Week 5 Quarterback Streaming: Three to Target and One to Avoid

Through four weeks, our top two quarterback streaming slots are still producing QB1 numbers, and the desperation third slot is plugging along as a low-end QB2. 

Woo, how about that Brian Hoyer call last week! That was the stuff, right there. The rest was shit, but that Hoyer call — pure gold. Trevor Siemian looked like a good call too before injuring his shoulder. He and Paxton Lynch combined for 17.1 FanDuel points. And when you’re streaming QBs, sometimes you take the moral victories because they’re the only ones available. Also, Ryan Tannehill was a stupid call, everyone told me it was a stupid call, and I promise not to do that more than like seven or eight times for the rest of the season.

StatusQBFanDuel PointsQB Rank
Option 1Ryan Tannehill8.630
Option 2Brian Hoyer19.87
Option 3Trevor Siemian6.732
AvoidEli Manning9.428

Despite that minor train wreck, we’re still clinging on to QB1 production in the first two streaming slots. That’s more than I promised when we started this journey, and it’s probably more than you’re going to get in the end, so enjoy it while it lasts.

StatusFanDuel PPGSeason-long rank
Option 119.210
Option 220.08
Option 314.524

This is a get-well week for streaming, so let’s build a cushion I can fritter away later.

Option 1: Carson Wentz @ Detroit

Rostered: 34.4 percent
Spread: -2.5
O/U: 46

I told you this one was coming. Hopefully you planned ahead. Among QBs who have played at least three games, Wentz ranks 11th with 17.6 FanDuel points per game. And his “real football” numbers are even better: he ranks fourth with 8.5 adjusted yards per pass attempt and third with 8.0 net adjusted yards per attempt.

The Lions have been a cake matchup, surrendering 24.8 FanDuel points per game, second only to the Falcons. They’ve also allowed the second-highest adjusted yards per attempt and the seventh-highest net adjusted yards per attempt. Last week, they were humbled by a Bears passing attack that featured Eddie Royal as the leading receiver.

Toss in an implied team total of 24.25, and this is a no-brainer.

Option 2: Paxton Lynch (Trevor Siemian) v. Atlanta

Rostered: 0.8 percent
Spread: -7
O/U: 48

If you treat “Broncos QB” as a single player, they’ve averaged 17.4 FanDuel points per game, which would rank 16th among actual QBs, just behind Philip Rivers. The uncertainty here isn’t ideal, but with both players widely available (and other good options available too), you can afford to grab Lynch now and add Siemian later if necessary.

This maneuvering is worthwhile because whoever plays will face perhaps the best QB matchup in football right now. The Falcons have allowed three top-6 QB performances, and the only reason they haven’t allowed four is Cam Newton‘s Week 4 injury. Newton and Derek Anderson combined for 30.5 FanDuel points, which would have been good for QB3 on the week. If you treat “QBs playing against Atlanta” as a single player, they’ve averaged 27.2 FanDuel points per game — a smidge behind Matt Ryan‘s league-leading 27.4 and comfortably ahead of any other QB.

Option 3: Brian Hoyer @ Indianapolis

Rostered: 3.9 percent
Spread: +5
O/U: 47.5

You know it’s a good week for streaming when the Colts are the stingiest defense to choose from.

I noted last week that Hoyer averaged 17.1 FanDuel points per complete game in 2015. In 2016, he’s averaging 19.1 FanDuel points (equivalent to QB10) in two complete games. That’s going to come down to earth, but maybe not this week. The Colts have allowed 18.9 FanDuel points per game and have surrendered two top-6 weeks.

Kevin White and Alshon Jeffrey are banged up, but that didn’t stop Hoyer last week, as Royal and Zach Miller picked up the targets and production.

Avoid: Matthew Stafford v. Philadelphia

Rostered: 90.8 percent
Spread: +2.5
O/U: 46

Avoiding Stafford went so well last time that I can’t help but try my luck again. This time, though, they’re facing what appears to be a good defense. Through three games, the Eagles haven’t surrendered a top-24 QB performance, and they’ve allowed just 8.2 FanDuel points per game. They’re allowing just 5.5 adjusted yards per attempt, and they haven’t given up a QB touchdown, rushing or passing. Sure, they beat up on Robert Griffin, but they also stymied Ben RoethlisbergerJay Cutler, and Hoyer (in a limited appearance).

Stafford is still the QB7, and I wouldn’t drop him for Hoyer or Lynch. But I’m betting against a top-12 performance this week.