Scott Fish Bowl: RotoViz’s Guide To #SFB12 Scoring And Strategy
Image Credit: Ken Murray/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Josh Allen.

The 2022 Scott Fish Bowl (#SFB12) kicks off today! The scoring format is mainly unchanged from prior Fish Bowls, with the largest changes impacting the kicker and quarterback positions.

Matt Spencer ran several simulations and noted that only 42 points separate draft positions in average projected points, underscoring the balance in scoring for this format. Before I jump into the changes, here’s a quick primer for those of you who are new to the Scott Fish Bowl and the points-per-first-down (PP1D) format.

Refresher on Points Per First Down Scoring

For starters, it’s important to note that first downs are simply a function of raw volume. The more volume a player sees, the more likely they are to rack up first downs. Targets and touches are the lifeblood of fantasy scoring, and it should be no surprise that the skill players who lead all #SFB12 scorers also handle a significant chunk of their team’s volume. QB, WR, and TE are the “stickiest” positions, as established veteran players continuously finish in the top 36. Meanwhile, RB sees a bit more turnover and is the shallowest of the three positions.

A Historical Perspective On #SFB12 Scoring

Kickers here receive a slight boost, given that they receive an additional point for each field goal and extra point made. As you can see in the chart above (courtesy of Mike Beers), this makes them viable starters in a pinch.

Like last year, QBs accrue points for each completed pass (or lose points for each incompletion), in effect providing a bonus for QBs who complete at least two-thirds of their passes. I used the RotoViz Advanced Stats Explorer to find quarterbacks who achieved this threshold on a season-long basis.

Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, and Kirk Cousins all missed the cut-off, but were among the top scorers last season. Under #SFB12 rules, Herbert finished with the third most points last season, with Mahomes finishing seventh and Cousins finishing thirteenth. Note that on a points-per-game basis, all three quarterbacks finished the season as top-10 scorers. I wouldn’t let the bonus scoring dictate your quarterback selection in the draft.

Strategy Notes

I converted our scoring projections into #SFB12 scoring.[1] Those can be found at the end of the post. Note that projections are fragile and should serve to help guide your player selections as you go through the draft.

Running Back

The elite bell-cow RBs clock in as the best options for those not selecting quarterback with the first few picks. Much like PPR or half-PPR scoring formats, elite RBs who are able to stay fully healthy put up gaudy point-per-game numbers and end-of-season totals. Per our #SFB12 projections, five of the top-10 non-quarterback fantasy scorers are RBs. Our projections suggest that Jonathan Taylor is primed for yet another massive season. The gulf between Taylor and other top RB options is quite wide. The second-highest scoring RB, Derrick Henry, falls approximately 76 points short of Taylor. Christian McCaffrey, Najee Harris, and Saquon Barkley round out the top five.

So what do you do in the event that you can’t draft one of the elite RBs? Our projections suggest that players such as Kareem Hunt, Tony Pollard, AJ Dillon, and Darrell Henderson should provide decent standalone value with the upside of taking over workhorse duties if the starter ahead of them goes down.

Alternatively, targeting RBs who are tasked with carrying the rock instead of catching passes is a good way to get usable RB points. Our projections indicate that RBs such as Devin Singletary, Ronald Jones, Elijah Mitchell, and Melvin Gordon are set to outperform their PPR projected finish under #SFB12 scoring rules. Meanwhile, pass-catching specialists such as J.D McKissic or Nyheim Hines could disappoint in the Fish Bowl.

Wide Receiver

Elite WRs may not carry the same raw scoring upside as their RB counterparts do, but they can offer a good way to get leverage on the rest of your league mates. Several WRs offer a weekly ceiling that is comparable to that of the elite RBs. Our projections peg Justin Jefferson, Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams, and Ja’Marr Chase as the cream of the crop.

