revolutionary tools.  groundbreaking articles.  proven results.

Week 10 Air Yards: The Best Wide Receivers to Buy Low

Each week I break out air yards data to find the wide receivers that stand the best chance to see an increase in their fantasy production.

Last week the hit rate for the model was insane. I do not expect a repeat, but it does go to show there is real signal here. The model is built to uncover the best low-probability plays each week, not to identify the top scorers. The fact that it is doing the latter so consistently has more to do with the inherent volatility in WR performance than anything else. When a guy who is getting opportunity but underperforming it finally produces, it’s usually an explosion of points.

Here’s this week’s list. The out-of-sample r-squared for the model this week (using a four-week rolling per game average for the explanatory variables) is 0.56.

Screen Shot 2017-11-09 at 9.15.32 AM

Notes

  • Devante Parker saw a healthy share of the team’s targets and air yards Week 9, but it is incredibly important to note that the model is using only one game for this forecast. He was out the other three weeks. I still think there is a signal to pay attention to here though. A game with a TD is probably coming.
  • Tyler Lockett is a strong play. With Russell Wilson throwing to him, Lockett is strong in all areas of the field. If he is underproducing his volume, his past performance suggests it won’t be for long.

download

  • I’ve talked about Keenan Allen previously. The Jaguars are a stout defense, but players like Allen who
    • 1) get tons of volume
    • 2) can run away from a defense hash to hash and
    • 3) use deception to get open are not guys you want to sit.
  • Stefon Diggs is still injured. Of all the players on this list (besides Kenny Britt – is he even playing?), Diggs is the one I have the least confidence in. But this isn’t about me or my intuition, it’s about the model. So I trust.

recent and related...

in case you missed it...

16 Stats to Know for DFS in Week 16

Utilizing RotoViz’s suite of creative tools, metrics, and filterable stats (all of which just keep getting better!), I unearthed 16 key stats to help you crush your Week 16 NFL DFS lineups. Vegas lines for Week 16 Reported lines are current as of December 19, 2019.1 LAR @ SF: This

Read More

The 3 and Out: League Wide Expected Points

The 3 and Out uses several RotoViz Apps to uncover significant workload changes; league, team, and player-specific trends; and hidden but powerful statistics. Earlier in the week, Blair Andrews explained why we care about expected points. Today, we’ll take a quick look at 2019 expected points through a league-wide lens

Read More

NFL Week 16 DraftKings Targets: Full Weekend Of Football

It’s fantasy football championship week, and we might as well carry that cash collection spirit over to the DFS side of things. We’ve got a three-game slate on Saturday with three separate island games, and this is a spot to attack. With the earliest game on Saturday likely to have

Read More

FanDuel NFL Cash Plays – Week 16

Championship Week is here. If you aren’t in your league’s big game then The Fantasy Football Ghost has some players for your Week 16 FanDuel cash games. While the last few weeks have been brutal, Week 15 saw a bit of a turnaround for us. It wasn’t quite back to

Read More

DK Buffet Week 16: Key Stats for the Main Slate on DraftKings

When I’m looking into the DFS slate each week, I like to go game by game and identify players or situations that intrigue me. In every game, on every team, there’s a situation that’s relevant for DFS, for either a positive or negative reason. These situations inform us of how

Read More
Connect
Support

rotovizmain@gmail.com

Sign-up today for our free Premium Email subscription!

© 2019 RotoViz. All rights Reserved.