revolutionary tools.  groundbreaking articles.  proven results.

Dynasty Orphan Journal: Everyone’s For Sale

In last week’s installment, I talked about the roster I inherited when I took over an orphaned dynasty football team. I explained how and why I wanted to restructure the roster, and outlined a mindset of aggressively seeking opportunity via trading. Let’s see how my trade offers panned out.

You may recall that I sent around 50 trade offers in the first month of joining the league. That’s about one offer per week per team. In that context, it’s a less overwhelming number, and it turned out to be a fruitful exercise.

I’ve consummated six trades, which we’ll review in a moment. First, some background. This is an Apex Fantasy Football Money League, and one of the unique elements to their format is that trades must have a balanced number of players on each side. So there are no kitchen-sink-full-of-marginal-guys-for-your-stud offers that everybody hates.1 This is a unique rule, but it’s one I’ve learned to appreciate. I’ve found it to be a trading catalyst since there’s a basic template that everyone follows. Draft picks are not subject to that rule, but only current and next-year picks can be traded.

Alright, time for the big reveal.

Before

As a reminder, here’s the roster I’m starting with.

PLAYER  POS
Cousins, Kirk QB
Ryan, Matt QB
Abdullah, Ameer RB
Ajayi, Jay RB
Gore, Frank RB
Murray, DeMarco RB
West, Charcandrick RB
White, James RB
Yeldon, T.J. RB
Boldin, Anquan WR
Cooks, Brandin WR
Gabriel, Taylor WR
Maclin, Jeremy WR
Matthews, Jordan WR
Moncrief, Donte WR
Robinson, Allen WR
Cook, Jared TE
Miller, Zach TE
Santos, Cairo KB
Chiefs, Kansas City DST

Trade No. 1

GAVE: Jay Ajayi, Jared Cook, 1.04

RECEIVED: Isaiah Crowell, C.J. Fiedorowicz, 1.03

COMMENT: I get a more valuable draft pick and a tight end with a higher ceiling. The assets acquired in this trade will help fuel multiple other trades.

Trade No. 2

GAVE: Isaiah Crowell, Anquan Boldin, 3.04

RECEIVED: Theo Riddick, Will Fuller

COMMENT: For the second time, I get rid of a player with no current value by packaging him with one of higher value, and in return get two useful players back.

Trade No. 3

GAVE: Donte Moncrief, 1.03

RECEIVED: Keenan Allen, 1.09, 2.01, 2018 3rd

COMMENT: I’m still partly playing with house money. Allen is definitely a risk, but I think his ceiling is higher than Moncrief’s.

Trade No. 4

GAVE: DeMarco Murray 

RECEIVED: Coby Fleener, 1.10

COMMENT: Another incremental improvement at TE and added a first-round pick. I’m continuing to convert RBs into other assets.

Trade No. 5

GAVE: Ameer Abdullah, C.J. Fiedorowicz

RECEIVED: Mike Wallace, Bilal Powell

COMMENT: Mike Wallace should have every opportunity to post another 1,000-yard campaign. I’m more confident in Powell than I am in Abdullah. Having just acquired Fleener, I no longer needed Fiedorowicz.

Trade No. 6

GAVE: 1.09

RECEIVED: 3.04, 2018 1st, 2018 3rd

COMMENT: I still have one first-round pick this year and now have extra ammo to help facilitate future trades.

Transformation

If we plug all six transactions into the trade calculator, it looks like this.

Parties Players Values Total
My Team Gave Ajayi, Jay MIA + Rookie 4 + Moncrief, Donte IND + Murray, DeMarco DAL/PHI/TEN + Abdullah, Ameer DET + Cook, Jared TEN/STL/GBP/OAK 45 + 42 + 37 + 36 + 23 + 6 189.00
Other Teams Gave Allen, Keenan SDC/LAC + Rookie 10 + Riddick, Theo DET + Fuller, Will HOU + Rookie 13 + Powell, Bilal NYJ + Rookie 17 + Wallace, Mike PIT/MIA/MIN/BAL + Fleener, Coby IND/NOS + Rookie 37 + Rookie 41 50 + 21 + 18 + 18 + 17 + 15 + 14 + 9 + 8 + 4 + 4 178.00