Note that WR scoring trails off quite sharply relative to PPR scoring. Although you can potentially find viable production later in the draft, you don’t want to cap your upside if you miss rostering one of the few WRs who have a 20+ ppg season within their range of outcomes. If you’re able to roster two or three of the elite WRs coupled with a handful of breakout candidates, you should have a strong edge over the rest of your division at the WR position.

Tight End

Blair Andrews has previously written about the importance of securing an elite TE in this format, and what he’s written still holds true under #SFB12 scoring. Interestingly, the TE premium scoring also pushes up marginally good TEs.

It’s quite likely that later-round draft picks such as TJ Hockenson, Dalton Schultz, Dawson Knox, Zach Ertz, Mike Gesicki, and Pat Freiermuth might provide solid floors and come at a nice discount to the TEs selected in the higher leverage rounds.

Kicker

I’d like to thank Matt Spencer for sharing some insight into how to play the kicker spot. Matt notes:

The average field goal made last season was 37.7 yards.  You can approximate the decimal kicker scoring by 3.77 times the project FGM. Upping this to an even 4.0 (5.0 total) projected points per FGM you will capture some of the upside at the top of the position with the top guys hitting 200 fantasy points.

Additionally, all the “optimal” starting lineups he simulated include one or two kickers. To get an idea of which kickers to draft, FFPC Superflex ADP can serve as our guide. High-stakes drafters appear to be comfortable selecting kickers such as Justin Tucker, Harrison Butker, Evan McPherson, Daniel Carlson, and Tyler Bass in the later rounds[2] of superflex drafts.

If you’re facing a steep drop-off at the other skill players, I’d suggest grabbing a handful of kickers given the bonus scoring for extra points and field goals scored. Elite kickers average approximately 12.5 points per game in this format, which is in line with what players such as Michael Pittman and Amari Cooper scored last season. I’d expect kickers to go late in drafts, allowing you to continue to accrue players who offer solid floors as flex plays late in the draft.

Quarterback

The emphasis placed on completions seems to hinder the scoring upside for quarterbacks. QBs who we tend to think of as elite talents, i.e., Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, and Kyler Murray, should all fly off the board in the first two rounds as they appear to provide a safer floor than several other QBs. Additionally, mobile QBs benefit from the half point per first down they can pick up while rushing.

For example, Jalen Hurts rushed for an absurd 56 first downs and 10 touchdowns, and was seventh overall in rushing first-down production ahead of running backs such as Ezekiel Elliott, David Montgomery, and Austin Ekeler.

Although statuesque signal-callers don’t offer a similar ceiling as their elite mobile counterparts, they do offer reasonable upside. Last season, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford, and Kirk Cousins all averaged more points per game than Hurts and Jackson.

Ideally, you’d want to roster a signal-caller who’s completing a large percentage of their throws and avoiding sacks. Offenses that are able to stay on script during a game tend to minimize the risk of interceptions, so you want to target QBs on teams with lofty Vegas win totals as a way to minimize the risk of negative scoring.

When To Take Your QB

Using the Win The Flex app and FFPC Superflex ADP as a proxy for #SFB12 scoring, it should come as no surprise that drafters will be better off taking their QB1 early.

Although the tool suggests that there is positive equity[3] for QBs all the way up to pick 60, you’re opening yourself up to higher variance options. Last year, several late-round quarterbacks such as Daniel Jones, Jared Goff, Matt Ryan, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Carson Wentz had shaky floors and were highly matchup dependent. Relying on late-round quarterbacks to anchor your QB1 and Superflex spots was a dangerous game, as the reward wasn’t worth the risk of a dud performance.

Opportunity Cost and The QB Conundrum

Note that those aforementioned players are fine QB2 selections, but I wouldn’t be drafting them as my primary signal-caller. It is possible to structure your roster where you’re able to start a higher upside non-QB player in your superflex spot, but it’d require your draft to fall in a very specific order. Elite QBs tend to present a solid floor in addition to a high ceiling, so I find it easier to draft one elite QB early and then draft a higher upside option later in the draft.

