities for the Green Bay defense to make plays.
John SolisRobert Griffin IIIChristine MichaelCorey ColemanDelanie WalkerGreen BayI used the FantasyLabs Stack tool to find an inexpensive QB/WR stack in RGIII and Corey Coleman. I liked what I saw from them in preseason and at bargain-basement prices, I'll be able to afford a Julio Jones-type elsewhere.
RotoDocTyrod TaylorSpencer WareSammy WatkinsDelanie WalkerNew York GiantsI went with the hypothesis that gambling lines are the most inaccurate early in the season. I showed in my first article at RotoViz that in-season it takes 6 games to settle out what we know. In addition I believe DraftKings factors in home/road too much, especially for QBs that are only one possession dogs. I used the FantasyLabs Trends tool to filter low totals (less than 47) for QBs above minimum salary on teams that are one possession, road dogs. Looking at this split for weeks 1-6 yields a Plus/Minus of 3.2 compared to a Plus/Minus of 0.6 in weeks 7-16. Fifteen percent of all QBs in this split went for a Plus/Minus above 10 points, which would put my pick, Tyrod Taylor, at a 28+ point fantasy day. Oh, and this cohort of QBs average 1.5 percent ownership. Stack Taylor and Sammy Watkins together.
Mike BeersMatthew StaffordMark IngramEric DeckerMartellus BennettClevelandEric Decker flies under the radar yet again, with a modest $6,600 price tag and projected ownership under 10%. The only receiver with a 0% "Dud" rate to average over 7.5 fantasy points, he scored 17.1 ppg in 2015 and finished as WR9 by FantasyLabs' Plus/Minus metric. Decker was a high-value target hog in 2015, leading all WRs in opportunities inside the 10-yard line - with Fitzpatrick and Marshall back, I expect that to continue.
Aaron ButlerRobert GriffinLeGarrette BlountCorey ColemanZach ErtzPackersBlount should see 20+ carries vs AZ and that makes him the best RB bargain in Week 1. He could easily double his implied 6.76 points ($3700) even without a TD.
Scott SmithDak PrescottSpencer WareMarvin JonesJulius ThomasPhiladelphiaMarvin Jones seems like a money play for Week 1. Jones has been hyped as the top WR for Detroit all offseason. Add in the fact that Davis is unlikely to play and the potential only goes up. In a game with one of the highest point totals, the FantasyLabs matchup stats show that the Lions will likely be passing in the 4th quarter if they trail.
Tim TalmadgeAndrew LuckTheo RiddickJulio JonesTravis KelceSeahawksAccording to FantasyLabs' data, no Quarterback threw to his RBs more last year than Matthew Stafford (27.9%). The Lions passed 66% of the time when trailing and are the underdogs in what is projected to be a shootout. Theo Riddick is priced at his projected floor and could double that if he hits his ceiling.
Tyler BuecherAndrew LuckSpencer WareJarvis LandryDwayne AllenArizonaThe Colts have the highest-implied team total by Vegas this week at 27.5 and Dwayne Allen should feast against a Detroit team that struggled defending the tight end last year. Detroit allowed the second-highest Plus/Minus to opposing tight ends last year, largely due to their-league leading 12 touchdowns given up to the position in 2015. Possessing a 92 percent Bargain rating on DraftKings, Allen makes for a great play at an affordable cost.
Drew HeinlDak PrescottSpencer WareJulio JonesDelanie WalkerHouston TexansDelanie Walker has 11 FantasyLabs DK Pro Trends. Last year Walker only had one game where he didn't reach his implied point total of 8.18. Besides Harry Douglas he's the only starting receiving option that was on the team last season.
John GambillDerek CarrSpencer WareMichael CrabtreeJared CookPhiladelphia EaglesThe Eagles will return to a traditional 4-3 defense after the Billy Davis experiment ended in disgrace. The front four of Vinny Curry, Connor Barwin, Bennie Logan and Fletcher Cox should apply plenty of pressure. The underwhelming Cleveland receiving corps will not save the often erratic Robert Griffin III. The Browns' offense is the second most favorable matchup as measured by FantasyLab's Opponent's Plus/Minus metric, meaning that they give up a lot of points to opposing defenses.
Matthew FreedmanDak PrescottJames WhiteRishard MatthewsTravis KelceSEAI expect James White in Week 1 to be the guy he was in Games 9-16 last year: Someone who averages 5.5 targets and a stellar +6.84 Plus/Minus per game. White is a cheap $3,600 this week. Per the FantasyLabs Trend tool, when he was comparably priced and impersonating Dion Lewis last year, he averaged an +8.07 Plus/Minus over a five-game sample. One of the highest-rated backs in the Bales Player Model, White should benefit from pass-happy game flow, as the Patriots enter their matchup against the Cardinals as 5.5-point underdogs.
