A Historical Perspective On #SFB8 Scoring

Scott Fish Bowl

Last week Anthony Amico presented some early projections for the upcoming Scott Fish Bowl (#SFB8). To test if the #SFB8 scoring format adversely altered end-of-season rankings on an annual basis, I calculated the final #SFB8 finishes for non-quarterback positions over the past five seasons, using 2018 scoring. Additionally, I tested each position to see if they were at maximum capacity under the #SFB8 rules.

TOP-36 HISTORICAL FINISHES UNDER #SFB8 SCORING

Although the scoring format for #SFB8 incorporates points-per-first-down scoring, there is a marked difference when compared to the #SFB7 rules. Last season, elite bell-cow running backs ruled the roost, and elite wide receivers and tight ends were not far behind. However, looking at the positions that finished top 36 overall in #SFB8 over the previous five years,1 scoring appears to be balanced.

SFB

The biggest change for #SFB8 is the half point per reception, which ostensibly boosts WRs and pass catching RBs. Additionally, the TE scoring has been reduced slightly compared to last season. Despite these changes, the scoring format is still tilted towards RBs. Six of the top-ten non-QB finishers were RBs, with DeAndre HopkinsAntonio BrownRob Gronkowski, and Travis Kelce rounding out the top-ten under #SFB8 scoring last season.

SFB8 2017 Top36

Looking at the historical finishes from 2013-2016, 2015 appears to be the largest outlier. Only one RB (Devonta Freeman) cracked the top-10, whereas 6 WRs and 3 TEs accounted for the other nine positions. Additionally, it was the only season over the last 5 where WRs finished first and second under #SFB8 scoring.2

SFB8 Top 36 (2013-2016)

A Note On Quarterback Scoring

One of the more interesting wrinkles in #SFB8 is the twist in QB scoring. Unlike #SFB7 where interceptions were not penalized, interceptions will now cost you -4 points3. The scoring change dampens the outsize impact QBs had in #SFB7, and is reflected in the final standings.4 A five year sample indicates that at least 17 QBs have finished in the top-36, and as many as 21 QBs have done so.

SFB8 Finishes W/QB

As seen below, fewer QBs break the 350 point threshold under #SFB8 scoring rules.

SFB8 Positional Finishes

#SFB7 scoring rules saw almost all of the top-ten QBs score above 350 points.

SFB7 Positional Finishes

SO WHAT DO YOU DO WITH THIS INFO?

If you’re looking for information regarding historical finishes under #SFB8 scoring rules, you’ve come to the right place. Utilizing Anthony Amico’s early #SFB8 projections, I compared his forecasted finishes for QBs, WRs, RBs, and TEs with their prior finishes. I have found that QB, WR and TE appear to be the “stickiest” positions, as established veteran players consistently finish in the top-36. By comparison, RB sees a bit more turnover and is the shallowest of the three positions.

RUNNING BACK

It should come as no surprise that the elite bell-cow RBs clock in as the best options for those drafting with the first few picks. Le’Veon Bell, David Johnson, Saquon Barkley, and Todd Gurley are projected to outscore all other non-QB options and make for safe selections. Most interestingly, eight rookie RBs are expected to crack the top-36 under the #SFB8 scoring rules. RBs who are utilized heavily in the passing game get a bump when compared to #SFB7 scoring, given that players are awarded 0.5 points per reception. Players such as Kerryon Johnson, James White, Isaiah Crowell, and C.J. Anderson just miss the top-36, but make for strong selections.

