Fantasy football waiver wire advice for Week 11 of the 2017 season.
The parameters and assumptions of this weekly waiver wire advice column can be found in the preseason introduction. A big thank you to Eric Moody, who filled in for me last week, and also takes the time to help as many people as possible on our Message Boards and on Twitter.
Week 11 Fantasy Football Waiver Advice
By this point of the season, it’s likely that you’ve got very little waiver wire money left. If that’s the case, make sure to check out Phillip Caldwell’s Dumpster Diving series, which looks at the cheapest of waiver wire options. If you’re still pushing for a championship and have some money left to spend — congratulations. I’ll review the likely waiver candidates by position (availability in ESPN leagues in parentheses), and list them in my order of preference. Hit me up in the comments for detailed questions.
I’ll leave the heavy lifting to Giana Pacinelli, but if you’re streaming the position you may want to consider Ryan Fitzpatrick. He’s available in 74 percent of ESPN leagues, and the Buccaneers have hinted about shutting down Jameis Winston for multiple weeks. Over the rest of the fantasy season (through Week 16), Tampa Bay has the fourth-best fantasy schedule for quarterbacks, and Fitzpatrick will get Mike Evans back next week.
Tyler Kroft (43%)
He garnered six targets and has the fourth-best tight end schedule over the next three weeks. He’s the only TE I’d spend any waiver money on. At least one of the rest should make it through to first-come-first-served.
Austin Hooper (55%)
He’s gotten six targets in three straight games, which could mean he’s settled into a decent role. His rest of season schedule isn’t very good, however.
C.J. Fiedorowicz (95%)
He also earned six targets in his return from injury and should have a decent role going forward. He does have the second-worst schedule over the next three weeks though.
Charles Clay (49%)
The good news is that he returned earlier than expected from injury. The bad news is that the Bills traded for
tight end wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin. The Bills also have a bottom-six TE schedule over the next three weeks.
Vernon Davis (45%)
Eleven targets is a lot. Davis is startable if and when Jordan Reed misses time. After a matchup against the surprisingly tough Saints, Washington gets a pair of favorable TE matchups (NY Giants and Dallas).
Alfred Morris (29%)
Chances are he’s not available but maybe he’ll get dropped, or you’ll be able to get him via trade. Morris didn’t have a great stat line, but he still earned double-digit carries and averaged 4.8 yards per attempt despite the blowout loss. Dallas has a top-six fantasy RB schedule over the next three weeks. If he’s available and you need an RB, I’d spend big.
Latavius Murray (39%)
My timing has been terrible when it comes to the Vikings backfield, but Murray had more rushing attempts than Jerick McKinnon for the third consecutive week. He’s scored two TDs as well, and Minnesota has a top-10 schedule over the next three weeks. Worth a moderate bid.
T.J. Yeldon (96%)
Yeldon appears to be moving ahead of Chris Ivory. His ability to catch passes when Jacksonville is losing, as well as the increased chance that he’s now the direct handcuff to Leonard Fournette, make him an appealing addition. Worth a small bid.
Jamaal Williams (98%)
With an MCL injury for Aaron Jones and a rib injury for Ty Montgomery, Williams could find himself as the Packers top RB. Week 11 against Denver is a tough matchup, but after that Green Bay gets Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, and Cleveland, which are all favorable matchups.
Samaje Perine (94%)
If Robert Kelley’s injury is serious enough to cause him to miss time, Perine is worth a small bid. He’ll still cede passing game work to Chris Thompson, but unlike Kelley, he should be at least somewhat involved as a receiver. Perine’s 25-yard reception in Week 10 exceeds Kelley’s receiving yardage (18) for the entire season. Depending on the injury situations, Yeldon, Williams, and Perine are equally (un)appealing to me. Hopefully the red flags and plethora of potential on waivers keeps the prices low, and you’re able to add one of the three.
Rod Smith (85%)
Smith earned six targets this week. Combine that with Alfred Morris’ history of not catching passes, and Smith starts to look like the passing game option in the Dallas backfield. That could be a useful role, but there’s not a lot to go on here. A small bid for me.
Andre Ellington (85%)
Combine Ellington’s six targets with Adrian Peterson’s history of not catching passes, and it starts to look like Ellington might be back in the mix in Arizona. A bottom-10 RB schedule over the next three weeks dampens the outlook.