Using the FFPC Dashboard as a proxy, we can see that early QB picks push a lot of attractive players down several rounds, meaning you can grab your QB early and still snag talented flex-eligible players in the early rounds. The opportunity cost of taking an early QB is thus not as great as you might expect.

If you’re drafting any of the later-round QBs as your QB1, you’ll have to bypass selecting players such as Mike Evans, Tyreek Hill, and Deebo Samuel. Additionally, you may have to pass on other appealing options such as Breece Hall, Travis Etienne, T.J. Hockenson, D.J. Moore, and Cam Akers to select your QB2 without running the risk of getting shut out of the position entirely.

Can You Go Zero RB In #SFB12?

One of the early stud receivers,[4] the top TE available, and two high-upside quarterbacks would be an ideal start in the first few rounds. There’s some wiggle room in the selection process here, as I’d expect the high-upside quarterbacks to fly off the board slightly early, so make sure you’re adjusting to how your draft is unfolding. You can round out that construction by taking another TE and snagging a couple of stud WRs.[5]

Early draft slots could consider taking an elite QB instead of drafting any of the early RB values that fall to them. Given that drafters are more interested in gravitating toward RBs in this format, Zero-RB drafters could potentially find value at all of the other skill positions. Only a handful of WRs finish near the 20 PPG game mark and filling your starting roster out with the few viable options would be one way to earn a massive edge on your opponents while also ensuring you have a unique roster come playoff time.

I’ve gone Zero RB every year since my first appearance in the Fish Bowl[6] and made the playoffs in 2017,[7] 2018, 2020, and 2021.[8] Although going Zero RB in this format leaves you with a low expected value, you can find potential starting RBs later in the draft or via waivers.[9]

I have found that not having a reliable QB2 was more of a death blow than not having a reliable RB2, since I either flexed the wrong skill player[10] or played the wrong QB.[11] Even last season I was able to draft Rhamondre Stevenson and Sony Michel very late and found usable starts down the stretch from players such as Boston Scott.

Whatever strategy you choose to deploy come draft day, I wish you the best of luck! Don’t forget to donate to your favorite charities/causes!

Projections

Quarterback

TeamPosPlayerSFB12SFB12 Pos RankPPRPPR Pos RankCompIncompletionsPercentageTotal 1D
BUFQBJosh Allen429143114202176630
LACQBJustin Herbert417239854442156715
KCQBPatrick Mahomes413340334162066715
ARIQBKyler Murray405440724141976828
PHIQBJalen Hurts402540143511806634
LVQBDerek Carr3946362104241747111
BALQBLamar Jackson385737463351686736
MINQBKirk Cousins374836210402186688
GBQBAaron Rodgers373934513386173698
CINQBJoe Burrow3721037373921866812
TBQBTom Brady362113718441229667
LARQBMatthew Stafford3501234912392196678
DALQBDak Prescott3491336694282186614
MIAQBTua Tagovailoa33014336164072016715
JACQBTrevor Lawrence32515334174051986718
DENQBRussell Wilson32316333183561786715
CHIQBJustin Fields30317338143482036325
TENQBRyan Tannehill29818314193461746715
SFQBTrey Lance29719337153211896329
DETQBJared Goff2832028923382185677
INDQBMatt Ryan2692128725365182679
NEQBMac Jones2632226928342163689
CARQBBaker Mayfield2592329422378212647
NYJQBZach Wilson25724300213772066512
NYGQBDaniel Jones24925302203762226316
CLEQBJacoby Brissett24226289233522036315
NOQBJameis Winston24127276263041926116
WASQBCarson Wentz23128270273491926513
HOUQBDavis Mills2202926029344190648
ATLQBDesmond Ridder149301623115495629
SEAQBGeno Smith138311453414688627
ATLQBMarcus Mariota1243216430191114639
SEAQBDrew Lock1223314833172103637
PITQBKenny Pickett1203415332240133646
PITQBMitchell Trubisky103351153515495624

