We’ve got a five game main slate tonight, with several featuring a large spread or lower then average total. Finding the right players in these sub-optimal games can be tricky, but hopefully these picks can help steer you in the right direction.
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Eric Bledsoe vs Dal- $8,200 on FD, $7,100 on DK
Bledsoe has a really tough matchup here against Dallas, but at only $7,100 on DraftKings he’s just too much a bargain to pass up here. He’s scored at least 37.5 DK points in eight of his last nine games, and has the upside to go for 50.
Tony Parker vs LAL- $4,800 on FD, $4,700 on DK
Parker has been balling recently, and is coming off a game on Tuesday where he finally cracked the thirty-minute barrier. If he can keep up his strong efficiency1 and play additional minutes in a plus matchup against the Lakers, he’s got a chance to really return value at this price tag.
Also Considered- Reggie Jackson @ GSW- $7,000 on FD, $6,900 on DK, Jrue Holiday @ Brk- $6,800 on FD, $7,000 on DK
Dwyane Wade @ NYK- $6,900 on FD, $6,800 on DK
In the 307 minutes he’s played without Jimmy Butler this season, Wade has commanded a 39.3 usage rate and has averaged 1.2 fantasy points per minute.2 Given those numbers and the fact that the Knicks have been the third worst team in the league against opposing shooting guards, Wade looks like one of the top plays of the day regardless of position.
Buddy Hield @ Brk- $4,200 on FD, $4,700 on DK
Buddy Buckets has finally found his footing in the NBA, and he’s made at least three three-pointers in his last four games. As a result he’s playing more minutes, and has scored at least 26 fantasy points in three of those last four games. If the game stays close, he looks like a solid bet to get to the thirty minute threshold, and if he does he makes for an excellent value play.
There’s also a chance Anthony Davis misses this game, and if he does all the Pelicans would get a bump in usage.
Also Considered- Devin Booker vs Dal- $6,100 on FD, $6,200 on DK, Nick Young @ SAS- $4,000 on FD, $3,700 on DK
Kevin Durant vs Det- $10,300 on FD, $9,700 on DK
Small forward is a really weak position in this slate, so paying up for some stability in cash games with Durant makes sense. He’s scored at least 44.5 DK points in nine of his last ten games, so he’s a safe bet to return close to 5x value.
Doug McDermott @ NYK- $3,800 on FD, $4,500 on DK
McBuckets burned a lot of people on Tuesday, which makes him an excellent tournament target for tonight. The Bulls are still down Butler and Nikola Mirotic, which opens the door for McDermott to potentially see upwards of 30 minutes at a much lower ownership percentage.
Also Considered- Bojan Bogdanovic vs NOP- $4,400 on FD, $4,900 on DK (SG Eligible), Tyreke Evans @ Brk- $4,900 on FD (SG Eligible), $4,200 on DK
LaMarcus Aldridge vs LAL- $7,600 on FD, $7,100 on DK
Aldridge missed Tuesday’s contest with an illness, but it looks like he’ll be healthy enough to suit up for this one. If he does, he’s got an awesome matchup with the Lakers, who are currently allowing the second most fantasy points to opposing power forwards. Aldridge has also been red hot recently, scoring at least 36.75 DK points in seven of his last eight games.
Julius Randle @ SAS- $6,600 on FD, $6,600 on DK
Randle has burned me so many times, but I’m going back to the well against the Spurs. Randle’s minutes decreased drastically in his last game, but in response so did his price, so I’m willing to take a gamble that it was just a fluke and not a trend. Prior to his last game he had scored over 40 DK points in four of his last eight games, so he’s got big upside for tournaments at only $6,600.
Also Considered- Kristaps Porzingis vs Chi- $7,900 on FD, $7,200 on DK, Tobias Harris @ GSW- $6,000 on FD, $6,300 on DK
Andre Drummond @ GSW- $8,200 on FD, $7,500 on DK
Centers have dominated Golden State all season, with the latest example coming on Tuesday when Hassan Whiteside had a 26 point, 20 rebound performance against them. Drummond is a similar type of player, and has similar upside if Detroit can hang in there for four quarters.
Robin Lopez @ NYK- $4,100 on FD, $4,000 on DK
Lopez saw a bump in minutes last game with no Mirotic, and responded with 25 fantasy points. The Knicks are also really bad against opposing big men, so Lopez should have another chance to put up a big performance. I think he’s super safe for cash games, and has some tournament upside as well.
Also Considered- Brook Lopez vs NOP- $7,000 on FD, $6,400 on DK, Andrew Bogut @ Phx- $3,700 on FD, $3,400 on DK
That’s it for tonight’s slate. If you have any questions on these plays or any others, feel free to hit me up on twitter @MattLaMarca.
Good luck tonight!