Giovani Bernard (80%)
Joe Mixon scored a TD but otherwise wasn’t very impressive. Bernard (prior to Sunday Night Football) was sixth in RB targets this week. It’s hard to tell if the usage will continue and the next matchup (Denver) is tough for RBs.
Theo Riddick (40%)
He scored a TD, but Ameer Abdullah still had far more opportunity. Detroit also has a poor upcoming schedule for RBs. Smith, Ellington, Bernard, and Riddick are all in a similar tier for me, so I wouldn’t overbid on any one of them.
Thomas Rawls (73%)
Good news: Rawls had 50 percent of Seattle’s RB attempts this week. Bad news: that only amounted to 10 carries. On the other hand, Atlanta and San Francisco are two of the best possible RB matchups over the next two weeks. Rawls could fall into a big game if he continues to dominate the touches.
Austin Ekeler (98%)
Ekeler was very involved this week — right until he fumbled deep in his own territory near the end of the game. Hopefully, the coaches don’t punish him for it because he looked very good prior to that. He seems to have moved up the depth chart, and as the likely next man up if Melvin Gordon got injured, he’s got a lot of appeal. Heck, he might even have value on his own. Gordon had eight targets and 16 carries this week, but Ekeler still earned 10 carries and 5 targets. I think he has a higher ceiling than almost anyone else on this list if Gordon goes down, which probably means he should be higher on this list. But his floor is also really low.
Elijah McGuire (85%)
As discussed in previous weeks, he gets decent opportunity whenever Matt Forte or Bilal Powell miss time. Unfortunately for McGuire, Week 11 is his bye. Forte should return by Week 12, and then the Jets have the worst RB schedule over the following three weeks. I’m leaving him on waivers.
Terron Ward (100%)
Worth an add if Devonta Freeman is going to miss time.
Robert Woods (39%)
He’s technically below the 40 percent threshold for this article, but c’mon, if he’s out there, he’s a must-own. He’s only had one game with fewer than five targets and only two games with less than 50 receiving yards. He’s currently the WR13 in PPR leagues (WR18 per-game), and from Weeks 12 through 16 the Rams have the best fantasy schedule for WRs. Woods is the player I want the most this week, regardless of position. Cooper Kupp (48%) could be a decent consolation prize. I’d make a large bid if I need help at the position.
Marqise Lee (58%)
I traded Lee away prior to the season, and I’m regretting it now. He’s got double-digit targets in three of his past four games, is his team’s leading receiver, and has the fifth-best upcoming WR schedule. He’s also worth a big bid if you need WRs.
Corey Davis (65%)
The stats weren’t there this week but the opportunity was. Davis earned 10 targets in his return to action and has a favorable schedule going forward. Those 10 targets were more than any other Titans player, including Delanie Walker, received. Spend up if you need help.
Jamison Crowder (51%)
He’s now gotten double-digit targets in back-to-back games, including 11 in Week 10. Terrelle Pryor hasn’t had more than five targets since Week 6. I think a modest bid is worthwhile.
Dontrelle Inman (99%)
Now we’ve crossed the line into the dart-throw tier. As noted at Rotoworld, Inman plays outside, which means he’s on the field for more snaps than Kendall Wright, who’s usually in the slot. The Bears also have the fourth-best schedule for the next three weeks. The downside is that John Fox would probably prefer to run the ball 50 times a game. The volume — and accuracy — of targets is questionable. Small bid.
Josh Doctson (74%)
Doctson earned a season-high seven targets, and his targets have now increased three weeks in a row. He’s not done much with those targets yet though. From here on out, I’m only making small bids or better yet, waiting for first-come-first-served waivers.
Kenny Golladay (89%)
He only managed three targets in his return to action but was more involved than Marvin Jones. A bottom-10 schedule over the next three weeks should temper your enthusiasm.
Brandon Coleman (97%)
New Orleans has morphed into a running team, but Coleman appears to have passed Willie Snead on the depth chart. Snead played just 18 snaps in Week 9 and didn’t register a stat in Week 10. Coleman only registered a single catch in Week 10 though, so don’t get excited.
Bruce Ellington (100%)
He’s worth an add if Will Fuller misses time. The Texans have the third-best WR schedule over the next three weeks.
Brandon LaFell (96%)
I guess I’d rather have him than John Ross if I absolutely needed a few points. Has the second-worst schedule for the next three weeks, however, and probably won’t be featured like this again.