Eric BraunDak PrescottSpencer WareTajae SharpeDelanie WalkerEaglesDak Prescott's FantasyLabs projection includes a ceiling of 30.6 which gives him a chance at a 6X week under his cheap salary. Dak's only one of four quarterbacks with six elite Pro Trends at FantasyLabs. One of my trends I modeled was out of division play by quarterbacks but I treat Dak in the same category as the Giants don't have any familiarity with his game. I always like additional reasons to start a cheaper QB and Dak offers plenty of reasons.
Curtis PatrickDak PrescottEddie LacyJulio JonesDwayne AllenHoustonI think Lacy will be lower owned than similarly priced RBs, but may be in a good spot to outperform them. Last season, the Jags gave up 3.5 more DraftKings points per game to opposing RBs than salary-based expectation, which ranks in the bottom 3 percent of the league (per Fantasy Labs Trends tool).
Nick TassoRobert GriffinJames WhiteTajae SharpeJared CookHouston TexansWith Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm, White will be heavily relied upon.Dion Lewis missed the last eight games of the regular season. In those games, Tom Brady targeted White for an average of 5.5 attempts per game. White has a lot of volatility, as he did see 13 targets in one game, but did see three or less targets in three of those eight games. Using the RotoViz Game Split App, you can see that White has an increase of three more attempts per game in games without Lewis. Fantasy Labs currently has White with a floor of nine, which is something he could easily surpass, as Vegas is really favoring the Cardinals.
Rex WindwoodCarson PalmerChristine MichaelTajae SharpeJulius ThomasCleveland BrownsSomehow a guy who averaged 20 FP per game last year has been completely overlooked. FantasyLabs has Palmer with the 5th highest ceiling this week. QBs with ceilings over 30 on DK produce at 2.6 points above expectation. This, combined with his expected low ownership, equals money $$$.
Shawn SiegeleDak PrescottSpencer WareWillie SneadJared CookBrownsSnead plays in a game tied for the highest over/under (51.5) and owns FantasyLabs' No. 1 Player Rating at the WR position (94%). He had a better 2015 ANYA than the much more expensive Brandin Cooks (10.4 to 10.0), not to mention a better big play percentage (14.9 to 14.0).
Ben GretchDak PrescottMark IngramMarvin JonesDelanie WalkerClevelandMark Ingram had 50 catches in 12 games last season, catching at least two balls in each game and at least three 10 times. The Saints had the seventh highest percentage of points scored through rush TDs in 2015, while the Raiders conceded the seventh lowest percentage of points against through pass TDs. Ingram has the third most FantasyLabs Pro Trends in his favor among RBs, including target and red zone opportunity trends. He should be involved through the air if this game turns into a shootout, and could find paydirt on the ground.
Pat KerraneJameis WinstonSpencer WareJulio JonesZach ErtzPhiladelphiaAccording to FantasyLabs' projected ownership, Jameis Winston will be just 2-4% owned this week. That's likely due to the assumption that the Buccaneers will be run based in 2016, like they were in 2015. But Dirk Koetter has been decidedly pass heavy as a coordinator, and this team will likely trend toward the pass with him as the Head Coach and with Winston now in his 2nd year. I see shootout potential here and love Winston at his price.

Frequency Table

QBCOUNTRBCOUNTWRCOUNTTECOUNTDEFCOUNT
Dak Prescott9Spencer Ware11Julio Jones5Dwayne Allen6Seattle6
Andrew Luck3Christine Michael3Marvin Jones4Delanie Walker5Cleveland4
Derek Carr2Charles Sims2Tajae Sharpe4Jared Cook4Houston4
Matthew Stafford2James White2Sammy Watkins3Julius Thomas3Philadelphia4
Robert Griffin2Mark Ingram2Corey Coleman2Travis Kelce3Green Bay3
Tyrod Taylor2Ameer Abdullah1Michael Crabtree2Zach Ertz2Giants2
Aaron Rodgers1C.J. Spiller1Willie Snead2Gary Barnidge1Arizona1
Blake Bortles1Eddie Lacy1Allen Robinson1Jason Witten1Dallas1
Carson Palmer1Latavius Murray1Eric Decker1Martellus Bennett1Buffalo1
Jameis Winston1LeGarrette Blount1Jarvis Landry1
Joe Flacco1Theo Riddick1Rishard Matthews1
Robert Griffin III1