NameProjected 2018 Score2017 Score2016 Score2015 Score2014 Score2013 Score
Le'Veon Bell368.1355.6331.9114.7386.0226.9
David Johnson366.013.5430.8227.30.00.0
Saquon Barkley352.00.00.00.00.00.0
Todd Gurley347.1404.3210.2226.40.00.0
Ezekiel Elliott329.8220.7362.40.00.00.0
Kareem Hunt317.0309.70.00.00.00.0
LeSean McCoy308.1275.1309.8193.7229.9357.6
Melvin Gordon307.5299.1275.1120.30.00.0
Dalvin Cook303.470.90.00.00.00.0
Jerick McKinnon300.1178.1145.483.494.80.0
Alvin Kamara280.6320.90.00.00.00.0
Lamar Miller270.6205.5208.1237.4243.9128.9
Rashaad Penny268.00.00.00.00.00.0
Leonard Fournette259.6242.70.00.00.00.0
Royce Freeman253.90.00.00.00.00.0
Devonta Freeman252.3217.2300.6327.982.80.0
Sony Michel239.90.00.00.00.00.0
Aaron Jones235.787.00.00.00.00.0
Kenyan Drake224.6145.850.50.00.00.0
Christian McCaffrey218.8219.10.00.00.00.0
Derrick Henry217.6151.0116.70.00.00.0
Ronald Jones211.20.00.00.00.00.0
Duke Johnson200.3211.6140.2154.80.00.0
Joe Mixon199.4152.30.00.00.00.0
Alex Collins197.0193.039.40.00.00.0
Tevin Coleman193.1174.2195.652.20.00.0
Dion Lewis192.0216.555.2119.70.00.0
Derrius Guice190.90.00.00.00.00.0
Marshawn Lynch190.3181.20.093.2328.3299.3
Jordan Howard187.1222.7258.60.00.00.0
Mark Ingram173.6289.5256.7213.4205.464.9
Nyheim Hines168.50.00.00.00.00.0
Marlon Mack166.7108.30.00.00.00.0
Nick Chubb160.00.00.00.00.00.0
Tarik Cohen157.0142.90.00.00.00.0
Rex Burkhead155.0128.384.922.419.10.0

WIDE RECEIVER

As Jacob Rickrode has put it, WR is at maximum capacity. Although Odell Beckham Jr.,  Allen Robinson and Julian Edelman may have missed playing in 2017 due to injury, none of these players are expected to miss a beat once they return. Most interestingly, former teammates Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb are projected to ascend to top-36 status in 2018, Corey Davis and DeVante Parker are forecast to crack the top-36 for the first time in their respective career, and Amari Cooper is set to improve upon his 2015 finish. Both Cooper Kupp and Kenny Stills barely miss the cutoff, and make for good selections in the middle rounds of your #SFB8 draft.

NameProjected 2018 Score2017 Score2016 Score2015 Score2014 Score2013 Score
Antonio Brown336.19295.3286.8360.7363.6289.4
Odell Beckham Jr.293.330279.7304.52810
Keenan Allen292.77264.211.8147161.3215.1
A.J. Green271.32220.8173.9264.2197.6290.1
Julio Jones263.86241.9250.4349.6285.3104.2
DeAndre Hopkins258.34298.3186.4317.1223.5137.2
T.Y. Hilton255.11168.1261.3201.4251202.3
Adam Thielen250.2228.2185.233.827.20
JuJu Smith-Schuster249.84188.20000
Doug Baldwin246.7207.8234.4253.4154.5150.8
Josh Gordon244.7800050.3304.9
Demaryius Thomas241.53192.9210.3250.4319.9306
Amari Cooper236.3148.9214.3201.500
Tyreek Hill229.06227.7209000
Davante Adams228.64208233.791.393.10
Mike Evans222.41195.4296.6207.1234.10
Michael Thomas220.54241.5244.7000
Alshon Jeffery218.67189.4140.6153.2249.6275.1
Stefon Diggs215.76187.7175.3139.300
Allen Robinson205.940188.3294.5105.80
Larry Fitzgerald205.8241.94221.3262.5141.4220.9
Golden Tate203.67203203.1192.9239.1175.9
Corey Davis195.23630000
Marvin Jones195.18216.6165158.40182.7
Julian Edelman193.350214.3164204.6227.2
Pierre Garcon192.2182.5187.6171.2143.2253.5
Randall Cobb192.13141.4138.3185.9287.9100.1
Jarvis Landry189.75238214.8253.86171.80
Emmanuel Sanders189.37106197.7216.4287.3167
Brandin Cooks189.1210.7230.3235.1127.30
Rishard Matthews186.58147.7202.5127.23690.3
Michael Crabtree185.12160.3222.8211.2145.350.4
Jordy Nelson183.1129.7289.20314.4251.9
DeVante Parker179.68118143.490.400
Sammy Watkins179.56143.379209.2191.50
Robby Anderson174.87186.5105.9000

TIGHT END

Anthony Amico forecasts that the TE position will remain mostly unchanged from previous seasons. Established veterans with a healthy target share will dominate the scoring and the composite #SFB8 projections place Rob Gronkowski as the top-scoring WR/TE this year.