Running Back

TeamPosPlayerSFB12SFB Pos RankPPRPPR Pos RankTotal 1D
INDRBJonathan Taylor382.013601106
TENRBDerrick Henry305.922763100
CARRBChristian McCaffrey294.83296285
PITRBNajee Harris283.24270592
NYGRBSaquon Barkley279.65270587
LACRBAustin Ekeler268.06271472
TBRBLeonard Fournette266.07261778
CINRBJoe Mixon259.582431082
BALRBJK Dobbins256.892391280
DETRBD'Andre Swift256.410260875
CHIRBDavid Montgomery255.911245978
JACRBTravis Etienne247.7122411175
MINRBDalvin Cook245.9132341376
NYJRBBreece Hall239.2142301473
DENRBJavonte Williams235.0152221571
ARIRBJames Conner230.7162191672
CLERBNick Chubb228.2172082070
LVRBJosh Jacobs224.0182062374
LARRBCam Akers223.3192101867
WASRBAntonio Gibson223.2202101872
GBRBAaron Jones220.9212171762
DALRBEzekiel Elliott211.0221982769
SFRBElijah Mitchell210.1231922868
NORBAlvin Kamara207.0242022461
CLERBKareem Hunt207.0252072156
DALRBTony Pollard205.0262002556
MIARBChase Edmonds205.0272002561
ATLRBCordarrelle Patterson204.3282072154
PHIRBMiles Sanders199.2291922858
BUFRBDevin Singletary190.2301863055
KCRBClyde Edwards-Helaire179.5311773151
GBRBAJ Dillon178.8321723252
NERBDamien Harris172.5331563453
NERBRhamondre Stevenson169.0341573350
LARRBDarrell Henderson Jr148.5351423545
SEARBKenneth Walker146.5361353747
DENRBMelvin Gordon142.1371313845
BUFRBJames Cook141.6381373643
NORBMark Ingram136.7391293944
SEARBRashaad Penny135.8401274141
KCRBRonald Jones II134.8411214244
LACRBIsaiah Spiller127.2421204340
HOURBDameon Pierce122.9431124642
DETRBJamaal Williams119.4441114740
ATLRBTyler Allgeier117.9451144433
LVRBKenyan Drake117.1461144435
WASRBJD McKissic115.8471293928
MINRBAlexander Mattison112.5481064836
HOURBMarlon Mack111.7491025139
PHIRBKenneth Gainwell109.2501035033
BALRBGus Edwards107.851995234
INDRBNyheim Hines101.9521044928
MIARBSony Michel101.853905535
CHIRBKhalil Herbert98.454945331
JACRBJames Robinson96.755925429
TBRBKe'Shawn Vaughn91.056835828
NYGRBMatt Breida90.157875627
ATLRBDamien Williams84.258776026
ARIRBDarrel Williams83.059776025
CARRBChuba Hubbard80.560795924
NERBJames White78.361845722
NYJRBMichael Carter78.062766224
CINRBChris Evans74.463766220
NERBDeVante Parker122.9641396424
WASRBJahan Dotson122.0651386524
WASRBCurtis Samuel121.9661346726
NERBKendrick Bourne121.2671366622
BUFRBJamison Crowder119.5681346724
KCRBMarquez Valdes-Scantling114.2691267020
DETRBDJ Chark Jr114.0701286922
KCRBMecole Hardman111.7711247222
ARIRBAJ Green110.7721257121
GBRBRandall Cobb109.8731237322
DALRBJames Washington106.8741217421
NORBChris Olave106.3751197521
INDRBParris Campbell104.8761177621
HOURBNico Collins104.0771177620
TENRBNick Westbrook-Ikhine101.9781157820
HOURBJohn Metchie101.6791157821
DALRBJalen Tolbert100.7801138120
JACRBLaviska Shenault100.6811128422
DETRBJameson Williams100.5821128418
JACRBZay Jones99.7831138120
BALRBDevin Duvernay99.6841148022
NYGRBSterling Shepard99.4851138121
CLERBDavid Bell98.4861098619
INDRBAshton Dulin97.4871088918
CHIRBByron Pringle96.8881098619
ATLRBBryan Edwards96.8881098619
CARRBAndre Roberts94.4901079020
NYGRBDarius Slayton93.2911059118
CLERBDonovan Peoples-Jones92.8921059118
CLERBAnthony Schwartz92.0931039318
SEARBD'Wayne Eskridge92.0931039318
MIARBCedrick Wilson87.9951009518
BUFRBIsaiah McKenzie86.996999619
GBRBSammy Watkins86.197989718
CHIRBEquanimeous St Brown84.098959816
LACRBJosh Palmer82.699939917
PHIRBQuez Watkins81.31009110015
DENRBKJ Hamler78.71018810114