Note that Boldin has no value, and I both traded and acquired 3.04, so I didn’t include them. I valued 2018 picks by applying a one-round discount.2

Here’s how it looks visually. The roster I inherited is on the left; its current state is on the right. Departed (orange) and added (green) players are noted.

apex2

Commentary

  • Losing Ajayi and Murray may not hurt too much. Using the RB Sim App, their combined median projections work out to 26.5 points per game. For Powell and Riddick it works out to 21.4. Frank Gore and James White could also be decent options.
  • There’s a scenario where T.J. Yeldon has some value, but I’ll probably try to move him, along with a pick or another player, to whomever drafts Leonard Fournette.
  • Fleener isn’t great, but he’s better than Jared Cook, and I think there’s potential for a TE1 season.3
  • I’m hopeful Fuller can take a big step forward. His prospect profile and rookie performance are encouraging.
  • I’m excited to have Keenan Allen. Risky? Yes. WR1 potential? Yes. On the flip side, I’m not sure Moncrief is more than a WR3.
  • Wallace is a win-now move, but why not? Alternatively, if I’m not winning, but he’s playing well, he’s a perfect candidate to flip to a contender.
  • I favor players over picks, but I do like using rookie picks to target RBs who can hit the field and make an impact faster than most other players. Those 2018 picks will be used to help bolster my roster near the trade deadline. If I’m not in a position to make a run, then I can hold them or package for other assets.

Conclusion

My roster still has dead weight: an extra quarterback, Charcandrick West, Taylor Gabriel, and Zach Miller. I’ll use them to balance out trades, but if I’m unsuccessful, they’ll be cut candidates when our rookie draft rolls around in a few weeks.

I’m also now along for the Jeremy Maclin free agency tour. He could see a big spike in value, depending on where he ends up. I’d also like package-up from Brandin Cooks or Jordan Matthews. I like both players just fine, but ultimately I want my WR corps to be WR1s and WR2s, not a bunch of WR3s, which is what I think they both could be this year. Overall though, I’m pleased with the first phase of my roster makeover.

  1. Even though you can’t do a straight two-for-one trade, you can sort of do one, by including a currently worthless player on one side of the deal.  (back)
  2. So the 2018 1st came from the eighth place team. If that were a 2017 pick it would be No. 5 overall. Add one round (12 picks) and I valued it as No. 17 overall.  (back)
  3. Our early internal projections have him as TE13.  (back)

recent and related

In case you missed it

Rapid Reaction: Third Round Opportunity Outlook

  What a crazy ride Day 2 of the draft was. I’m exhausted from excitement. The landing spots attained by the high end skill position players in this class is going to make this draft class a force for years to come. The third round will have a more abbreviated

Read More

2019 Dynasty Rookie Rankings and Tiers: Post-NFL Draft Edition

  Post-NFL Draft 2019 Dynasty fantasy football rookie rankings are here! Which rookies hit the trio of strong profile, early draft position, and great NFL landing spot? The RotoViz team has already adjusted their outlook on which players are the best dynasty investments. I’ve drawn in the tiers based on

Read More

Box Score Scout: 2019 NFL Draft First-Round Player Comparisons

  February to April is ruled by Draft Twitter. Countless hot takes, I’m right/you’re wrong, and no middle ground. As always, there were plenty of surprising draft picks, which certainly affects fantasy football value. While the media oftentimes uses the best case scenario for player comparisons, the RotoViz Box Score

Read More

3 Rookie WRs I’m Targeting in Dynasty Leagues After the NFL Draft

  With the NFL Draft in the books, it’s time to turn our attention to dynasty league rookie drafts. Some wide receivers landed in perfect situations while others fell further than expected. With receivers like Hakeem Butler and Kelvin Harmon slipping to Day 3, rookie draft position is in flux. However, some

Read More
Connect
Support

rotovizmain@gmail.com

Sign-up today for our free Premium Email subscription!

© 2019 RotoViz. All rights Reserved.