NameProjected 2018 Score2017 Score2016 Score2015 Score2014 Score2013 Score
Rob Gronkowski345.9284.4116.0307.6326.4153.2
Travis Kelce260.6288.5278.5233.5228.20.0
Jordan Reed254.00.0211.6302.2119.5145.7
Zach Ertz248.5250.4225.6211.3188.2131.9
Delanie Walker236.9222.5224.1297.4209.0183.1
Kyle Rudolph203.1190.2259.0153.572.191.3
Jack Doyle200.5207.0179.431.248.80.0
Evan Engram200.1211.60.00.00.00.0
Greg Olsen198.355.1261.3281.4276.8234.6
Jimmy Graham196.7203.0238.3149.5287.9364.5
Eric Ebron192.7164.4182.2157.769.80.0
Austin Hooper178.6137.680.10.00.00.0

QUARTERBACK

The QB top-24 is full of familiar faces, however mobile QBs fare better than their statuesque counterparts. Note that QBs who are prone to turning the ball over will be penalized. Bear in mind that #SFB8 is a superflex league, and traditional streaming QB candidates will not be available on the waiver wire. Despite the superflex setup, waiting on QB can still be a viable draft strategy. If your league mates are intent on deploying a QB-heavy approach, feel free to lag behind in the QB2 slot and take advantage of the value created at the other positions. Note that among the eight QBs who aren’t projected to crack top-24 scoring under #SFB8 rules, they project as superior options to several top-tier RBs, WRs, and TEs. For example, Sam Darnold projects to finish as QB30, but finishes with a higher total score than: Demaryius Thomas, Sony Michel, and Delanie Walker. So don’t let the increased demand for signal callers pressure you into spending multiple high equity picks at the QB position. Pick your spot in context with how your draft is unfolding, and instead look to fill up the nine other starting spots with fantasy studs.

NameProjected 2018 Score2017 Score2016 Score2015 Score2014 Score2013 Score
Tom Brady401.48347.38317.56409.6335.12285.92
Aaron Rodgers396.33154.6466.52367.24434.14195.94
Russell Wilson363.49417.42299.56413.56379.6329.68
Cam Newton360.96334.48276.26477.08291.48343.66
Andrew Luck356.950361.7145.34413.78334.08
Patrick Mahomes356.700000
Ben Roethlisberger356.48289.74291.76240.42365.72298.84
Matthew Stafford350.13324.14317.28336.78281.18306.58
Marcus Mariota348.09217.48308.74242.3200
Alex Smith345.2348.68248.78310.14258.8299.22
Carson Wentz336.65350.74228.68000
Dak Prescott332.87291.16345.28000
Jameis Winston327.08235.16290.4297.5200
Andy Dalton326.96247.2295.14290.6239.62323.56
Drew Brees320.7294.06383.82348.7336.68416.68
Deshaun Watson315.1195.860000
Kirk Cousins313.05320.12334.98337.3493.90
Case Keenum301.14276.38106.6454.120116.6
Matt Ryan295.74253.6415.96255.94313.26268.4
Eli Manning292.02210.32251.18335.54309151.82
Blake Bortles291.2279.18295.1364.02163.580
Philip Rivers287.15308.9287.94311.48296.04332.82
Jared Goff284.43304.7652.36000
Derek Carr280.64232.94320.72312.782210

  1. Note that all my data goes through week 17 of each season.  (back)
  2. Congratulations Antonio Brown and Julio Jones!  (back)
  3. -6 if it’s a pick-six  (back)
  4. By comparison, 25 QBs finished in the top-36 under #SFB7 scoring  (back)