After Week 12, these are the players I’m fading for the rest of 2016.
Most redraft trade deadlines have since passed. Instead of focusing on selling high, I’m going to highlight three players that I feel won’t help you make the playoffs or win in the playoffs.
Maybe you’re fighting in Week 13 to make the playoffs. Maybe you’ve locked up a playoff spot. Even better, maybe you’ve secured a Week 14 bye. Here are some players that have an exceptionally poor three-week window and I wouldn’t want to rely on any of them regardless of my situation.
After Week 9, I took a stab at a Packer wide receiver to fade down the stretch. A combination of their horrendous schedule and multitude of pass catchers signaled that someone was bound to miss expectations. Turns out I should have picked Cobb over Davante Adams.
Adams has taken off since his 16-target Week 7 performance against the Bears. I expected, incorrectly, that Cobb would regain his double-digit targets when he returned from the hamstring injury that caused him to miss Week 8.
Adams’ complete 180 in 2016 has made him a serious weapon for Aaron Rodgers and marginalized Cobb’s role in the offense. The Packers face the Texans, Seahawks and Vikings in three of their next four games. It will be tough to willingly insert Cobb in your playoff lineups without the target volume we’re used to seeing.
I get it. Opportunity trumps ability at the running back position. Kelley has taken full advantage of his situation.
Volume can only carry you so far, though. At some point you have to consider the opponent. Kelley’s remaining schedule is not what you want to see heading into the playoffs. The Cardinals are allowing the fewest points to RBs and Washington’s Week 16 opponent, the Bears, are allowing the third fewest. The Eagles and Panthers are no slouches either. Carolina is allowing fewer than 72 yards per game on the ground.
Kelley will be serviceable but I would strongly consider other options.
I wrote about Allen Robinson after Week 8. I wrote up Robinson due to his struggles, Blake Bortles’ performance, and an eye to the end of the season. Since then, Robinson has actually improved his per-game fantasy output.
Robinson and Lee’s fantasy production the past four weeks has been strikingly similar, which may mean you’re considering Lee as a viable fantasy starter. Lee has a touchdown in the last two games.
Don’t get cute. The Jaguars face the three stingiest pass defenses in the NFL in consecutive weeks. This fade pertains to Allen Hurns as well. No Jag wide receiver is stealing the show in the fantasy playoffs.
I’m tracking production post-sell (abbreviated PS). The first half of the table is how the player fared until I’ve suggested selling. The second half is how they’ve produced from then on. I’ll keep updating the table as the season continues.
|Sell Week||Player Name||Rank||PPR/Gm||EP/Gm||FPOE/Gm||Rank PS||PS PPR/Gm||PS EP/Gm||PS FPOE/Gm|
|4||Rob Gronkowski||TE69 (nice)||1.1||1.2||-0.1||TE2||15.8||9.9||5.9|