NASCAR DFS Picks, Fades, Projections for Kansas

NASCAR DFS Picks

This weekend NASCAR heads to Kansas Speedway for another Saturday night race with a compressed weekend schedule. As always, I’ll give you my NASCAR DFS picks, fades, and projections for this weekend’s race. Also, the NASCAR DFS Multi-Lineup Optimizer, Sim Scores, and Splits apps are updated for your NASCAR DFS needs.

For betting insights into the race, check out my piece at The Action Network. In that article, I’ll highlight my favorite NASCAR bets for Kansas. Also, be sure to check out Matthew Freedman’s article on the top prop bets for Saturday’s race.

If you’re new to daily fantasy NASCAR, or simply need a refresher, check out the large oval section of my track types article. Brush up on your general GPP strategy and game theory if you want to have a shot at taking down first place. If you’re more of a cash game player, check out how to target high floor drivers, and remember to find any potential race dominators.

Let’s get to the NASCAR DFS picks and projections for Kansas!

NASCAR DFS MODEL PROJECTIONS FOR Kansas

The model projections assume that the driver finishes the race – hence why you don’t see any average finishing positions worse than about 32nd. The Pts column shows the average projected DraftKings points for races when the driver finishes the race.

DriverStartFinishLLFLPtsSalOwn
Kevin Harvick15.7453.0632.45631170053.80%
Ryan Blaney26.8241.5819.2852.39880019.80%
Kyle Busch36.2548.8730.662.021120031.00%
Aric Almirola49.578.137.134.44860013.80%
Brad Keselowski58.4215.119.3540.61970013.10%
Denny Hamlin66.628.1310.5844.09950011.60%
Martin Truex Jr79.7936.8323.4652.351080015.00%
Kurt Busch88.363.976.3239.4384009.90%
Joey Logano99.4131.1114.7449.33990014.00%
Chris Buescher1015.910.772.0623.4580015.30%
Paul Menard1115.350.861.9125.46700010.20%
Erik Jones1210.92.138.438.94810018.00%
William Byron1314.711.062.6129.15660010.70%
Daniel Suarez1411.721.41.9835.91680021.90%
Ryan Newman1514.481.93.1532.1790010.80%
Ricky Stenhouse Jr1615.271.112.7231.09730010.10%
Chase Elliott1710.370.752.9641.931030022.10%
AJ Allmendinger1819.840.21.0822.91650010.10%
Alex Bowman1916.250.663.6232.48770020.40%
David Ragan2019.310.111.1425.97600014.30%
Darrell Wallace Jr2118.750.140.9228610010.70%
Kyle Larson2211.532.7414.550.871060038.90%
Jimmie Johnson2317.70.832.0332.82930011.80%
Jamie McMurray2416.770.561.5935.41760011.40%
Austin Dillon2517.380.470.6134.66740012.50%
Ty Dillon2622.130.20.726.14570012.00%
Corey Lajoie2729.480.060.312.2151003.10%
Ross Chastain2826.570.070.2719.0249006.00%
Gray Gaulding2928.620.060.2415.8945002.50%
Reed Sorenson3028.90.060.1816.348002.30%
Landon Cassill3127.360.050.2520.4147007.50%
B.J. McLeod3231.330.040.1113.4
Clint Bowyer3312.811.967.6455.69900047.00%
Kasey Kahne3420.750.40.8837.03630014.50%
Matt Kenseth3519.451.122.5641.66710014.00%
Michael McDowell3622.170.341.5336.51540033.00%
Matt DiBenedetto3724.50.110.532.28520025.30%
Timmy Hill3831.410.040.0919.2246002.00%

Now on to the NASCAR DFS picks for Saturday!

NASCAR DFS PICKS – CASH GAMES

Kevin Harvick ($11,700) — Harvick could be priced at $15,000 this weekend and I’d still play him in cash. He starts on the pole and has led 40 percent of the laps at 1.5- to 2-mile ovals this year. At Auto Club Speedway, he was charging to the front until crashing while racing with Kyle Larson. Removing that race, he’s led an average of 54 percent of laps at large ovals, has fastest laps on nearly one-quarter of laps run, and has an average finish of 1.3. If he replicates those averages this weekend, that would give him over 110 DraftKings points.

Clint Bowyer ($9000) — Bowyer did not get to turn a qualifying lap, and as a result will start 33rd in Saturday night’s race. Removing DNFs and the Las Vegas race, where Bowyer suffered a loose wheel, he has the ninth-best driver rating at large ovals this year. Bowyer has one of the highest floors this weekend, and his ceiling is immense too. With only 267 laps and Harvick’s probably dominance, forgo an extra potential dominator and start him.

Kyle Larson ($10,600) — The coinflip this weekend is do you start Kyle Busch or Larson in cash this weekend. I’m of the ilk that wants to start Larson for a few reasons. First, he’s $600 cheaper. Second, there’s a bit more safety starting 22nd than 3rd — even without incidents. If Kyle Busch finishes 5th and Larson finishes 6th, Larson crushes Busch in DK points, and that’s much more likley than the alternative. The only issue is if Busch leads enough laps, but I’m willing to discount that with only 267 laps instead of 325+ laps, and with Harvick starting on pole. At the track most similar to Kansas — Las Vegas — Harvick led 80 percent of laps while starting second to Ryan Blaney‘s pole position. This weekend Harvick starts 1st and Blaney 2nd, meaning dominator points outside of Harvick should be hard to come by. Removing dominator points, Larson gets the nod over Busch, by a comfortable margin, especially factoring in salary.

NASCAR DFS PICKS – GPPS 

Kyle Busch ($11,200)  — While I did downplay Busch in cash, if something happens to Harvick, Busch is the top driver to benefit in terms of dominator potential. Busch is second this year in dominator points at large ovals, and posted top-two times in 10- and 15-lap averages in the only practice session. There’s also the chance he could just flat outrace Harvick, so you can’t ignore him this weekend completely.

Erik Jones ($8100) — Jones projects really well in both the model and Sim Scores this weekend. The model gives Jones an average finish of 10.9, while the Sim Scores give him a median of 11.0. His range of outcomes is essentially identical to Chase Elliott. Removing DNFs, the Sim Scores show Jones’ ceiling/median/floor is 6/11/19 while Elliott’s is 6/11/14, and we’re not worried about floor in GPPs. Jones is $2200 cheaper.

Daniel Suarez ($6800) — If you want even more value, go with Jones’ fellow second-year teammate. Suarez has run well in his only incident-free Kansas race, finishing a then-career-best seventh after starting 15th and posting the 12th best 10-lap average. This weekend, Suarez starts 14th and posted the 12th-best 10-lap average.

NASCAR DFS Kansas FADES

Paul Menard ($7000) — I think I’m going to be pretty different here and fade Menard, while I think a lot of people like him this weekend. However, Menard only posted the 15th-best 10-lap average out of 22 cars, and the 10th-best 15 lap average out of well fewer than 22 cars. Yes, Menard finished ninth at Las Vegas, but he also practice better there, started one spot farther back, and was cheaper then. I think he’ll be over-owned relative to the salary-adjusted upside he has.