Wide Receiver

TeamPosPlayerSFB12SFB Pos RankPPRPPR Pos RankTotal 1D
MINWRJustin Jefferson3371372160
LARWRCooper Kupp3242362263
LVWRDavante Adams3083346361
CINWRJa'Marr Chase2984326451
DALWRCeeDee Lamb2775307552
MIAWRTyreek Hill2666298652
SFWRDeebo Samuel26572801058
TBWRMike Evans2588289850
TBWRChris Godwin2589290752
BUFWRStefon Diggs25310284950
CINWRTee Higgins250112781146
CARWRDJ Moore243122731247
LACWRKeenan Allen236132701353
LACWRMike Williams231142571443
INDWRMichael Pittman Jr225152541645
MIAWRJaylen Waddle225162551547
KCWRJuJu Smith-Schuster223172501845
HOUWRBrandin Cooks222182521745
ARIWRMarquise Brown221192461943
PHIWRAJ Brown218202442041
DENWRJerry Jeudy211212362241
PITWRDiontae Johnson208222402148
LVWRHunter Renfrow208232352344
PHIWRDeVonta Smith208242302437
CHIWRDarnell Mooney204252292540
TENWRTreylon Burks202262252638
WASWRTerry McLaurin200272252639
MINWRAdam Thielen197282222840
JACWRChristian Kirk196292212938
GBWRAllen Lazard195302193038
CLEWRAmari Cooper193312193039
NYJWRElijah Moore190322143238
NOWRMichael Thomas190332143238
SEAWRDK Metcalf188342103436
TENWRRobert Woods186352103437
DENWRCourtland Sutton182362023634
NYJWRGarrett Wilson179372013736
SEAWRTyler Lockett174381963834
DETWRAmon-Ra St Brown173391943935
PITWRChase Claypool171401943935
LARWRAllen Robinson169411904134
ATLWRDrake London164421854232
SFWRBrandon Aiyuk161431804331
BALWRRashod Bateman156441764432
BUFWRGabriel Davis152451694528
NYGWRKenny Golladay151461694528
NYGWRKadarius Toney149471694531
ARIWRRondale Moore148481615127
LARWRVan Jefferson148491625027
JACWRMarvin Jones148501674830
TBWRRussell Gage145511634929
NOWRJarvis Landry142521615130
CINWRTyler Boyd142531615129
MINWRKJ Osborn141541565427
NYJWRCorey Davis137551545526
DALWRMichael Gallup136561525626
GBWRChristian Watson135571525626
DENWRTim Patrick133581485825
KCWRSkyy Moore132591485825
CARWRRobby Anderson131601485827
NEWRJakobi Meyers127611456127
ARIWRDeAndre Hopkins126621426225
INDWRAlec Pierce126631426225
NEWRDeVante Parker123641396424
WASWRJahan Dotson122651386524
WASWRCurtis Samuel122661346726
NEWRKendrick Bourne121671366622
BUFWRJamison Crowder120681346724
KCWRMarquez Valdes-Scantling114691267020
DETWRDJ Chark Jr114701286922
KCWRMecole Hardman112711247222
ARIWRAJ Green111721257121
GBWRRandall Cobb110731237322
DALWRJames Washington107741217421
NOWRChris Olave106751197521
INDWRParris Campbell105761177621
HOUWRNico Collins104771177620
TENWRNick Westbrook-Ikhine102781157820
HOUWRJohn Metchie102791157821
DALWRJalen Tolbert101801138120
JACWRLaviska Shenault101811128422
DETWRJameson Williams101821128418
JACWRZay Jones100831138120
BALWRDevin Duvernay100841148022
NYGWRSterling Shepard99851138121
CLEWRDavid Bell98861098619
INDWRAshton Dulin97871088918
CHIWRByron Pringle97881098619
ATLWRBryan Edwards97881098619
CARWRAndre Roberts94901079020
NYGWRDarius Slayton93911059118
CLEWRDonovan Peoples-Jones93921059118
CLEWRAnthony Schwartz92931039318
SEAWRD'Wayne Eskridge92931039318
MIAWRCedrick Wilson88951009518
BUFWRIsaiah McKenzie8796999619
GBWRSammy Watkins8697989718
CHIWREquanimeous St Brown8498959816
LACWRJosh Palmer8399939917
PHIWRQuez Watkins811009110015
DENWRKJ Hamler791018810114

