This weekend NASCAR heads to Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, Califormina. As usual, I’ll give you my NASCAR DFS picks, fades, and projections. Also, the NASCAR DFS Multi-Lineup Optimizer, Sim Scores, and Splits apps will be updated for your NASCAR DFS needs shortly after final practice.
For betting insights into the race, check out my piece on The Action Network. In that article, I’ll highlight my favorite NASCAR bets for Sunday’s race. Also, be sure to check out longtime RotoViz friend P.J. Walsh’s article on the top prop bets for Sunday’s race as he fills in for Matthew Freedman.
Make sure to check out the NASCAR DFS Auto Club Speedway early-week podcast for slate dynamics and what data to focus on, and the post-qualifying episode of On the Daily DFS where I talk about the crazy situation that happened with qualifying this weekend. RotoViz Live will also air three hours before lineups lock, at 12:30pm ET/9:30am PT Sunday morning. On RotoViz Live, I’ll break down almost every driver — certainly far more than I can touch on in this article — and answer all your NASCAR DFS questions for Sunday’s race.
If you’re new to daily fantasy NASCAR, or simply need a refresher, check out the large oval section of my track types article. Brush up on your general GPP strategy and game theory if you want to have a shot at taking down first place. If you’re more of a cash game player, check out how to target high floor drivers, and remember to find any potential race dominators.
Let’s get to the NASCAR DFS picks and projections for Auto Club Speedway!
NASCAR DFS MODEL PROJECTIONS for Auto Club Speedway
The model projections assume that the driver finishes the race – hence why you don’t see any average finishing positions worse than about 31st. The Pts column shows the average projected DraftKings points for races when the driver finishes the race.
|Martin Truex Jr||1||10.04||31.91||19.01||42.4||10800||28.5%|
|Ricky Stenhouse Jr||16||18.34||0.46||3.05||24.97||7500||10.3%|
|Darrell Wallace Jr||19||21.74||0.21||0.9||20.02||6400||9.2%|
Now on to the NASCAR DFS picks for Sunday!
NASCAR DFS PICKS – CASH GAMES
Jimmie Johnson ($9000) — Johnson showed some speed in final practice, posting the 11th best 10-lap average and the 10th best 15-lap average. The model likes Johnson as the 13th or 14th best driver this weekend, but that’s still around 20 place differential points and 30 or so finishing position points. Fifty-plus points from a $9k driver is just fine for cash. He also has a nice floor starting 33rd out of 37 cars.
Daniel Suarez ($7000) — This is a price-sensitive pick. With Suarez, you’re getting a guy whose last eight non-DNF large oval races average 15.8. The model thinks he’ll finish around 15th as well, which would give him 44 DK points at a cost of only $7000. That should help you fit in the big guns.
Kasey Kahne ($6100) — I think the debate for cash games this weekend will be do you pay down for guys like Cole Whitt or Ross Chastain, or pay a little more for Kasey Kahne. I’m choosing to go with Kahne for a few reasons. First, the floor between all these drivers is the same, so I want upside in this pick. Kahne has a car that’s in the mid-to-late 20s in speed, while Chastain and Whitt have cars no better than 32nd. Also, I think the dominators could be spread out a bit with Martin Truex Jr. on pole, Kyle Busch starting 2nd who probably has a faster car than Truex, and Harvick starting 10th who has the fastest car of them all. And don’t forget about Kyle Larson who is the defending race winner and was quick in practice as well. As such, I think it’s only a one dominator cash game week, and five place differential plays. So give me Kahne who can actually move forward into the mid-to-late 20s, and probably pick up a few more spots as other quicker drivers have issues.
NASCAR DFS PICKS – GPPS
Kyle Busch ($10,300) — Harvick has the fastest car, but Busch has the advantage of early track position and is probably quicker than Truex. Truex will draw some ownership just by being on the pole, and Harvick will draw ownership by having the best 10- and 15-lap average times in final practice. Busch is a great upside GPP play.
Kyle Larson ($10,000) — Speaking of upside, I think Kyle Larson has a car that can win this race. He had the fourth best 15-lap average and is the defending race winner. He’ll probably be the lowest owned of the Big Four (Harvick, Busch, Truex, Larson), but has race winning and dominating upside. That’s a great GPP combo.
Clint Bowyer ($8000) — The model likes Bowyer this weekend, projecting him with an average finish of 14.12. But again, that’s average. His upside is probably in the top-10 which would give him 50+ DraftKings points at an $8k salary. With so many cheaper drivers like Suarez and Alex Bowman starting farther back, I think Bowyer could be a bit underowned. However, he is starting 26th, so he’ll still draw plenty of ownership.
NASCAR DFS Auto Club FADES
Joey Logano ($9400) — The Penske cars have struggled a bit this weekend and Logano is unlikely to dominate a portion of this race with so many other drivers faster than him. Thus, a sixth place starting position is too far forward when there are tons of place differential plays available this weekend. I’ll have no exposure to Logano.