Week 10 Air Yards: The Best Wide Receivers to Buy Low

Each week I break out air yards data to find the wide receivers that stand the best chance to see an increase in their fantasy production.

Last week the hit rate for the model was insane. I do not expect a repeat, but it does go to show there is real signal here. The model is built to uncover the best low-probability plays each week, not to identify the top scorers. The fact that it is doing the latter so consistently has more to do with the inherent volatility in WR performance than anything else. When a guy who is getting opportunity but underperforming it finally produces, it’s usually an explosion of points.

Here’s this week’s list. The out-of-sample r-squared for the model this week (using a four-week rolling per game average for the explanatory variables) is 0.56.

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  • Devante Parker saw a healthy share of the team’s targets and air yards Week 9, but it is incredibly important to note that the model is using only one game for this forecast. He was out the other three weeks. I still think there is a signal to pay attention to here though. A game with a TD is probably coming.
  • Tyler Lockett is a strong play. With Russell Wilson throwing to him, Lockett is strong in all areas of the field. If he is underproducing his volume, his past performance suggests it won’t be for long.


  • I’ve talked about Keenan Allen previously. The Jaguars are a stout defense, but players like Allen who
    • 1) get tons of volume
    • 2) can run away from a defense hash to hash and
    • 3) use deception to get open are not guys you want to sit.
  • Stefon Diggs is still injured. Of all the players on this list (besides Kenny Britt – is he even playing?), Diggs is the one I have the least confidence in. But this isn’t about me or my intuition, it’s about the model. So I trust.

Josh Hermsmeyer

Air yards, Numbers Game, and predictive modeling.
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