Tight End

TeamPosPlayerSFB12SFB Pos RankPPRPPR Pos RankTotal 1D
BALTEMark Andrews2431272148
KCTETravis Kelce2302260246
ATLTEKyle Pitts2003224337
LVTEDarren Waller1944219439
SFTEGeorge Kittle1825206536
DETTETJ Hockenson1736198639
DALTEDalton Schultz1647186735
BUFTEDawson Knox1458162829
ARITEZach Ertz1409160931
PITTEPat Freiermuth136101541031
MIATEMike Gesicki135111541029
CHITECole Kmet130121501229
PHITEDallas Goedert127131421325
GBTERobert Tonyan127141411426
NETEHunter Henry123151361524
LACTEGerald Everett114161291624
MINTEIrv Smith113171271723
LARTETyler Higbee112181261824
TBTECameron Brate111191241923
TENTEAustin Hooper109201232023
SEATENoah Fant108211212122
DENTEAlbert Okwuegbunam107221212123
WASTELogan Thomas99231122322
JACTEEvan Engram99241122321
INDTEMo Alie-Cox94251062519
CLETEDavid Njoku89261022620
HOUTEBrevin Jordan88271002720
NYJTECJ Uzomah88281002719
NETEJonnu Smith8129883017
NYGTERicky Seals-Jones8030922918
NOTEAdam Trautman7831883017
CINTEHayden Hurst6832763215
LACTEDonald Parham6733763215

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Footnotes

Footnotes
1 Although I ignored the completion percentage bonus for quarterbacks
2 14th and 15th
3 difference between a player’s projected end-of-season rank and his overall ADP rank
4 Justin Jefferson, Cooper Kupp, Ja’Marr Chase
5 assuming the high-end RBs are long gone
6 2017
7 I also finished as the 10th highest scorer in the regular season.
8 I was DOA in #SFB9. My QB1 was Cam Newton, and I lost several matchups by a handful of points.
9 I snagged Phillip Lindsay off waivers in 2018 for example. Unfortunately, James Conner was drafted in my league.
10 I started Tre’Quan Smith over Derek Carr in 2018. Carr scored 30 points, whereas Smith scored 0.
11 I started Blaine Gabbert over Deshone Kizer in 2017. Kizer scored 28.3 points, whereas Gabbert scored 8.3 points.

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