Each week I break out air yards data to find the wide receivers that stand the best chance to see an increase in their fantasy production.
I’m back from a California fires enforced evacuation. Last week was an good one for the model despite Terrelle Pryor being benched, which put me on the death tilt. It correctly pegged Amari Cooper as a breakout candidate and that made me happy.
This week we see a very interesting name at the top of the list.
- Keenan Allen has seen a ton of volume this year, but he’s underperforming it. This is despite being the WR14 in PPR currently. If you can snatch him away from an owner for, say, Larry Fitzgerald (the current WR 2), that would be a phenomenal swap.
- Adam Thielen is the WR10 on the year in PPR but makes the list because he has zero touchdowns. That is bound to change. Buy if you can, and target him in DFS this and every week until he scores. He is due.
- Demaryius Thomas is in a slump and so is the Denver offense. Still, he had a long catch and run called back due to questionable OPI this week. He’s being targeted and Emmanuel Sanders may miss this week. He’s a solid buy.
- Both Jacksonville starting wide receivers make the list, which tells you more about Blake Bortles than anything. Still, if Leonard Fournette remains sidelined, the Jaguars are going to look to pass and one or both could benefit.
- Zay Jones has a 22 percent catch rate. That’s bananas. If he is an NFL talent – and the NFL seems to think he is – he will regress to the league average.1 Better days are ahead if Buffalo doesn’t completely give up on him, which remains a legitimate concern.
- based on his aDOT of 14 that means around 50 percent (back)